A failed military coup in Russia. What happened?

The Protest Actions in Armenia – Domestic and Foreign Policy Priorities of the Country

Research was implemented within the Center for Intentional Studies

Introduction

The development of situation in Armenia have attracted the attention of the international community. Thousands of protesters in the center of Yerevan demanded the resignation of newly-appointed Prime Minister Serzh Sarkisyan.  The Prime Minister of the country satisfied the demand of the Protestants and resigned. Demonstrations continue with the demand of premature parliamentary elections.

Political and Economic Reasons that  Started the Demonstrations in Armenia

The launch of mass demonstrations had several reasons:

First and important is the political issue. From the restoration of the independence of Armenia in 1991, country had semi-presidential governance and president was elected directly by population.

The Armenian community has repeatedly proved that they will not adapt  with the any usurpation of power by a particular person. Because of public pressure, government of country has been changed several times.

In 1998, the former president of Armenia Levon Ter-Petrosian declared that in exchange for the construction of oil pipelines from Azerbaijan to Turkey through the territory of Armenia, official Erevan had to start negotiations with the Azerbaijan side about possible return of the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. Because of this statement, which contradicted with the interest of the majority of Armenian society, Ter-Petrosian was forced to leave the post in favor of Robert Kocharyan. From this period, in Armenia the power was gained by the "Karabakh clan”. After two terms of presidency, Kocharyan left the post.

Under the Kocharyan Presidency, Serzh Sarkisyan was Minister of Defense and later Prime-Minister of Armenia. Significant part of the population was against  his Presidency. After the Presidential elections in 2009, based on the report of the central electoral commission,  Sarkisyan was declared as a winner. Part of the population considered, that the elections were manipulated which resulted to mass demonstrations. Authorities used  force against the peaceful demonstrates. 

Also, we should mention about constitutional amendments which were  made by Serzh Sarkisyan and ruling Republican Party during the Sarkisyan`s last term of presidency. The public discontent caused the fact that, as a result of the amendments made in the constitution, the population could no longer elect the president directly. Armenia moved to the parliamentary type of governance, but the political regime has not been changed in favor of democracy and the ruling elites remained the same. Despite the fact, that the parliament elected the new president - Armen Sarkisyan, who was a representative of the Republican Party and had no an alternative. Before he was the prime-minister, and later Ambassador of Armenia in the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland. Armen Sarkisyan’s candidacy was supported by 90 members of Parliament and he replaced Serzh Sarkisian. 
Demonstrators' dissatisfaction was caused by the fact, that after constitutional changes, Serzh Sarkisyan decided to hold the post of prime minister. This was perceived as the use of constitution in favor of one person and not country, when concrete politician wanted to abuse the power. Furthermore, the downfall of his authority was the scandal connected with his brother, when under the circumstances, that the population of Armenia is in economic crisis, his brother has lost tens of thousands of dollars in the casino.

The decreasing the Serge Sarkisian's rating  was also determined by the recent events in "Nagorno Karabakh". In April 2016, Azerbaijan and Armenia renewed military confrontation. Azerbaijan managed to establish control over several settlements, which was perceived in the Armenian society as conceding positions and weaknesses of the government.

Serzh Sarkisian is a member of the "Karabakh clan" and it is an unpleasant factor for the part of the population, because he was protecting his "clan" representatives, consequently this reflected negatively on the development of democratic institutions in the country and was promoting the corruption.

The second and most important factor of protest actions was economic weakness. Armenia is geographically isolated state (from Turkey and Azerbaijan).  This fact hindered Armenia's rapid economic development.  In 2006, Armenia's GDP grew up to 14%, but in 2009 because of global economic crisis  GDP decreased by 16%.

In the post-Soviet space, according to GDP per capita ($3,880), Armenia is far behind from most of post-soviet republics. Half of the population of Armenia left the country, they were forced to migrate to neighboring states and in Europe. During 10 years of Serzh Sarkisyan presidency he could not manage the country's social-economic development.

Possible  scenarios  of  the  situation development and foreign-policy orientation of Armenia.

According to today's data, after Serge Sarkisian's resignation and after the fact that Arman Sarkisyan dismissed the government, Republican Party still remains the ruling force. The main demand of the opposition and their leader, Nikol Pashinyan is the appointment of early parliamentary elections.

It is interesting how events can occur after the possible changes.

Georgia-Armenia. With regard to the relations between Armenia and Georgia, under any government, two countries will maintain good neighborhood  relations. Especially noting the fact, that Armenia carries 70% of its foreign trade operations through the territory of Georgia. On the one hand, Armenia is interested in establishing good neighborly relations with Georgia in order not to be fully isolated, and on the other hand Georgia is interested in integrating Javakheti Armenians into Georgian society and to maintain Armenian support in avoiding provoking additional separatism.

Armenia-Turkey. Despite the fact, that the power of the liberal party in Armenia increases,  public demands had not changed.  That’s why we can say that, between Armenia and Turkey can not be a good neighborly relationship until Turkey does not recognize the genocide (According Armenian position) of Armenians of 1915.

Armenia-Azerbaijan. Pointing about “Karabakh” conflict, the majority of the Armenian population believes that the de-facto control by Armenia should be maintained on this territory, although there may be some progress on 7 regions around the Karabakh.

Armenia-Russia. The radical shift of Yerevan's foreign policy course is excluded. Leadership of the Liberal Party may lead to the improvement of internal structures of the country, fighting against corruption, but in the direction of foreign policy, Armenia will be forced to follow Russian interests.

The main guarantor for the maintaining control over the Nagorno - Karabakh Region for Armenia is Russia. If Armenia leaves the Eurasian Union, the Kremlin may support Azerbaijan in the “Nagorno-Karabakh” conflict. Moreover, we must take into account the fact that in 2014-2016, Russia consigned the military equipment  for over 2 billion dollars to Azerbaijan, which allowed the Official Baku to renew the conflict in "Nagorno Karabakh" and      establish  control over           several    settlements.

It is known that Russia has a legal obligation to protect Armenia, as both countries are members of CSTO – politico-military block – Collective Security Treaty Organization, also, Russian military base is  located on the territory of Armenia. According to agreement within CSTO, Russia (and other member states) has the military obligation before Armenia only if the third state invades on the territory of Armenia, but in case of "disobedience" from of Armenian side toward Kremlin, Russia can declare that the military operations between Armenia and Azerbaijan (if they are renewed) are taking place  in "Nagorno Karabakh", thus on the territory, which by Russia is recognized as a territory of Azerbaijan at that time the Russia will remove its legal responsibility.

If we will look through the history, in 1990-1991, the Soviet government raised the idea of ​​signing a new “union treaty”, according to which the rights of the Soviet Republics under the conditions of the keeping the territorial integrity of USSR had to be increased. At that time Armenia (ruled by national government), along with Georgia, Moldova and the three Baltic Republics were  demanding full independence, but in Azerbaijan, head of the republic was the pro-Russian leader, who favored the idea of ​​the union, and in return, Moscow had to support and arm Azerbaijan. At that time Azerbaijan controlled the largest part of “Nagorno Karabakh”. Since 1992, when Armenia joined CIS (Commonwealth of Independent States) and Azerbaijan’s new national leader Abulphak Echilbaye and Parliament were abstaining to ratify agreement about joining the CIS, Russia started active military support of  Armenia and promoted the strengthening            the       Armenian        position            in         "Nagorno         Karabakh".

It should be noted that nowadays Russia is providing good neighborly relations with Azerbaijan, Moscow intends to import natural gas and oil of Azerbaijan with the purpose of preventing the implementation energy projects with participation of Georgia, Turkey and European states (for example TANAP and TAP projects).

Conclusion

During the discussion about Foreign-Policy priorities of Armenia, it should be mentioned, that despite the fact, the country tries to maintain the stable relations with the west, for example, Armenia is still a member of the EU “Eastern Partnership” Program, also member of NATO`s Program “Partnership for Peace”, furthermore, it is necessary to point out, that several years ago USA has implemented the “Millennium Challenge” (“Millennium Development Goals”) program in Armenia, in the framework of which, Armenia gained from Washington about 220 million USD for the implementation of the infrastructure programs.

However, it should be pointed out, the huge dependence of Armenia to Russia, thus, despite the fact, that the former Prime-Minister of Great Britain Viscount Palmerstone once declared, that “We have no eternal allies, and we have not perpetual enemies. Our interests are eternal and perpetual,            and      those    interests            it is our duty to follow,” 
we should not expect any radical changes in the foreign policy of Armenia, but some changes could take place, which is approved by the leader of protest movement  and candidate for Prime-Minister of the Country Nikol Pashinyan, according to whom: “The protest movement had no foreign policy requirements. There is no foreign policy or geopolitical context, or any geopolitical conspiracy. There are no threats for the Russia-Armenia relations but, it does not mean, that there are no questions, which should not be considered.” 

Authors, researchers of the Center for International Studies:

Ketevan Jebisashvili

Nika Chitadze

Paul Dumebi Nkem

George Davidian