Global Warming gradually becomes one of the most dangerous problems of our Planet
By: Nika Chitadze
Professor of the International Black Sea University.
Director of the Center
for International Studies
It is not the first generation of humanity that has lived
with a constant and obsessive fear of environmental disasters. Deforestation,
ocean pollution, ozone layer depletion - people have heard these phrases
hundreds, if not thousands of times in their lives. But where is the real
threat, and where is sheer speculation. Let's figure out what environmental
problems pose a threat to people and their descendants.
Man interacted and influenced his environment from the
first moment of his appearance. However, this influence reached a truly
tangible scale only in the eighteenth century, with the beginning of the
industrial revolution. At this moment, a person left the natural circulation of
living nature and began to dictate his own rules to the planet.
The planet began to change, but the international
community noticed it not at once - our civilization was occupied with other
things: the extraction of fuel (coal, gas, shale, oil), metal, and other
minerals. All these substances, excreted naturally by nature and extracted by
man, returned to the environment, but in a different form. This turned into
global pollution of soil, water, and air and caused an environmental crisis.
And the intensity of this process continues to grow at a catastrophic pace, and
mankind will have to eliminate the serious consequences of the ecological
crisis shortly.
The difficult political background of the twentieth
century (the split of the world community and world wars) did not help mankind
to focus on environmental problems. Add to this the arms race (Cold War),
social inequality within countries, and the incredible speed of technological
progress. All these factors led to the fact that at the end of the twentieth
century, mankind had to settle down, look around and realize what harm it did
to its home.
It is, in fact, an aside process of the existence of a
huge human population.
One of the most important environmental problems for the
international society represents Global warming. Global warming is a long-term
increase in the average temperature of the Earth's climate system that has been
occurring for more than a century, the main cause of which is human activity
(anthropogenic factor).
Since 1850, on a
ten-year scale, the air temperature in each decade has been higher than in any
previous decade. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC’s)
Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), published in 2021, pointed out
that the best estimate of the increase in global average surface temperature
between 1850 and 2019 was 1.07 °C (1.9 °F) (The Conversation, 2021). Furthermore, IPCC also makes a
prognosis, that Earth will reach a temperature rise of about 1.5℃ in around a decade (The Conversation, 2021).
The impacts of global warming include rising sea levels,
regional changes in precipitation, more frequent extreme weather events such as
heatwaves, and expanding deserts. As stated by UN specialists, there is
worrying evidence that the exceeding of thresholds leading to irreversible
changes in the ecosystems and the climate system of our planet has already
occurred.
The causes of global warming have not yet been
established with absolute certainty. Nevertheless, most scientists are inclined
to believe that the main culprit for the rise in temperature on Earth is
humans. If earlier an increase in the average annual air temperature by tenths
of a degree occurred throughout millennia, then with the beginning of the
vigorous human activity, a couple of decades are enough for this. This process
is called global warming, and its consequences can be catastrophic. The threat
of global warming cannot be underestimated.
An increase in the temperature of the surface layer of
the atmosphere leads to a shift in climatic zones, causing melting of the
Arctic and Antarctic ice, as well as permafrost, which leads to an increase in
the level of the World Ocean.
Climate change is also affecting the animal kingdom. Many
species are dying out, others are changing their traditional habitats. The
danger of the process of resettlement of the inhabitants of the tropics to
temperate latitudes is that tropical animals are carriers of diseases such as
malaria. In addition, warming can lead to an increase in the incidence of
intestinal infections, asthma, allergies, and respiratory diseases.
Climate change will
have a detrimental effect on such sectors of the economy as agriculture and
tourism and will worsen living conditions in many countries. Based on the
prognosis of the Ozone Program, by the middle of this century, the number of "climate" refugees will reach 200 million people (Ozone Program, 2021).
So, lets the bring
some statistical dates more deeply analyze the possible consequences of Global
warming taking into account, that the impact of global warming on the
environment is broad and far-reaching. It includes the following various
effects:
• Melting Arctic ice,
rising sea levels, retreating glaciers: global warming concerns the level of
decline and thinning of arctic sea ice. It is always in a dangerous position
and vulnerable to atmospheric anomalies. Forecasts of Arctic sea ice reduction
are approaching each other. Recent forecasts have shown that the Arctic could
be ice-free (defined as less than 1 million km² of ice) during the summer as
early as 2025-2030. The sea-level rise since 1993 is estimated to average
between 2.6 mm and 2.9 mm per year ± 0.4 mm. In addition, sea-level rise
accelerated between 1995 and 2015. The IPCC High Rise Scenario suggests that sea levels could
average 52–98 cm during the 21st century (IPCC, 2013).
• Natural disasters:
Rising global temperatures will lead to changes in the amount and distribution
of precipitation. The atmosphere becomes wetter, more rain falls in high and
low latitudes, and less in tropical and subtropical regions. As a result, floods,
droughts, hurricanes, and other extreme weather events may become more
frequent. Warming should, in all likelihood, increase the frequency and
magnitude of such events. According to some researchers, an increase in
seawater temperature can lead to an increase in the energy of hurricanes,
according to others, “empirical data do not indicate an increase in the
frequency of formation of more powerful cyclones”.
• Heatwaves and other
quasi-stationary weather events: According to environmental specialists, James
Hansen, Makiko Sato, and Reto Ruedy, The frequency of
extremely hot weather events have increased by about 50 times compared to the
decades before 1980 (Hansen,
2012). Forty years ago, extreme summer heat typically affected 0.1 to
0.2% of the world's surface, today about 10%, and further growth is
predicted;
• Decrease in days of
"favorable" weather: researchers define its boundaries with a temperature of
18 °C - 30 °C, precipitation of no more than 1 mm per day and low humidity,
with a dew point below 20 °C. On average, “favorable weather” lasts 74 days a
year on Earth, due to global warming there will be a decrease in this indicator (Springer, 2017).
• Ocean
acidification, ocean deoxygenation: Increasing the concentration of carbon
dioxide in the atmosphere has led to an increase in dissolved CO2 in seawater
and hence an increase in ocean acidity as measured by lower pH values. Ocean
acidification threatens coral reefs, fisheries, protected species, and other
natural resources of value to society;
• Long-term effects
of global warming: within centuries and millennia, the scale of global warming
will be determined primarily by anthropogenic CO2 emissions. This is due to the
very long lifetime of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Long-term effects also
include a reaction in the Earth's crust caused by ice melt and subsequent
deglaciation in a process, in which land masses are no longer under the
pressure of an ice mass. This can lead to landslides and increased seismic and
volcanic activity. Caused by warming ocean waters, melting permafrost on the
ocean floor, or the release of gas hydrates, underwater landslides can cause
tsunamis.
• Abrupt climate
change can occur suddenly and be irreversible. Examples of abrupt climate
change are the rapid release of methane and carbon dioxide from permafrost,
leading to increased global warming.
Policies to combat
global warming include its mitigation by reducing greenhouse gas emissions, as
well as adaptation to its impact. In the future, according to experts'
opinions, geoengineering will become possible. The vast majority of countries
in the world participate in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UN, 1992). They
agreed on the need for deep reductions in emissions to limit global warming to
2.0°C.
References:
Hansen,
James. Satoa, Makiko. Ruedyb, Reto. 2012. Perception of climate change.
Retrieved from: Retrieved from: https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/109/37/E2415.full.pdf
IPCC,
2013. WORKING GROUP I CONTRIBUTION TO THE IPCC FIFTH ASSESSMENT REPORT CLIMATE
CHANGE 2013: THE PHYSICAL SCIENCE BASIS Final Draft Underlying
Scientific-Technical Assessment. Retrieved from: http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/uploads/WGIAR5_WGI-12Doc2b_FinalDraft_Chapter13.pdf
Ozone Program, 2020. Causes and
effects of global warming.
Retrieved from: https://www.ozoneprogram.ru/biblioteka/slovar/globalnoe_poteplenie/posledstvija_globalnogo_poteplenija/
The
Conversation, 2021. IPCC says Earth will reach a temperature rise of about 1.5℃
in around a decade. But limiting any global warming is what matters most.
Retrieved from: https://theconversation.com/ipcc-says-earth-will-reach-temperature-rise-of-about-1-5-in-around-a-decade-but-limiting-any-global-warming-is-what-matters-most-165397
United
Nations Treaty Collection. 1992. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change. Retrieved from: https://treaties.un.org/pages/ViewDetailsIII.aspx?src=TREATY&mtdsg_no=XXVII-7&chapter=27&Temp=mtdsg3&clang=_en
Van der Wiel, Karin. Kapnick, Sarah, Vecchi, Gabriel. 2017.
Shifting patterns of mild weather in response to projected radiative forcing. Springer. Retrieved
from: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-016-1885-9
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