Ukraine's expected counterattack and possible de-occupation of the country

 

Ukraine's expected counterattack and Possible De-Occupation of the Country

Nika Chitadze

Professor of the International Black Sea University

Director of the Center for International Studies

President of the George C. Marshall Alumni Union, Georgia - International and Security Research Center 

As expected, Ukraine's counteroffensive against the Russian occupation forces has already begun, although it has not yet entered the decisive phase. It should be noted that the past 5 months were particularly difficult for Ukrainian soldiers - the period when Ukraine began to save forces to prepare for a large-scale counteroffensive. In recent months, Ukraine has withdrawn most of its combat-ready units from the front line, and thousands of Ukrainian soldiers have gone abroad for training. The newly formed and refreshed brigades were left intact by the military-political leadership of Ukraine and did not involve them in heavy winter battles.

 

All this happened against the background of the winter campaign launched by Russia - the attention of the international media was mainly directed to the battle of Bakhmut, but the Russian army was attacking in 6 other directions during the same period. Outnumbered, the Ukrainian army once again exceeded expectations and ran an overall successful defensive campaign.

 

After the heavy winter battles and painful losses, as we have already mentioned, the announced counterattack of Ukraine began, which is associated with great expectations around the world. An attack that, according to many military experts, could irreversibly change the trajectory of the war.

There is no doubt about one thing - the upcoming counterattack will be the most important and large-scale military operation in the history of the Ukrainian army. The operation, which in itself may not end the war, will significantly bring the victory of Ukraine closer.

 

How will Ukraine attack?

 

In the same interview given to The Economist, Valery Zaluzhny listed the types and approximate number of heavy weapons that Ukraine would need to cross the border on February 24, 2022. Zaluzhn said that 300 tanks, 700 different types of armored vehicles, and 500 howitzers were needed for this.

 

Due to the secrecy of the information, it is difficult to talk about the exact quantities, but according to independent sources, Ukraine has already received the required amount of armaments.

Ukraine has been asking for modern Western-made tanks for a long time, but the agreement on the issue has been delayed due to the hesitation of several European countries. Finally, the so-called At Least the Tank coalition was formed. According to various data, Ukraine received a total of 575 tanks. This includes Western-made Leopard 2 and Challenger 2 tanks, although most of the tanks are modified Soviet-made vehicles.

 

According to various data, Ukraine received 325 infantry fighting vehicles (BMP) and a total of 1,180 different types of armored vehicles. Among them, we are talking about modern Western-made vehicles, such as the American Bradley and Stryker-type armored vehicles.

 

Along with air defense systems, one of the main priorities of the Western allies was to supply Ukraine with a sufficient number of artillery shells. The European Union agreed in principle on this issue - according to the plan, this year Ukraine will receive a total of 1 million artillery shells from European partners. Ukraine likely received a large amount of special mine-clearing equipment.

 

Discussions between the allies continued about the transfer of Western-made fighter jets to Ukraine. Western planes, fearing the escalation of the conflict, remained the last and still uncrossed red line self-imposed by the West. Agreement in principle on this issue was reached at the end of May at the G7 summit in Hiroshima. Ukrainian pilots have already left for training, but we can say for sure that Western planes will not participate in the announced counterattack.

 

American F-16s and Gripens could not, but for the upcoming counteroffensive, Ukraine received various types of Soviet aircraft from Poland, Slovakia, and North Macedonia. Despite the replenishment of the airfield, it is expected that it will not be enough to gain any air superiority for Ukraine. As in the case of Kharkiv and Kherson, Ukraine will not have air superiority this time either.

 

In addition, at the end of May, it became known that long-range Western missiles had already been delivered to Ukraine. Franco-British Storm Shadow missiles, whose export version has a range of up to 500 kilometers, were found at the disposal of ЗSU. Missiles from air bases increased the reach of the Ukrainian army by about 3.5 times. This might once again change the rules of the game for the Russians. There is no doubt that the Russian military-political leadership faced a new dilemma.

 

At the end of April, the commander of the NATO forces in Europe, Christopher Cavoli, in a speech to the US Congress, said that Ukraine had already received 98% of the promised weapons. The Ukrainian side had relatively cautious assessments - President Zelensky and the Minister of Defense periodically announced that they had not yet received the full range of weapons.

 

Against this background, the political leadership of Ukraine received guarantees of long-term support from the West. On May 13, it became known that in the coming months, Germany will provide Ukraine with the largest package of military aid, the value of which will be 2.7 billion euros.

 

In addition, it became known about Britain's decision to transfer long-range drones to Ukraine. A major armor package was agreed upon with France. Ukraine's main ally also continues to help - it is expected that the pre-approved limit of $46 billion will expire in the fall.

 

In addition, Ukraine should receive the first 2 battalions of American Abrams tanks in the fall. It is likely that during this period, Ukraine will also receive GLSDB-type artillery missiles with a range of 150 kilometers.

 

The provision of the next packages of military assistance in the context of the upcoming counteroffensive is another positive factor, which adds the necessary confidence and flexibility to the Ukrainian General Staff.

 

"Wars are started by professional soldiers and finished by teachers" - who attacks

 

During his stay in Ukraine at the end of February, the preparation of the counterinsurgency was visible to the naked eye - almost every second billboard in the cities was about the national recruitment campaign. Ukrainians were urged to join the so-called Assault Guard (Гвардия наступу), which would take part in the next counter-attack.

 

The time when citizens encountered military commissariats of Ukraine has changed. Most of those who wanted to go to war had already joined the armed forces. In recent months, Ukraine has been experiencing some difficulties in mobilizing its citizens. That is why a large-scale military service recruitment campaign was necessary. At the same time, forced mobilization was taking place in the streets of Ukraine.

 

Researchers identify a phenomenon that we can conventionally call the process of reverse natural selection - in the first phase of the war, as a rule, the most experienced and capable soldiers die. From this point of view, the main goal of the ongoing mobilization in Ukraine, in addition to the number of soldiers, was also to replenish the quality. Ukraine had to replace the junior officers lost in the initial phase of the war - sergeants, and captains and create new units that could launch an effective attack.

 

From this point of view, before February 24 and today, these are two different armies. The number of mobilized people in the units has increased, most of the manpower is not professional soldiers, but former civilians. This fact was summed up in one phrase by the commander-in-chief of ЗSU - "Wars are started by professional soldiers and finished by teachers, engineers..."

 

As part of an aggressive advertising campaign and continued mobilization, Ukraine formed 12 new brigades according to various data. By Ukrainian standards, the number of personnel in a brigade ranges from 3,000 to 5,000 soldiers, depending on the type of unit.

 

so-called Within the framework of the campaign to create the National Guard, the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine prepared a military unit consisting of 6 units. As a rule, the mentioned units are named after the guards included in the format of the National Guard and almost completely exhausted in the first phase of the war. For example, after a short pause, the Azov battalion will participate in the next counterattack. In total, we are talking about about 40,000 soldiers.

 

According to Le Monde, the Ukrainian army has prepared a total of 50,000 soldiers for the counter-attack, who did not participate in the battles of the past months. It is known that nine of the new brigades were trained in Western countries. Accordingly, 9 armored-tank brigades will be fully equipped with Western-made weapons. It is expected that each brigade will have at its disposal 200 tanks, up to 800 different types of armored vehicles, and 150 artillery pieces.

 

It is difficult to say how many new brigades Ukraine itself managed to create with the help of individual allies. It is known that outside the coalition, Poland, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic undertook to train and fully equip one Ukrainian brigade. With a high probability, the total number of units prepared for the attack does not exceed 15 brigades. This total is close to the indicator named in Valery Zaluzhn's program article at the end of 2022.

 

Without exaggeration, we can say that the Ukrainian army is in much better shape than the enemy in the face of the upcoming counter-offensive, although their task is different and much more difficult.

 

Defense positions of Russia

 

At the moment, Russia has occupied 103 thousand square kilometers, which is 18% of the sovereign territory of Ukraine. It is an area roughly the size of Britain.

 

Anticipating the imminent counterattack from Ukraine, the Russian General Staff started organizing the fortification line with the accuracy of the manual. Finally, by this time, along the entire length of the front, the Russian army had organized a large-scale, well-organized network of fortifications and defense barriers.

 

Russia's defense boundaries look like this - it is a minefield, followed by the so-called A line of dragon's teeth, followed by another minefield. In turn, behind this field is a network of trenches and ditches, which is completed by another anti-tank ditch.

 

The most well-fortified region by Russia is Zaporizhzhia - a front breakthrough would be most effective for Ukraine in this direction. The Russian General Staff pays special attention to the Berdyansk Airfield, which is the largest hub of the Russian Aerospace Forces on this section of the front.

 

The north of the annexed Crimea is particularly heavily fortified - from Armiansk to Jankoi, the occupiers have a strong line of defensive fences. Both Armiansk and Dzhanko are key transport hubs on this section of the front.

 

Attention is drawn to the fortifications near Tokmak, Polokh, and Bilmak. These settlements of the Zaporizhia region are practically surrounded by Russian defense fences. Defense lines around Lysychansk, Popasna, and Severodonetsk are relatively weak, where the main deterrent is the so-called There are lines of dragon's teeth.

 

Even a well-organized network of defensive fences cannot guarantee security by itself. Of critical importance will be the level of combat capability of the soldiers and units that will be entrenched in these defensive lines and trenches. Moreover, the purpose of the defensive barriers is not primarily to prevent the breakthrough of the front, but to slow down the opponent in the event of a breakthrough.

 

The main question is how the Russian army will act at the moment of the start of a large-scale counteroffensive in Ukraine. In other words, will it be repeated in the Kharkiv counterattack - when the Russian units chose to flee the battle? The mood of the Russian army in the first 24 hours of the counter-offensive may be decisive.

 

After the defeats and losses experienced in Ukraine, it will not be an exaggeration to say that the Russian army that existed before February 24 has already passed into the past. The quality and efficiency of the army have been drastically reduced. Russia may have managed to replace the losses quantitatively, but it is simply impossible to do it qualitatively in such a short time.

 

Over the past winter, the world has seen what the Russian military is capable of on the offensive, but the defense barriers built by Russia have yet to be tested in combat. Just as we have not seen the "new" Russian army in defense.

 

Behind these reinforced fortifications, Russia has placed approximately 140,000 soldiers along the entire front. This means that, unlike Kharkiv or Kherson attack, ЗSU will have a slight numerical advantage at best.

 

The fighting spirit of 140,000 soldiers can be discussed in different ways - their appeals and complaints on social networks give us only fragmentary information. Therefore, it is difficult to say how capable the Russian army will be, although it is naive to expect its sudden collapse.

 

"The morale of the soldiers of the Russian army is variable - from fatigue to worse," says Dara Masiko. This fatigue factor may play a useful role for Ukraine. At the moment, 97% of the Russian armed forces are involved in the war against Ukraine. This rate is much higher than during the wars in Chechnya and Afghanistan.

 

Endless combat missions, inadequate rest, and rotation due to manpower shortages mean that Russian soldiers have long been under combat stress, fueling feelings of dissatisfaction and helplessness.

 

Against this background, the main question sounds as follows - will the Russian soldiers fight or run away?

 

Direction of attack

 

If we do not take into account the most radical versions voiced by Russian Z-bloggers and propagandists, military experts and Western media distinguish five possible directions of the Ukrainian counter-offensive:

 

Zaporizhzhia

 

This direction is considered the most promising for Ukraine. If the attack is successful, the Ukrainians will not only take back the economically important Zaporizhia nuclear power plant, but they will also be able to divide the land corridor of Crimea in two by reaching the coast of the Sea of Azov. This essentially means isolating the Russian garrison in Crimea. Zaporizhzhia is almost 50% of the Ukrainian coastline.

 

 

Almost the entire territory of the Crimean peninsula will be within the reach of Ukrainian artillery. According to several military experts, in such a situation, the situation of the units stationed in Crimea will quickly deteriorate, which could create the basis for another "gesture of goodwill" or a semi-voluntary retreat like Kherson.

An attack in this direction is made difficult for Ukraine by several factors: a network of well-organized defense fences and fortifications, an extended space that complicates a ground attack against a more powerful enemy in the air.

 

Wuhledar

 

By breaking through the front in this direction, the Ukrainians would be able to establish control over the important transport junction of Volnovakha. And in case of further development of the attack, the Ukrainians will go to Mariupol on the same coast as the Sea of Azov, which will also divide the occupying group in Ukraine into two.

 

Kherson

 

The biggest disadvantage of this direction is the natural barrier in the form of the Dnipro River and the short radius of action of Russian aviation operating from Crimea.

 

In case of success, ЗSU will physically approach the occupied peninsula and will be able to engage in artillery treatment of military bases and facilities located there. There is a prospect of liberating Nova-Kakhovka, which, therefore, means controlling the Northern Crimean Canal. The annexed peninsula was supplied with drinking water through this channel, and the Russians blew it up to stop the Ukrainian attack.

 

Bakhmut

 

A massive attack by Ukraine on the flanks of Bakhmut and then the return of control over the already destroyed city, which Yevgeny Prigozhin has been talking about for a long time, will have more political significance than military-strategic.

 

Swatove

 

In the case of a successful attack by Ukraine in this direction, they will regain an important transport hub, which will later open the prospect of an attack on the Lisychansk-Severodonetsk agglomeration.

 

Considering the local terrain, the Ukrainians have the opportunity to develop an offensive in the northern part of Luhansk. This will give them a chance to cross the February 24 border. Another thing is that in this case, ЗSU will overstretch the supply and front line, which may create favorable conditions for the attack of the occupiers from the north and south.

 

In addition, some military experts believe that the attack on Ukraine will be represented by several relatively small attacks, and only at the last moment will it become clear in which direction the main effort is coming.

 

Why was the start of the counterattack delayed?

 

Initially, Western sources indicated April as the date of the possible start of a counteroffensive against Ukraine. It was believed that if the counterattack was postponed, Russia would have more time to prepare and strengthen its defenses. An additional factor was the information campaign carried out by high-ranking officials of the Ukrainian government, which often had the character of an information operation.

 

The announcement of a large-scale counter-offensive and the endless talk about it often achieved the intended goal - amid constant tensions, the Russian Ministry of Defense and Z-bloggers announced twice last month alone that the Ukrainian counter-offensive had begun. These reports were accompanied by the shooting of large units in different directions of the front, which gave the Ukrainian armed forces additional information.

 

The Ukrainian government's information policy also had its downsides - great expectations were created among the country's allies and inside the country regarding the attack, which became an additional pressure factor. Against this background, the rhetoric of Ukrainian politicians has also changed. In recent weeks, senior Ukrainian officials have hinted at the dangers of excessive expectations, and have openly stated that the upcoming counterinsurgency would not end the war.

Several factors have been cited as the main reasons for the delay of the counteroffensive - including the delay in the delivery of Western weapons, the changed plan of the attack, and unusually frequent rains in southeastern Ukraine. One of the most important factors was likely the release of the Pentagon Papers. The documents did not contain precise and detailed information about the counterinsurgency plan, although there was talk of quite sensitive information about new brigades and Western weapons.

 

Against this background, Ukraine's announced counterinsurgency became the central topic of the Western media. Opinions about Ukraine's readiness were divided. The President of the Czech Republic, General Petr Pavel, spoke on this topic during his visit to Ukraine. According to Pavel, the failure of the counterattack would be disastrous for Ukraine, because there would be no chance for it this year. According to Pavel, it would be better if the Ukrainian army postponed the attack until the moment when it would have the greatest chance of success.

 

According to the Ukrainian military expert, Mikhail Zhirokhov, another reason for delaying the deadline was Russia's missile campaign. Throughout May, rocket attacks were carried out on Kyiv daily. Some of the strikes were likely successful - on May 13, video footage of a large-scale fire in the city of Khmelnytskyi was circulated on social networks. OSINT specialists say that the missile hit a large warehouse of munitions. According to various reports, tank shells, aviation, and anti-aircraft missiles were stored in the warehouse.

 

According to Mikhail Zhirokhov, the strikes on ammunition depots were quite effective, and Ukraine needed additional time to restore resources.

 

In addition, the missile terror organized by Russia served another purpose - to limit as much as possible the launch of mobile anti-aircraft systems on the front line.

 

According to Piotr Chernyk, a lieutenant colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, all these factors existed, although the postponement of the counterattack was mainly related to the changed plans of the military leadership.

 

"Ukraine's military leaders have gone through maximum and detailed modeling. We have no room for error, our attack must be carried out with surgical precision," Chernyk says.

 

Last week, the armed forces of Ukraine became noticeably more active along the entire front. At the same time, President Zelensky's statements have also changed - if even 2 weeks ago Zelensky said that Ukraine does not yet have enough weapons to launch an attack, on June 4 the President of Ukraine said that the country is ready for a counterattack.

 

organized chaos

 

It is a popular expression among military experts that any military operation is organized chaos to varying degrees. This is especially true when it comes to a large-scale offensive operation.

 

Against the backdrop of an impending, if already launched, counter-offensive, the main weakness of the Ukrainian army is its lack of experience in such large-scale attacks. Regardless of the final results, this year's counterattack will be the largest military operation in the history of the Ukrainian army.

 

According to Western military experts, the success of the attack depends most of all on whether ЗSU will be able to carry out the Combined Arms Operation. It is a military operation in which various types of troops from infantry to aviation are involved and whose actions are coordinated and synchronized to produce a culminating effect.

 

This is the central concept of the modern Western armies, which is significantly different from the Soviet and post-Soviet counterparts. Ukraine's success in the coming weeks will depend on overcoming and uprooting Soviet inertia. Valery Zaluzhn also considers overcoming the legacy of the Soviet military school as his main mission.

 

Ukraine's military is indeed much more decentralized and autonomous than Russia's, but this legacy is still alive.

 

It is the operation of combined units that are considered the best method to overcome such an organized line of fortifications that Russia has built in the southeast of Ukraine. To overcome such lines, joint and proper action of infantry units, intelligence, engineers, armored vehicles, and aviation is required. The fact that Ukraine will not have the advantage in the air this time makes it even more difficult. The success of this type of operation mostly involves air dominance.

 

The fact is that the attacks of the Ukrainian army until now were of a different nature - they were mainly maneuvers based on the superiority of artillery fire. In the Kharkiv and Kherson counterattacks, Ukraine tried to gain an advantage in artillery fire on local sections with a quick maneuver, which created operational space for them. Despite the success of the raids, it was the scale and type of operation that Ukrainians will have to organize in the coming weeks and months.

 

"Theoretically, prepared defense lines can be quickly overcome with precision strikes, but this requires expert coordination of artillery, infantry, and armor," said British reserve officer Nick Gannell.

 

At the same time, many military experts point out that the length of the front of action in favor of Ukraine - Russia cannot protect each section equally. That is why, in a large-scale attack, the so-called It starts with formative attacks. This implies an increase in the intensity of artillery and missile strikes on those sections of the front, the breakthrough of which will bring maximum results.

 

This involves the rapid movement of relatively small units on the same sections, testing the enemy's defense lines, observing the speed of movement of their reserves, and creating a more or less accurate picture of the enemy's action pattern.

 

The armed forces of Ukraine started such operations on May 12. In recent days, the scope and scale of operations and attacks have increased. Ukraine's goal is to create additional dilemmas for the adversary with such operations, to overload their chain of command and control, which, in the end, should have ended by paralyzing the same chain.

 

"We will most likely see several small attacks rather than one big, concentrated strike," says Australian General Mick Ryan.

 

The events of the last few days show us that the General Staff of Ukraine follows the path of gradual increase in pressure when the most combat-capable brigades are involved in the battle not simultaneously, but gradually. This could increase the pressure on the Russian defense lines and eventually have a culminating effect on a significant section of the front.

 

Did it start in the ЗСУ counterattack?

 

"On June 4, 2 days before the day of the liberation of Europe from Nazism, Ukraine started a counterattack", - with this text, the British The Economist responded to the activation of the Ukrainian armed forces on the entire front line. Later, the Washington Post also informed us about the start of the Ukrainian counter-offensive.

 

The activation of the Ukrainian army on the entire front was followed by the panic of Z-bloggers, and later by the information campaign prepared by the Ministry of Defense of Russia. Shoigu's agency announced that a large-scale attack by Ukrainians was successfully repelled and the operation was led by Valery Gerasimov.

 

As expected, the Ukrainian offensive developed on the Zaporizhia front, more specifically around the key city of Melitopol. At the same time, Ukrainian attacks began near Bakhmut and Vuhledar.

Foreign consultants for the Ukrainian army say that the defense lines and fortifications built by Russia are not as strong as predicted. According to the advisers, to minimize losses and prevent the transfer of reserves to Russia, Ukraine should launch rapid and maximum-force attacks.

 

 

"High-ranking officials of the administration were pleasantly surprised by the greater progress than expected - Ukrainian forces advanced 5-10 kilometers in the mined section. This strengthened hopes that Ukraine will be able to develop an attack in the direction of Mariupol, Melitopol, and other coastal settlements occupied by Russia," writes David Ignatius.

 

The southern direction of Donetsk is considered promising, from where the occupied Mariupol faces a direct threat. Also, Russian defense lines are slightly thinner in Donetsk than in Zaporizhia.

In recent days, Russia has deployed its most combat-capable units (ВДВ) to strengthen positions north of Bakhmut. This is expected to reveal weak points in the occupiers' defense lines.

 

From this point of view, the action of the units that went on a raid from the territory of Ukraine in the Belgorod region was useful. Against the background of the massive artillery treatment of the district, the evacuation of a city of 40,000 people is underway in Russia. Recently, the governor of the district, Vyacheslav Gladkov, confirmed that the village of Novaya Tavolzhanka is controlled by intelligence-sabotage units.

 

Despite Ukraine's unequivocal activation, likely, the attack has not yet started in full force. The Ukrainian army is looking for weak points in the Russian defense lines to break through the front on this relatively weak section.

 

At this stage, ЗSU is still testing the soil before bringing the best units into action. Of the brigades we have confirmed participation in, none of the 9 brigades were trained and armed by the West. When we see these brigades in action, there will be no more questions about the start of the Ukrainian counteroffensive.

 

According to the latest reports, the Ukrainian army is making progress on certain sections of the front, but they are facing more resistance than expected from the occupiers and are suffering substantial losses in armor.

 

the last word

 

According to a study conducted by the Center for Strategic Studies of Uppsala University, 25% of wars started between countries end in less than 1 month, and 26% in less than a year. According to the same study, if the war between 2 countries lasted for more than 1 year, as a rule, it lasts longer than 10 years.

 

The war in Ukraine has already become the largest and largest conventional conflict on the European continent, and, likely, the war will not end even with the maximum success of the current offensive in Ukraine. Nevertheless, the success of the raid could be crucial in the political context, especially in light of crucial elections in Western democracies next year.

 

After the initial failure in Ukraine, Vladimir Putin's strategy was manifested in Mozda, exhausting Ukraine and its allies. Putin hoped that over time the West would tire of supporting Ukraine. At the same time, using energy and economic blackmail, the Kremlin over the past 15 months has been trying to make the West's aid to Ukraine as expensive as possible.

So far, Western democracies have maintained an enviable unity, and their leaders say they will continue to help Ukraine as long as it is needed. Despite these statements, it is expected that if the counterattack fails, skeptical voices in the West will intensify. For some Western leaders in an ambush position, this will open a new space for talking about the futility of helping Ukraine.

 

In this sense, the success of the Ukrainian counter-offensive will be crucial not only for Ukraine but also for the future security architecture of Europe.