The massive attack of the Ukrainians on the Russian oil industry and the unprecedented activation of Europe

The massive attack of the Ukrainians on the Russian oil industry and the unprecedented activation of Europe

Nika Chitadze

Professor of the International Black Sea University

Director of the Center for International Studies 

 

Ukraine has a new strategy - purposefully attacking Russian oil refineries to create fuel shortages. Ukraine carried out drone attacks on several oil facilities, including the oil refinery in the Ryazan region, which is one of the major suppliers of the Moscow region. This is a significant blow to the logistics of the Russians, as it makes it difficult to supply the front with fuel. Russians need an average of 18,000 tons of fuel per day, and Russia will be forced to transport fuel from further distances, which increases the time, distance, and costs of delivery, and at the same time increases their vulnerability. At the same time, the Legion "Freedom of Russia" fighting on the side of Ukraine achieves success during various military operations on the territory of Russia. They made a statement about occupying several settlements. Besides, according to their statement, Chechen volunteers also participated in this operation. In addition, the "Russian Volunteer Corps" announced that its fighters captured Russian soldiers and offered a meeting with the governor of Belgorod to hand them over. Volunteers call on the Russians to get out of the populated areas, because the Russian military might use the civilian population as human shields.

It is worth noting that by transferring combat operations to the territory of Russia, Ukraine is given the opportunity for the Russians to extend their defense line and send troops from existing hotspots to these territories as well. As for the hot spots on the territory of Ukraine, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson remain such. Ukrainians try to attack there, but the situation hardly changes.

At the same time, Europe is becoming more active in containing Russia. French President Emmanuel Macron stands out for his particularly sharp statements, who, after announcing the possible deployment of troops to the territory of Ukraine, does not rule out an armed confrontation between France and Russia.

At the same time, it should be noted that the situation in other parts of the front is almost frozen, although combat operations are still ongoing.

It is important to note that the strikes have already caused economic panic in Russian society. And this economic panic can completely disrupt the energy systems and cause a serious crash and crisis. For the first time, Russia had to impose restrictions on the sale of its oil, including to Georgia, because of a certain shortage. If Ukraine continues this strategy, it may create an additional crisis for Russia.

Today, French President Emmanuel Macron does not rule out a clash with the Russian army. In an interview with "La Parisienne," he said that he would not be the initiator of this, but he would take countermeasures and at some point, this time may come. Before that, he also did not rule out the presence of Western troops in Ukraine. "Perhaps at some point - I don't want it, I don't take the initiative - it will be necessary to conduct ground operations, whatever they may be, to confront the Russian forces. The strength of France is that we can do it... it is our responsibility to prepare for all scenarios. If we didn't, it would be a mistake," said Macron, who also noted that France knows no bounds in supporting Ukraine to return sustainable peace to Europe.

It can be assumed that Macron's statement is a hint to Russia not to increase its attack on Ukraine and that the West is on Ukraine's side. Activation of Europe means that, on the one hand, European countries are also threatened; On the other hand, after winning the elections, Putin's ambitions and degree of aggression may increase, and Europe is already trying to prevent this.

These elections are the most illegitimate in Russia. Putin also realizes that he lost even under his regime, even the pensioners went against him, but in all options, he still signed a victory, and perhaps this will further increase the dictator's ambitions and his boldness. This is exactly the reason for the activation of Europe. Putin mentioned the nuclear triad at least 20-25 times in his interview, which is already very dangerous for the international community. Of course, if Putin succeeds in Ukraine, then he will approach Europe, and Macron is talking about this too - that if we do not stand by Ukraine, Europe will have to confront him at some point. Macron is well aware of the danger Europe is facing at this stage.