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Black Sea Security and Geopolitics in 21st Century: From Theory into Practice - A “New Cold War” Scenario

 

Black Sea Security and Geopolitics in 21st Century: From Theory into Practice - A “New Cold War” Scenario

 

Dr. Vakhtang Maisaia

Professor, Deputy Director of the Center for International Studies

 

Abstract: The Black Sea region is increasingly becoming a priority on the international agenda. In fact, a regional approach is emerging as actors understand that common problems need to be addressed jointly. Nevertheless, cooperation efforts are hampered by a number of factors, such as uneven economic and political development within and among countries, nationalist forces, and longstanding animosities between regional players. In this context, it is imperative to foster sound policies aimed at strengthening dialogue and cooperation so as to contain and ultimately resolve conflicts with peaceful means. However, there is little policy-oriented research on the challenges and opportunities for cooperation in the Black Sea region. The purpose of this paper is to assess the impact of terrorism and its dangers towards the Black Sea region. The work also describes the significance of international terrorism and its general definitions. Besides, the result and findings are based on theoretical studies and assumptions and the result of the analysis of the "Case Study" of the Black Sea region. Case study examines how the Black Sea region influences the spread of terrorism and what threats it poses for this region. Furthermore, the aspects of what makes the region important on international arena are analyzed and the existent and potential security issues are examined, as well as strategic importance of the region for the EU and NATO is analyzed even from academic framework – “Securitization” theory[1]. The theory is based on security studies conceptual background and the background spectrum includes: the Copenhagen School and Critical security studies as the type[2]. Moreover, the Black Sea regional security and geopolitics are to be reviewed and scrutinized in several modalities in aegis of the Securitization theory, like military and economic sectors. In addition to that the Black Sea Region has to contend with numerous threats of a conventional and non-conventional kind. These hard and soft security problems make the region volatile, insecure and unstable. That is why the region is very vital for inter-governmental organizations, dealing with military security (NATO case) and local actors in case of Georgia’s national security.

Key words: Black Sea region, Copenhagen School, Critical security studies, Securitization, NATO, EU, Georgia’s national security

 

 

Introduction

 

The Black Sea Region is one of the main factors in the make-up of security and stability in Europe and Asia. In addition to the numerous other issues in the region, ethnic conflicts, ongoing state-building processes, the presence of vast natural resources, and strategic transport and energy corridors mean that the region is an extremely important and sensitive area.

In geographical terms it is difficult to specify the boundaries of the Black Sea Region, since there are numerous regional and sub-regional structures. In the post-Cold War period there has been a large measure of openness to several neighboring areas, such as the Mediterranean, the Balkans, and the Caspian region. This kind of openness makes it difficult to define both the nature of the region and its borders. It is reflected in terms such as “Black-Caspian Seas Region” and “Black-Mediterranean Seas Region”. Some analysts have even argued that the Black Sea Region is simply an intellectual invention. In order to avoid confusion, this policy report is based on the definition adopted by the Organization of the Black Sea Economic Cooperation (BSEC). The Black Sea Region is one of the main factors in the make-up of security and stability in Europe and Asia. In addition to the numerous other issues in the region, ethnic conflicts, ongoing state-building processes, the presence of vast natural resources, and strategic transport and energy corridors mean that the region is an extremely important and sensitive area.

In geographical terms it is difficult to specify the boundaries of the Black Sea Region, since there are numerous regional and sub-regional structures. In the post-Cold War period there has been a large measure of openness to several neighboring areas, such as the Mediterranean, the Balkans, and the Caspian region. This kind of openness makes it difficult to define both the nature of the region and its borders. It is reflected in terms such as “Black-Caspian Seas Region” and “Black-Mediterranean Seas Region”. Some analysts have even argued that the Black Sea Region is simply an intellectual invention. In order to avoid confusion, this policy report is based on the definition adopted by the Organization of the Black Sea Economic Cooperation (BSEC).

At the end of the Cold War, the states around the Black Sea regained their freedom and escaped from a bipolar conceptual straitjacket. This historical event not only marked the start of a move towards independence, democracy and market economy, but also unleashed hitherto suppressed ethnic, national and territorial conflicts, and even terrorism. From the early 1990s onwards the region witnessed armed conflicts and an increase in political tension. Political and territorial disagreements such as border disputes and clashes between both peoples and states are the main reason why the prospects for regional security cooperation are rather bleak. The Black Sea basin was of secondary importance for the Euro-Atlantic community during the 1990s as it focused on stabilizing and integrating central and eastern European countries from the Baltic to the Black Sea. However, in the 21st century the changing global and regional balances created new political and security dilemmas for the Black Sea Region. The global and regional powers increasingly supported competing political and security agendas which, although they occasionally contradicted each other, were clearly interlinked.

After 11 September 2001 the US increased its involvement in the region, for example with new programs in Georgia and Ukraine. This went hand in hand with the European Union (EU) and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) enlargement processes and global political developments. The differing approaches to the creation of security and stability in the region led to tension and rivalry between the regional actors.

In the post-Cold War period, the Black Sea Region failed to develop a cooperative security vision or structure in which the regional actors would have been the principal stakeholders. The Russian-Georgian War in August 2008 showed quite clearly that the initiatives designed to pacify the region had not produced a security system capable of preventing or containing internal and interstate conflicts. One lesson that can be learned from the August 2008 crisis is that the interplay of regional and global forces will continue to dominate future political and military issues in the region. It remains to be seen whether the war in August 2008 will lead to a new cooperative security environment in the Black Sea Region. Finally, all kinds of security issues ranging from energy security to environmental degradation and from terrorism to illegal trafficking in arms, human beings and drugs continue to be unresolved as a result of international rivalry.

Another important issue is energy security. The need to achieve energy supply diversity on the one hand and the risks associated with energy dependency on Russia on the other show the importance of gas and oil from other sources being piped to the European markets through the region. The energy dispute between Russia and Ukraine in late 2008 and early 2009 clearly illustrated the importance of energy security for the region and the EU. In addition to exploration, production and transport-related problems, oil and natural gas have become one of the main security issues in the Black Sea Region, which as the principal energy transit route, is also a testing ground for the interaction between producer, consumer and transit countries. This means that the region is not only a potential hub. There are also numerous rivalries.

Finally, a number of problems associated with soft security issues which range from environmental concerns to the potential for social unrest and economic collapse need to be analyzed, especially if there is a likelihood that they will disrupt political stability and security in the region. Potential destabilizing threats such as the global financial crisis also need to be kept under review, as does the impact of the crisis on the countries in the region or on the redefinition of the roles of the regional powers, and the opportunities arising from a redefinition of the global economic environment.

By and large, the Black Sea region is also increasing of geoeconomic importance especially with regard to developing energy security provisions in aegis of the European Union via the import and providing transit opportunities from the Caspian Basin, Middle East and Central Asia and becoming somekind of energy gateway that is so important for providing and fostering security and stability implications in the Pan-European Area. It is interesting to underpin that energy security in Wider Black Sea region is defined by the concrete scientific and academic analytical school approaches reflected in international relations, like interdependence theory[3].  

 

 

 

Geopolitical Classification of the Black Sea Region – Wider Black Sea Implication for the World Politics

 

In above mentioned passage was depicted geographical implications for the Black Sea region but due to the geopolitical transmission and transformation after bipolar system demolition in contemporary international relations the regional security is being increased steadily. There are several indications why the region has become so important and unique not only in Cold War period but mostly afterwards. Here is to mention first of all very unique geopolitical implication of the region. The region is applicable with primary accessibility to “Three Oceans” line (Nord, Atlantic and Indian Oceans – see Map#1) via gateways Black Sea Basin, Persian Gulf and Central Eurasia. Moreover, concrete geopolitical determinants of importance of the region is considered with three main criteria having pure geopolitical meaning.   

 

Map#1: The Black Sea Region applicability toward “Three Oceans” line

 

These unique geopolitical indications are sought to be as following:

1)      Combination of three concepts: Talasokratia+Telurokratia+Montekratia

2)      “Eurasian Balkan” acronym for spurring new asymmetric challenges

3)      Key international energy gateway providing unlimited delivery of energy resources to international markets

Nevertheless the geopolitical implication is only so-called “macro” level of analysis and is fitted to Pan-regional classification and global political relevance of the region. In order to provide so-called “micro” level of analysis and importance of the region in aegis of the regional and local implications there are some approaches to make classification of the Black Sea region. The classification is based on classical geopolitical identification similar that of British geopolitical school founder Professor Helford Mackinder’s “Heartland Theory”. According to his theory Mackinder defined the global geopolitical system into three main territorial areas: “Pivot Area” (or another way “Heartland”), “Inner or Marginal Crescent” and “Lands of the Outer or Insular Crescent”[4]. Even Mackinder endorsed simplistic dictum upon based on which he identified then world order:

“Who rules East Europe commands the Heartland:

Who rules the Heartland commands the World-Island:

Who rules the World-Island commands the World[5]”.

In this respect, based on the classical geopolitical methodology is possible to define geopolitical identification of the Black Sea region. Having considered the above-mentioned passage is necessary to figure out the following possible configuration. The configuration is clearly identified regional geopolitical architecture in three concrete circles, similar of British classical geopolitical school approach:

Black Sea Basin – “Inner Core” Ring – namely six littoral states of the Black Sea itself (Bulgaria, Turkey, Ukraine, Georgia, Russian Federation);

Black Sea Region – Outer Core Ring” – the land and seascape from the Balkans to the Caucasus and fro Ukrainian and Russian steppe to Anatolia;

Wider Black Sea Region (Area) – “Close Outer” Ring – the territory encompasses the following geopolitical spaces MENA, Caspian Basin, South and Eastern Europe.

Considering the geopolitical classification is important to clarify the dispositional characteristics of the regional “circles”. The scheme means demonstrating true geopolitical content each of the “circles” – for instance, Black Sea Basin associated with “Talassokratia[6]” geopolitics, Black Sea Region - associated with “Montecracy[7]” geopolitics and Wider Black Sea Area (Region) – associated with “Telurokratia[8]” geopolitics. Roughly this is geopolitical modality of the Black Sea region and follow up the British geopolitical school founder Mackinder’s dictum is very possible to create the same version for the regional dimension and if the dictum exists, the one is to be as follow:

Who rules Black Sea Basin commands the Eurasia (Post-Soviet Space):

Who rules Black Sea Region commands the Pan-Europe:

Who rules Wider Black Sea Region commands the World Politics”.

This interesting approach is really containing historical provisions detrimental influenced the regional geopolitics. The most important and critical challenge is the fact that there are a large number of actors and clashing interests within the Black Sea Region. In security terms the region suffers from several historical legacies. The Black Sea Region used to be treated as a ‘passive area’ and analyzed as the periphery of more significant geographical units. Thus the Black Sea basin has been variously described as the backyard of the Ottoman and Russian Empires, as an extension of Soviet zone of influence, as the frontier of Europe, and, finally, as the extension of the Mediterranean world. Moreover, the existence of several distinct sub-regions within the Black Sea Region, i.e. the Caucasus, the Balkans and to a certain extent the Mediterranean, Eastern Europe and the Middle East, is another factor that destabilizes the area. Time and again sub-regional identities have prevented the emergence of a Black Sea identity, created instability, and impeded the establishment of a comprehensive regional security framework. There are both regional and non-regional actors in the Black Sea Region, and three principal actors exert varying degrees of influence on the available security policy options (reflection of the passage is below). At present time, The Black Sea region is becoming very important one to world markets because it has large oil and gas reserves that are only now bargaining to be fully developed (taking in consideration of energy resources of Azerbaijan, the Ukraine, Romania, Russia, transit potency of Georgia, Bulgaria, Turkey and very closed disposition toward the Caspian Basin). Developing these resources has resulted in competition both between companies to get the contracts to develop this potential, and between nations to determine the final export routes. According to experts of the RAND Corporation the Caspian oil potential today is 2% of the world's total (Venezuela has one-fourth of such reserves; Iraq, one-seventh; and Saudi Arabia, one-seventeenth). Therefore, the Caspian Sea region's oil and gas potential and the Black Sea region's transition ability have attracted much attention since the breakup of the Soviet Union. Due to the unique geopolitical location, the Black Sea region interlines four very important areas: the Middle East, the Central Europe, the Central Asia and Western Europe thus more raising political status of the region for the international society. The nations in the Black Sea region and nearby "gateways" (term used by the American scientist Saul B. Cohen[9] and in this context means geographical one for key passages of the Black Sea for shipping of oil and gas)-the Caucasus - Azerbaijan, Georgia, Ukraine, Turkey, Romania, Russia, Bulgaria are already major energy producers and exporters, and production will increase with additional investment, technology, and the development of new export outlets. The Caspian Sea is 700 miles long and contains 6 separate hydrocarbon basins. However, the Caspian Sea strategic reserves importance is difficult to consider by exclusion of the South-East Europe and the South Caucasus regions. The South Caucasus' strategic importance cannot be overestimated: it is a link between the North and the South (Russia and the Persian Gulf), it is a source of oil and gas for the European and Pacific markets[10]. Besides one should perceive the regional geopolitical perspective. The Caucasus has an important geopolitical role to play as a link between the North and the South (Central Eurasia, which is Russia, and the Middle East) and the West and the East (Western Europe-the Balkans-the Caucasus-Central Asia-Southeast Asia-the Far East). The true mechanism of managing the "resources" distribution requires stable and cohesive political stability and basement. It drives all nations to engage into a new relationship mechanism and by joint effort to build democracy, free-minded society and rigid statehood. Otherwise to say the broader Black Sea-Caspian-Central Asian dimension, bringing in all countries of the Black Sea and Caspian Sea, would be based on the existing mechanism of the Organization for the Black Sea Economic Cooperation (BSEC) of which the countries of the Caucasus and the South-East Europe are members. The BSEC organization itself would be upgraded in operationally, with full membership now appropriate for the EU in view of the status of Bulgaria, Romania and Turkey as accession candidates, and possible association links with the South Caucasus as well as their membership in the NATO. The institutionalization might be laying foundation for further development of the Black Sea reserves exploitation to benefit all participated nations and societies. This is a real chance for the regionalization success achievement and integrative negotiation ends.

 

 

Military Dimension of The Wider Black Sea Regional Security: NATO and Russia’s “New Cold War” Competition

 

Threat assessment criteria is being considered as the most prevalent academic instrument in reaching true realms of logics of international relations. In the 21st century threat identification has determined and transformed into concrete systematic modality. Having considering the “Copenhagen School” securitization concept where there are five ring of security provisions that are enlisted in the following way:

*      Political Security

*      Military Security

*      Economic Security

*      Society Security

*      Environment Security

Therefore with enumerating “five ring” provision in 20-21st century’s two academic sub-fields in international relations have been emerged. Namely, Strategic and Security studies as a whole, represented the most important contribution to the research of security issues in aegis of the political science. Even today, some authors consider them to be the only real research platform in the area of research of security[11]. In that manner is important of true classification of threat identification that could be clarified in manner of: threat-challenge-risk. However, the classification is still plausible and general and yet to have confirmed in academic and analytical methodology frame. Nevertheless, there are two types of the threat that is already identified but in general way – symmetric and asymmetric threats[12].

Namely, military security dimension is more applicable for analyzing situation and importance of the region in aegis of international politics. Treating the region from the military perspective is necessary introduce a jargon “Geostrategic Gateway - space or area vitally important from global security and military perspectives, like “southern limited flank” in aegis of the CFE Treaty of Istanbul OSCE Summit. Relatively the Black Sea regional security is referred as “Geostrategic Gateway” mainly due to contemporary “New Cold War” provision where a coercive competition between NATO and Russia for getting dominance over the Black Sea region.

Due to the strain relations between the West and Russia, from one standpoint an economic war between EU/USA and Russia via sanction policy level and a military confrontation between NATO and Russia via demonstration “military muscles” between competing forces. In that scope, mainly NATO-Russia military confrontation one of the dangerous “combat zone” is sought to be the Black Sea Basin and its littoral territories which is labeled as the “Black Sea Security Dimension”. The flawed geostrategic situation in the area is making possible to deteriorate geostrategic environment in the area further on and the indication derives from those actions taken by the Kremlin incumbent authority. As it is known, on July 27th 2015 a new naval doctrine was declared and later approved by the President of the Russian Federation. This document has identified new version or interpretation of the military doctrine that was approved by the National Security Council in December of 2015. The naval doctrine has identified strategic areas and basins, such as the Artic and the so-called “Atlantic” direction, which includes the Black Sea basin. The doctrine also undermines the role of the fleet (both military and civilian), the shipbuilding industry, harbours and rigging infrastructure as priorities for the further development of Russia’s naval economy. How is seen based on these documents, Russia is trying position itself as a great power with ability to increase its military capability on the Caspian-Black-Mediterranean Seas axis. The centre of this axis is the Black Sea, a basin from which NATO risks being excluded. The Russian policy-makers seek to regain its nation’s great power status-quo with domination in the basin with controlling three key points: Crimea, the mouths of the Danube and the Bosporus. Having considered the latest events, Russia has partially achieved the strategic goals – first occupied and then annexed the Crimea and reinforced military positions and capabilities in the peninsula, with creation of so-called “Mediterranean Task Force’ within the Black Sea Fleet and detachment of combat ships and boats for the Mediterranean Sea and the Gulf region, Russia pursued getting its control Bosporus (the Task Force was reinforced by the nuclear carried submarine “Rostov-on-Don”, which sailed from Novorosiisk to join the Force and equipped with newest strategic weaponry system “Kalibr” missiles). With this reinforcement naval forces, Russia is seeking to get under the control the third pillar – the mouth of Danube. However, in order to more reinforce its presence in the Black Sea basin, the Russian authority announced that 30 new ships are to be supplied to the Black Sea Fleet, including six new frigates, six new submarines and other smaller vessels for naval landing. In addition to that the Black Sea Fleet will be reinforced its anti-access strategy (A2/AD) against NATO forces. Moreover, according to the “Jamestown Foundation” – official Moscow decides to set up in the Crimea an “unapproachable fortress” and military key-spot. In the peninsula with only 2.2 million population, the Russian militaries received several SU-27SM and MIG-29 fighters, SU-25M ground attack aircraft, IL-38N maritime patrol and anti-submarine aircraft KA-52K attack helicopters and KA-27ASW helicopters. In addition, the Kremlin is sought to deploy at the Crimea its strategic military armaments, which enables to carry on nuclear warheads. A regiment of TU-22M3 strategic bombers, which can be used as platforms for different high-precision missiles, will be deployed at Gvardeyskoye airfield, 15 kilometers northwest of Simferopol. Having considered the fact that in the North Caucasus Military District now transformed into operational-strategic HQ “South” already deployed strategic bomber jets with nuclear devices and equipment TU-160 “Black Bear” and TU-95M in Engelsk airfield and in Rostov-na-Donu military airfield already arrived “4+1” generation modernize aircrafts SU-34 and SU-35 also capable to carry on nuclear tactical bombs and “air-to-land” cruise missiles with precision guide systems, as well as creation of two battery of strategic strike rocket complex “ISKANDER-M” targeting Georgia and Ukraine becomes clear that Russia have sufficient enough strike capabilities to operate properly at any operational directions. This is enough to demonstrate military “muscle-show” toward these yet uncontrolled nations. The Kremlin decision to launch unprecedented before massive military drills “KAVKAZ-2016” second phase in aegis of the sudden alert mission operational-tactical level with involvement of 11 thousand servicemen and with usage of strike military capabilities – S-300M air-defense complexes, SU-34 jets, tactical-operational rocket systems “ISKANDER-M”, etc. means that Russia seriously considers beginning of war campaign in the region at any directions. According to Warsaw based magazine: “New Eastern Europe”, together with the new naval infantry and Special Forces units, some of which have already been used as part of its hybrid war, Russia will own a significant strike force, which could help implement different military combat operations in the Black Sea basin. In 2016 the Russian Ministry Defense announced some interesting points on further reinforcement of the military capabilities in the area. As for example, Russian government would spend $2.4 billion by 2020 to provide its Black Sea Fleet with state-of-the-art ships, submarines, air defense systems and naval infantry. On similar way, the Caspian Fleet is being reinforced with new military ships and vessels equipped with sea-to-sea and sea-to-land cruise missiles “Kalibr” and “Bulava”, even covered the operational tactical zone in Syria and Iraq. Taking together all these factors, and precise attention to the regional security environment, if the Russian government completes its missions in that way how it prescribed in the naval doctrine, the Black Sea Fleet will have full control over the Black Sea by 2020. In that retrospective provision, the military balance at present time between the NATO and Russian forces decreased in proportion of 2:1 in favor to the NATO ones but in that reinforced conditions by 2020 the balance will be absolutely opposite in the same proportion but in Russia’s favour. In that configuration, Georgia is in dangerous positions due to its littoral space and its unfrozen sea ports that Russia needs very badly. Hence, Georgia is to be perceived new aggressive steps from the Russian authority after the Parliamentary elections, namely toward the ports directions. Hence, the Georgian government and society have to very attentive toward any provocations spurred from the Russian side.    

 

 

Conclusion

 

The Black Sea regional geopolitics is still actual and very relevant from theoretical framework of international relations and security studies and from realpolitik perspective. However, this achievement would be made fragile, as the Black Sea region has become one of the world's most tragic humanitarian, political and economic disaster zones. The region enters the 21-st century still drinking the deadly cocktail of 19th century nationalism and great power rivalry. The insecurity of the region also blocks the development of the wider Black Sea-Caspian-Central Asian economic axis. New dangerous challenges - terrorism and low intensity conflicts can subvert the Security System of the region. These might be considering as "external" but little aware political constraints that curb and grave all prosperous dreams of the nations. Hence, the regional system in the Black Sea area is very dual fold and prone toward instability but with opportunity for enhancing security provisions in nearest future.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

References:

 

1)      Buzan B., Waever O. and De Wilde J. “Security, A New Framework For Analysis”, Lynne Reinner Publishers, London, 1998

2)      Eka Beraia “The U.S. Foreign Policy Priorities in the Post-Cold War Period (1990-2016): Georgia’s Case from Transnational Challenges (Including Migration) towards Enhancing Institutional Transformation”, Ph.D. thesis at International Black Sea University (IBSU), American Studies Program, Tbilisi, Georgia, 21 September, 2017

3)      Iulian Chifu, Andriana Sauliuc, Bogdan Nedea “Energy Security Strategies in the Wider Black Sea Region”, Editura Curtea Veche, Bucharest, 2010

4)      David Minix, Samuel Hawley “Global Politics”, Wadsworth Publishing Company, New York, 1998

5)      Robert D. Kaplan “The Revenge of Geography”, Random House Trade Paperbacks, New York, 2013

6)      Gearoid O Tuathail “Critical Geopolitics: the Politics of Writing Global Space”, Routledge Publishing House, London, 1996

7)      Vakhtang Maisaia “The Caucasus-Caspian Regional and Energy Security Agendas – Past, Contemporary and Future Geopolitics: View from Georgia”, second edition, IREX, Brussels, 2007

 

 

 

 

                  

 



[1] Buzan B., Waever O. and De Wilde J. “Security, A New Framework For Analysis”, Lynne Reinner Publishers, London, 1998, pp.17-24

[2] Robert Ondrejcsak “Introduction to Security Studies”, Centre for European and North Atlantic Affairs (CENAA), Bratislava, 2014, p.25

[3] Iulian Chifu, Andriana Sauliuc, Bogdan Nedea “Energy Security Strategies in the Wider Black Sea Region”, Editura Curtea Veche, Bucharest, 2010, p.9

[4] Gearoid O Tuathail “Critical Geopolitics: the Politics of Writing Global Space”, Routledge Publishing House, London, 1996, p.33

[5] Robert D. Kaplan “The Revenge of Geography”, Random House Trade Paperbacks, New York, 2013, p.74

[6] Talassokratia – geopolitical means sea power domain in politics

[7] Montecracy - geopolitical jargon implies influence of mountainous geographic terrain on foreign political and military strategic decisions

[8] Telurokratia – geopolitical jargon means land power domain in politics

[9] David Minix, Samuel Hawley “Global Politics”, Wadsworth Publishing Company, New York, 1998, pp.50-51

[10] Vakhtang Maisaia “The Caucasus-Caspian Regional and Energy Security Agendas – Past, Contemporary and Future Geopolitics: View from Georgia”, second edition, IREX, Brussels, 2007, pp.15-17

[11] Robert Ondrejscak “Introduction to Security Studies”, Centre for European and North Atlantic Affairs (CENAA), Bratislava, 2014, pp.24-26

[12] Eka Beraia “The U.S. Foreign Policy Priorities in the Post-Cold War Period (1990-2016): Georgia’s Case from Transnational Challenges (Including Migration) towards Enhancing Institutional Transformation”, Ph.D. thesis at International Black Sea University (IBSU), American Studies Program, Tbilisi, Georgia, 21 September, 2017, pp.72-73

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