Some thoughts on the possible development of Russian-Chinese cooperation in the light of sanctions imposed on the Kremlin and the likelihood of the outbreak of World War III

 Some thoughts on the possible development of Russian-Chinese cooperation in the light of sanctions imposed on the Kremlin and the likelihood of the outbreak of World War III

Nika Chitadze

Director of the Center for International Studies

President of the George C. Marshall Alumni Union, Georgia - International and Security Research Center 

Professor of the International Black Sea University

 

Amid sanctions imposed on Russia by the international democratic community, the Kremlin's authoritarian regime is seeking allies around the world. In this regard, it is important to consider the fact that the positions of Russia and China will become closer and will give Russia an additional incentive to strengthen relations with China, both militarily and economically, to continue its aggressive policy against Ukraine and the Western world?

According to the Financial Times, China has expressed readiness to provide military support to Russia.

According to the same source, Russia has asked China for assistance with 5 types of equipment, including a surface-to-air missile system for destroying military aircraft. In addition, other categories of weapons that Russia has requested include drones, reconnaissance equipment, armored vehicles, and vehicles used for logistical support. However, the level of assistance and the time when Moscow will receive assistance from Beijing are still unknown.

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg later called on Beijing "not to help Russia and to condemn Russian aggression."

Although China has said it was disinformation about official Moscow asking for military aid to Beijing, on the second day of the war in Ukraine, Chinese officials said they "would not join Western sanctions on Russia."

It is also noteworthy that in early February this year, the leaders of Russia and China discussed the new need for a redeployment of forces around the world.

The leaders of the two countries discussed a common goal and a possible alliance aimed at establishing a new world order, the result of which should be the weakening of the geopolitical influence of the United States and the West.

The ambitious statement by Xi Jinping and Putin spoke of a "trend of redistribution of power in the world", which means reducing the power of the United States and other democracies and strengthening the influence of Russia and China.

At a time when Putin was considering a plan to invade Ukraine, Moscow and Beijing reached a new deal in the oil and gas sector worth a total of $ 117.5 billion. Rosneft, one of Russia's largest companies, said it would export 100 million tonnes of oil to China via Kazakhstan over the next 10 years, while Gazprom said it was ready to supply 10 billion cubic meters of natural gas to China. It is also worth noting that in 2021, trade relations between the two countries showed a record result of $ 147 billion, making China China's largest trading partner.

In view of the above, the question is, to what extent is it possible to strengthen the Russian-Chinese alliance in the conditions of the war in Ukraine? In this case, it can be noted that the development of cooperation between Moscow and Beijing is unlikely due to the following factors. In particular:

Amid ideological or geopolitical confrontation with the United States, economic cooperation between China and the United States is becoming increasingly intense. For example, despite the pandemic, China's trade and economic turnover in 2021 exceeded $ 6 trillion for the first time, and the United States remains China's number one trading partner when Russia was not even among Beijing's top ten trade and economic partners.

Trade turnover between the US and China increased by 28.7% to $ 755.6 billion, accounting for 12% of China's total trade turnover, despite tariffs imposed and political tensions between the two countries.

As for China-EU relations, in the peak of the pandemic rampage in 2020, the trade turnover between the two sides amounted to 586 billion euros.

In addition, for China - which has its own problem with separatism, in particular as you know it relates to the issues of ethnic Uighur separatism in Taiwan, as well as Tobet, to some extent in Hong Kong and the eastern provinces of China, it is unacceptable and will be occupied by Russia and Crimea. The so-called republics. Recognition of independence and creation of new foci and precedents of separatism.

The third issue is related to the fact that investments in various sectors of the Chinese economy (with a total volume of $ 173 billion in 2021) are primarily made by American and European companies.

It is also important to take into account the fact that one of the most important projects in present-day China is the "One Belt One Way" proposed by President Xi Jinping in 2013, whose main goal is to bypass Russia, trade and economic relations between Europe and Asia within the old "Silk Road". Is the development of cooperation. In this regard, Sino-European relations are crucial, which could contribute to the establishment of an additional stable peace zone/zones between the West and the East.

In addition, due to the anticipation of sanctions, after the war in Krajina, some Chinese companies have already refused to import Russian oil. The factor of sanctions against Russia will most likely be taken into account by companies operating in various sectors of the Chinese economy.

For its part, in order to prevent any kind of cooperation between Russia and China, the West must maximize its relations with China and pursue a policy of "soft power." For example, official Washington should resume talks with Beijing on reducing or abolishing tariffs on various types of Chinese products imported into the US;

The EU should facilitate the implementation of the One Belt-One Road (Chinese project) and TRACECA (Europe-Asia Transport Corridor - EU project) projects as soon as possible and the further development of East-West relations;

According to various data, the estimated volume of shale gas in China exceeds 300 trillion cubic meters. Western energy companies should offer China to invest in maximizing shale gas extraction in the country. In this case, China will no longer be motivated to import Russian natural gas within the framework of the "Siberian Power" gas pipeline;

The West must reaffirm its respect for China's sovereignty and territorial integrity.