Azerbaijan-Russia Geoeconomic Links and Its Consequences
On March 5-6th 2024 suddenly Russia’s
Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin paid official visit to Azerbaijan where he met
with President of Azerbaijan Ilham Alliev and Prime Minister Ali Asadov. It is
interesting to note that negotiations between PM of Russia and President of
Azerbaijan lasted for 3 years and such a long dialogue was even beyond of
protocol and never fixed before between the parties. At the beginning of the
dialogues the PM of Russia congratulated to Ilham Aliev with blatant victory at
the Presidential race on 7 February 2024. According to some information, PM of
Russia Mishutsin delivered to Aliev personal letter from the President of
Russia Vladimir Putin. However, main topic of the three hours discussion were
the following:
·
Promotion and involvement
of Azerbaijan into the Russia’s new geoeconomic project “North-South” from
Sankt-Petersburg till Mumbai (India) and actively development the railway
transit road from Makhachkala till Askhara (Iran) with joint Azerbaijan-Russia investment
package. By the way, President Ilham Aliev has confirmed readiness to get
involved more fasten manner in realization the project and accepted the bid
that Russia and Azerbaijan has increased their trade turnover in $4.4. Billion
in 2023. Russia’s PM more insistently lending realization the “North-South”
geo-economics project with trade turnover in 30 mln. tones annually;
·
Assistance in holding
Russia’s presidential elections in Russia on 15-17 March, 2024 at the territory
of Azerbaijan and requested opening several elections where a lot of Russia’s
citizen arrived lately. About 200 000 ones;
·
Promotion of Russia’s
“soft power” for opening more Russian language schools, Russian culture centers
and humanitarian institutions (there are 300 Russian language schools in
Azerbaijan and more than 7 000 Azerbaijani students educated in Russia) and
making more close link between two countries and realization joint business
projects, like 1400 joint companies acting in Azerbaijan, where only 300 ones
with pure Russian 100% capital stocks. Moreover, Russian private investments in
the country consists of $295 million (Russia stands at fourth place in direct
foreign investment portfolio list after the UK, Turkey and Cyprus);
·
Informally Russia’s PM
Mikhail Mishustin requested for assistance Azerbaijan authority in avoiding the
Western economic sanctions and inquired about China’s involvement into national
as well as regional affairs.
During the two day official visit period of time,
the Russia’s PM was accompanied by Vice-Premier Minister Aleksay Overchuk,
Minister for Transportation Vitaly Savelev, Minister for Labour and Social
Affairs Anton Kotyakov, General Director of the Export State Center Veronika
Nikishina who is in charge promotion of the Russian version “North-South”
Transit Corridor Project (see below the
map). During the negotiations the following concrete agreements and
treaties were signed up and very soon are to be realized as follow:
v
Action Plan for 2024-26 period of time for development transit
spots capability at the border of the two states (increasing up to 3000 car
cargos turnover);
v
Inter-government Agreement on provision of exploitation and
service automobile bridge over river Samur and upgrading existing transit
check-point “Yarag-Kazmalyar”;
v
Road Map for promotion tourism between Azerbaijan and Russia
in 2024-26;
v
Program for increasing cooperation between Ministries of
Culture of both states.
As it is
seen above mentioned treaties arranged during the visit were linked with
realization of the “North-South” Transit Geoeconomic project where Azerbaijan
agreed to participate with President Alievs’ personal consent.
Separately from the visit, at one of the
international conferences hold in Russia, at the same time when the visit hold,
Vice-Prime Minister Khunsulin said the following (words directly cited): “We wants
via Caspian basin, via Azerbaijan and Iran
get entrance to Indian Ocean avoiding Suez Channel and Bosporus strait. This is our strategic
transport (i.e. geoeconomic) mission and task”. It seems that the
mission why Russia’s PM paid visit to Azerbaijan had more geoeconomic and
geopolitical missions and it is now clear why it occurred at the stage.
It also interesting that upon arrival from
Azerbaijan, the Prime-minister Mikhail Mishustin has signed up a decree on
opening Free Economic Zones in Mordovia, Rostov region and Tver region (by the
way, Rostov region just is one of the key gateway to realize the “North-South”
geoeconomic project).
Historically,
the South Caucasus has been playing a significant role for establishing and
developing the economic relations between Europe and Asia. After the trilateral
agreement amongst Azerbaijan, Armenia and Russia, which led to a complete
ceasefire and a cessation of all hostilities on November 10th of
2020, new geo-economic opportunities have been established in the South
Caucasus region. Thanks to the trilateral agreement, the normalization of the
relations between Turkey, Azerbaijan and Armenia and the potential for economic
cooperation has emerged in the region. Hence, developments throughout the past
two years show that there is a mutual interest in all South Caucasus countries
for further establishing and expanding the trade and economic cooperation
across border lines through establishing new opportunities. Therefore, it is
suggested to promote the regional socioeconomic reconciliation and cooperation
programs for the sustainable peace in the region. Additionally, Armenian
borders with Turkey have been closed since 1993 due to the conflict between
Armenia and Azerbaijan. However, in the post-conflict period there is also a
new solid opportunity for the recovery of Turkey-Armenia economic relations,
too. Having considered above mentioned geopolitical confrontation between the
actors of the Caucasus region and even confrontation lines among three regional
hegemons: Iran, Russia and Turkey and with attempt of outside regional actors,
like the USA and EU (mainly with France engagement and with weak involvement of
Germany – German Foreign Affairs Minister Annalena Baerbock just lately paid
official visit in Georgia and criticized the current Georgian government for
pursuing anti-Western foreign policy and that was only the mission) attempts to
have their influence in the region, the situation in the South Caucasus more
strain and would be deteriorated further on. In this case, several scenarios
could be perceived in nearest future, probably even in long term but even in
short term the geopolitical landscape in the region would be detrimental to
international security perspectives. Let’s consider the period of for 2 years
period and review the scenarios development cases:
The First
Scenario – Military Confrontation Development: recent processes taken
places in the South Caucasus mainly in conjunction with so-called “Zangezur
Corridor” (see in more detail below
Case-study) and Nagorno Karabakh problem where two peacekeeper missions
are available – the Russian Federation military contingent and the EU Military
Monitoring Mission operate. Regarding the “Zangezur Corridor” where Iran and
Azerbaijan and with together Armenia interests are being intertwisted. However,
Azerbaijan and Iran are at the edge of war wagging and in nearest future low
intensity military conflict could be developed. Iran allied with Armenia and
even can provide military assistance and even provoke a small scale military
intervention in order to provide its military interests in order to defender
“Zangezur Corridor” bordering between Azerbaijan and Iran. By the way, on April
9 of 2023 two high level officials of Iran and Armenia met in Tehran –
Secretary to National Security Council of Armenia, “grey cardinal” of the
Armenian politics Armen Grigorian and Secretary to Supreme Council of National
Security of Iran Islamic Republic Ali Shamkhani. By the way, namely Ali
Shamkhani noted that if geographical changes occurs in the region, it will be
linked with military conflict and he certainly deems Azerbaijan Armed Forces
attempts to seize “Zangezur Corridor” and even in Nagorno Karabakh so-called
“Lachin Corridor” connected the Nagorno Karabakh region with Armenia and now
being under controlled by the Russian peacekeepers. Iranian Special
Revolutionary Islamic Guard Corp military formations have been converted on
military readiness level#1 across the border with Azerbaijan. The situation
deterioration between Iran and Azerbaijan formally started when the Azerbaijan
opened its diplomatic mission – Embassy in Israel and launched strategic
partnership cooperation with the country. In conjunction with more
deterioration situation in the Middle East region between Israel and Iran
either in Syria, Lebanon or in Gaza sector and if Israel starts realize its
plan on Air Strategic Offense on Iran in order to suspend its nuclear project,
the situation would be strained in the South Caucasus. Hence, alliance conflict
could be inflamed with proper ones: Turkey-Azerbaijan-Pakistan vs.
Russia-Iran-Armenia. At time being, Turkey is refraining with engaging in
conflict scenario with Iran unless the Presidential elections are held on May
14, 2023. However, the regional security current modality: 3+3 (Armenia,
Georgia, Azerbaijan as local actors and regional hegemons – Russia, Iran and
Turkey) is the only one fragile stability fora but anyway the military
confrontation stage is very real to develop;
The Second Scenario – Geoeconomic War between Russia and USA in the region: the
scenario and confrontation between two global powers the USA and Russia is very
real one and linked with realization of proper geoeconomic projects – Russia
promoted “North-South Transit Corridor” from Sankt-Petersburg till Mumbai
(India) and the USA promoted also “North-South” Transit Road in case of “Three
Sea Concept” with domination in the Black Sea Region. Hence, the Russia-USA
geoeconomic war is very real one and could strain the geopolitical landscape in
the region. Both powers are confronting to get direct access to China
mega-geoeconomic project “One Belt, One Road” with around $1 trillion. The
confrontation line is being dwelled in realization so-called “Anaklia Sea Port”
project and the USA also launched its geopolitical game. On March 15, 2023 the
Senate adopted new “Black Sea Security Act” where the official Washington
declared as its privileged geopolitical zone the Black Sea Basin and submitted
the proper strategy how to realize the Act. Hence, the geoeconomic war between
Russia and the USA is actually de-facto underway already. The scenario is being
developed in real case and who wins the game situation determined.
The Third
Scenario – Geoeconomic War between Russia and China in the region: China’s interests
toward the region in aegis of the Trans-Caspian Transit Corridor (Middle
Transit Corridor) increased since sanction policy imposition on Russia by the
Western community that forged blocking the shortest Trans-Baikal Transit
Eurasian Corridor via Russian territories connected China to the EU zone as
well as blocking also Arctic Maritime Transit Network. Moreover, stiff
geopolitical and geostrategic instability in the Persian Gulf and Red Sea basin
and blocking the “One Belt, One Road” Maritime project transit capabilities,
forced the Chinese political leadership to exploit only remained de-facto real
sole Trans-Caspian Transit Corridor opportunities with construction in Anaklia
deep-seated port in Georgia and ship put by land network the cargos and goods
via the “Middle Transit Corridor”. The project clashes with the Russia’s own
geoeconomic project realization “North-South Transit Route” launching from
Sankt-Petersburg to Mumbai (India) where the South Caucasus is a linchpin in
realization of the Russia’s project. That is why Russia seeks to set up very
near to the Georgian Anaklia sea port, in Ochamchire occupied territory of
Abkhazia in Georgia a special naval base. It means that China and Russia will
start their own geoeconomic war for the domination at the South Caucasus region
that could be converted into geopolitical confrontation between the
actors.
Conclusion
Moreover,
in conjunction with traditional military threats, mentioned above, are coming
out on the scene so-called „non-traditional” military threats – international
terrorism, drug smuggling and drug cartels activation, aggressive separatism,
violent non-state actors, etc. Hence, degradation of the essence of collective
security provisions in the Black Sea Region and Basin due to the „New Cold War”
confrontation increases tendency multiplying those non-traditional military
threats and challenges undermining basis of the regional security and national
security of the regional actors and creating „anarchic disorder” modality in
the 21st Century. As a result, the Caucasus is a significant location by
connecting Middle East to Asia, Central Asia to Europe. Moreover, it has
borders with Black Sea and Caspian Sea which are important for energy
resources. By the way, it has ethnic and separatist conflicts that effected the
development of the region and the Caucasus states’ internal and external
policies. The west tried to provide energy without Russia, and Georgia is
playing important role for transportation of Caspian oil and gas reserves to
the West. Turkey has good relations with Georgia and NATO. On the other
meaning, Turkey has bases on its territory against Russia and it provides
security of these energy corridor by using NATO’s influence in the region.
Thus, the west is directly or indirectly in on the region with a NATO’s member
country, Turkey. To provide security, stability, economic stability, democracy,
securing energy corridor and existence of Georgia and the Caucasus is important
mission for Turkey and the west. So that, Turkey and Georgia have to enough
power and policy with regard to security and foreign policy to support
stability in the region.
The
geo-economic and geopolitical importance of a particular region is
characterized by long-term economic, management, territorial-spatial, and other
factors, as well as their impact on foreign relations and international
processes. The Caucasus has always been a zone of interest of many states of
Europe and Asia, as well as a cluster of sociopolitical and economic
contradictions. The current state of the world is such that more and more
countries are inclined to view the Caucasus as a zone of their interests, which
is largely due to the rising need of highly developed states for energy and raw
material resources and their interest in international projects aimed at
producing and transporting Caspian oil and gas, laying communication lines,
building infrastructure, and so on.
The
regional security implications are neatly imposed by geoeconomic indications,
with its components as are to be:
·
Geoeconomic warfare
·
Sanctions and embargos
·
Currency warfare
·
Asset seizures
·
Pipeline warfare
The geoecnomic wars in aegis of the region
remain one of the key geopolitical threats sparked with fierce competition of
the global power geoecnomic projects with involvement of the regional actors.
Russia endorsed and develops its own mega-geoeconomic project „North-South”
Transit Corridor (Sankt-Petersburg and Mumbai). The USA exploits and proposes
its own version of the „North-South” mega-geoeconomic project also transcended
the South Caspian and Caspian Basin but started from Alexanropolus (Greece) and
ended up in Mumbai (India). The Chinese mega-geoeconomic project „One Belt, One
Road” (OBOR) with $1 trillion in worth promotes further on „Middle Transit
Corridor” route also transcended the Caucasus-Caspian Region. That is why the
geoeconbomic wars are to be wagging into the following format:
v Russia „North-South” vs. USA „North-South”
v USA „North-South” vs. China „OBOR”
All these above-mentioned factors clearly
illustrated how and in which way the “New Cold War” dominates and abrogate
fully implementation of the national interests of the regional nations. Namely
connotation of “New Cold War” dilemma primarily lead to non-harmonization of
the national interests per se nations. As it is known, foreign policy issues
typically engage a multiplicity of values and interests that are often
difficult to harmonize[1]. However, the
confrontation modality even in aegis of New Cold War context and being labelled
as “Central Eurasian Rimland” land between Eurasian Union and Euro-Atlantic
Community could make possible to easy the stalemate via transforming the
Caucasus region as “peaceful island” and appease two confronted global powers
and alliances – a future forecast how is the scenario is possible to be
fulfilled and promoted.
Hence, the
Caucasus region as an indispensable part of the Black Sea Area is one of the
main factors in the make-up of security and stability in Europe and Asia. In
addition to the numerous other issues in the region, ethnic conflicts, ongoing
state-building processes, the presence of vast natural resources, and strategic
transport and energy corridors mean that the region is an extremely important
and sensitive area.
Vakhtang Maisaia
Professor, Ph.D. in political science and military
strategy
[1]
Alexander L. George (2006), “On Foreign Policy: Unfinished
Business”, Paradigm Publishers, London, p.5
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