A failed
military coup in Russia. What happened?
Russia avoided a civil war. At
least at this point. Government representatives and the so-called parties
reached an agreement during the negotiations between the private military
company "Wagner" mediated by the President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko,
although only certain details of this agreement are known so far.
"Wagner" combat units
are returning to the field camps located in the occupied territory of Ukraine.
Their future is uncertain. It is only known that, according to the agreement
reached, they will not be prosecuted for attempting a military coup. According
to the same agreement, the head of "Wagner" Yevgeny Prigozhin will
leave Russia and go to Belarus (probably he is already in Belarus).
On the other hand, nothing is known about what Prigogine retreated in exchange for. His main demand was the dismissal and punishment of the leadership of the Ministry of Defense, specifically Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov. Accordingly, Russian military commentators assume that a purge will begin in the Ministry of Defense in the coming days.
After the negotiations, Prigozhin
issued a new address, where he does not say anything about the details of the
agreement and stated that he decided to withdraw to avoid bloodshed.
As for the victims, a total of 15
representatives of the Ministry of Defense, mostly military pilots, were
killed. One "IL-16" type airplane and three "Ka-52" type
helicopters belonging to the Ministry of Defense were shot down. There are
probably victims among the civilian population as well. In one of the
recordings, Prigozhin talks about the destruction by a combat helicopter of the
government forces of an ordinary passenger bus full of civilians, which
happened to be next to a convoy of "Wagners" while driving on the
highway.
As for the general situation,
there was complete chaos, panic, and confusion in Russia on Saturday - June 24.
A rapid devaluation of the Russian ruble began. Air tickets have become more
expensive. Several influential oligarchs immediately left Russia. It can be
said that a sharp polarization has started in the country. Footage from Rostov
captured by "Wagner" was released, showing the fight between
supporters of the government and opponents - ordinary citizens - in the center
of the city.
Several heads of regions came out
publicly and declared that they are on the side of the president. The Patriarch
of Russia said that he is praying for Russia and President Putin.
The formal cause of rebellion
The relationship between
"Wagner" and the Ministry of Defense became strained in the spring
when Prigozhin's soldiers attacked the city of Bakhmut. At that time, Prigozhin
released several video appeals in which he asked for shells. It got to the
point that he accused Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General
Staff Valery Gerasimov of sabotage.
In response, the Ministry of
Defense announced that they supplied "Wagner" with the necessary
ammunition in the same way as the official formations of the Russian Army, and
they could not allow an exception for the fighters of a private company.
At the end of May, after the
Bakhmut operation, Prigozhin announced that his units would temporarily leave
the front line and move to the rear to rest and gather strength.
After "Wagner" left
Bakhmut, an incident occurred that made the situation even more tense.
Prigozhin said that the roads by which his units were leaving the city were
mined by the Russian army. In addition, the "Wagners" arrested a
colonel of the Russian army, who was responsible for this mining, and led to other
damaging actions.
After that, the Ministry of
Defense of Russia issued a decree according to which all private military
companies and volunteer battalions were obliged to come under the Ministry of
Defense and sign a contract with it by July 1 of this year.
Prigozhin categorically refused
this and, on the contrary, called on the Russian companies and volunteers
fighting in Ukraine to unite in "Wagner".
The main incident happened on June 23. According to Prigozhin, official formations of the Ministry of Defense launched a rocket attack on their military camp at dawn, which resulted in casualties. After that, Prigozhin moved his units first to Rostov, and then to Moscow, announcing that his goal was to capture the main traitors - Shoigu and Gerasimov.
The Ministry of Defense of
Russia, for its part, denies the rocket attack on Wagner. They declared
Prigozhin and his supporter’s traitors and initiated a case under the article
of an attempted military coup.
Chronology of events
On Friday night, Yevgeny
Prigozhin turned back his units stationed in the occupied territory of Ukraine
and pushed them deep into Russia. On the way, there were several skirmishes
between him and the regular military units.
Prigozhin stated that he has
25,000 fighters at his disposal and another 25,000 in operational reserve.
The Russian authorities have
declared an anti-terrorist regime in the Voronezh and Rostov regions, as well
as in the Moscow region and the city of Moscow. Citizens were urged to stay at
home and avoid going out on the streets.
Yevgeny Prigozhin was charged
with an attempted military coup.
Combat units from different
regions of Russia began to be intensively sent to Moscow.
In the early hours of Saturday,
the rebels took Rostov, the largest city in southern Russia, where the high
command of the Russian army was located, without a fight.
Practically no one resisted the
"Wagnerians". According to Prigozhin himself, the Ministry of Defense
sent units composed of inexperienced conscripts against him, but they did not
prevent "Wagner" from moving. Prigozhin himself states that their
military convoy was attacked several times from the air and they were also
forced to shoot down three helicopters belonging to the Ministry of Defense.
By 9 a.m., the first meeting
between Prigozhin and representatives of the Ministry of Defense was held at
the main headquarters of the Southern Military District of Russia in Rostov,
which ended in vain.
Around the same time, combat
helicopters of the Ministry of Defense attacked Rostov and destroyed the oil
terminal.
By 10 a.m., the "Wagner"
had already entered the city of Voronezh, which is located 500 kilometers from
Moscow. In the afternoon, there were reports of large-scale clashes in the
Voronezh region.
At around 11 o'clock, President
Vladimir Putin made an emergency address. He declared Prigozhin a state traitor
and said that he will not allow civil strife in the country and appropriate
measures have already been taken.
In response, Prigozhin himself
said that he is acting for the good of Russia and is going to fight to the
death.
It is worth noting the fact that
in his appeals, which Prigozhin gave periodically on Fridays and Saturdays, he
never mentioned President Putin personally in a negative context. He only
hinted at the corrupt old men in power.
After Putin's speech, the leader
of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov, issued an emergency statement and expressed full
support to the president.
"Departments of the Ministry
of Defense and "Rosguard" from the Republic of Chechnya have already
left for the tension zone. We will do everything to preserve the unity of
Russia and protect its statehood. The rebellion must be suppressed, and if it
requires the use of harsh measures, we are ready... This is a military coup!
There is no justification for this!" Kadyrov wrote on
"Telegram".
By about 2 p.m., the
"Wagner" convoy passed through the Voronezh region, entered the
Lipetsk region, and continues to advance. Prigozhin writes that practically no
one opposes them. Units of the "Rosguard" and the regular army give
way to them, and in addition, several hundred soldiers have openly joined the
"Wagnerians".
Around 4 o'clock, information
spread that the "Wagnerian" convoys had already entered the Moscow
region. This resulted in panic in Moscow itself. Air tickets to foreign
destinations have become more expensive. For comparison, a Moscow-Yerevan
flight ticket on Saturday cost 198,000 rubles (10 thousand USD). The
depreciation of the ruble also began - the exchange rate of 1 American dollar
was already close to 100 rubles.
It was also reported that
internet access was restricted for ordinary citizens. At the entrances to
Moscow, units of the Ministry of Defense set up checkpoints and firing points.
They also started digging trenches.
Footage of how
"Wagner's" military equipment breaks the barriers set up for them on
the road has been circulated on the Internet. There was also footage showing
how bulldozers are digging a road on the federal highway passing through the
Lipetsk region to stop the advance of the "Wagner". There were also
reports about the explosion of one of the strategic bridges on the
"Wagner" route in the Moscow region.
At about 5 o'clock, the
"Akhmat" battalion, sent from Chechnya, approached Rostov and stopped
a few kilometers from the city. Probably, a small group of
"Kadyrovites" also entered the city. "Telegram channels"
close to "Wagner" released the footage, which, they claim, describes
the disarmament and arrest of Kadyrov formations by "Wagner" in the
center of Rostov.
Around 8 p.m., a new negotiation
between the parties began. In this case, the president of Belarus, Alexander
Lukashenko, acted as a mediator. Later he said that he has known Prigozhin
personally for 20 years and that is why he agreed to the talks.
By 10 p.m., it became known that
the parties reached a peace agreement. Prigozhin announced that
"Wagner" was returning to the field camps.
The first unsuccessful
negotiation
Prigozhin's first target was the
city of Rostov because this is where the command of the Russian army operating
in Ukraine is located and where the chief of the general staff, Valery
Gerasimov, is based.
On Saturday morning, the
"Wagner" was already in the city. They easily occupied all strategic
facilities and the headquarters of the Southern Military District. It was here
that Prigozhin's meeting took place between the Deputy Minister of Defense of
Russia Yunusbek Yevkurov and the Deputy Chief of the General Staff Vladimir
Alekseev.
It is known that Gerasimov
himself, who was one of Prigozhin's main targets, was in Rostov on Friday.
According to one of the versions spread on the Russian "Telegram"
channels, he left the city at dawn on Saturday. According to the second
version, Gerasimov remained in Rostov, although he left the headquarters
building and hid in a private apartment with his relatives in the city.
Yevkurov and Alekseev themselves
came to the headquarters, which was already occupied by Prigozhin. A recording
of their conversation was published on the Internet.
In the recording, Prigozhin makes various accusations against the Ministry of Defense. According to him, "Wagner" was attacked several times while moving. As a result, the Wagnerites shot down three helicopters and if necessary, they will shoot down more.
In addition, Prigozhin talks
about a bus full of civilians, which accidentally happened to be next to the
"Wagner" on the federal highway, and which was blown up by a missile
launched from a helicopter belonging to the Ministry of Defense.
Yevkurov and Alekseev say in
response that they have no information about this.
In addition, Prigozhin sternly
asks Yevkurov to talk to him "officially". Yevkurov evasively excuses
himself and says that he did not even think of insulting him.
At the end of the conversation,
Prigozhin says that he is convinced of his truth and that he is acting to save
Russia.
Second negotiation and final
results
Little is known about the talks
on Saturday night. The press secretary of the Russian President, Dmitry Peskov,
revealed only some details of the agreement - the case against Prigozhin was
terminated, Prigozhin himself will travel to Belarus, and the guarantee of his
safety during this trip will be only Putin's word. Those "Wagnerians"
who refused to participate in Prigozhin's "Justice March" and
remained in field camps will sign contracts with the Ministry of Defense. The
rest of the "Wagner" group will not be prosecuted.
The future of "Wagner"
is uncertain at this stage. According to the decree issued by the Ministry of
Defense at the beginning of June, "Wagner" is obliged to sign a
contract with the Ministry by July 1 and come under its control. Prigozhin
categorically refused this, and this was one of the main reasons for his
rebellion. Against the background of this news, what will happen after July 1
is completely unclear.
It is also unclear what Prigozhin
gave in exchange for and whether personnel changes will begin in the Ministry
of Defense. Peskov states that this topic was not discussed at all during the
negotiations.
The only one who won
unconditionally as a result of this negotiation is the President of Belarus,
Alexander Lukashenko. Analysts are already debating what he can ask Putin to do
in exchange for his help in solving such a serious problem.
According to analysts, the most
important result of Prigozhin's rebellion is that the image and authority of
Vladimir Putin in Russia itself have been significantly shaken. Putin declared
Prigozhin a traitor on Saturday morning and said that he had issued appropriate
orders to neutralize him, although the "Wagnerians" had traveled so
far into the depths of Russia that no one dared to seriously oppose them.
The very fact that Putin needed
the intervention of his "junior colleague" Alexander Lukashenko to solve
the problem also damages his image as an all-powerful leader. It is also
interesting that Prigozhin and his fighters, who were declared traitors, were
forgiven.
At the same time, Prigozhin's
authority increased dramatically. From this point of view, even the footage of
the departure of the "Wagnerians" and Prigozhin personally from
Rostov was significant. He practically became a national hero, commanding the
most combat-capable military force in Russia, shedding blood for the
"Russian world" and at the same time moving normally on the street
and interacting with ordinary citizens.
It is also possible to talk about
the psychological change in the society. In particular, until now there was no
commandment of "the second man" in Russia. President Putin's
authority covered everyone and everything. After the events of June 23-24,
Prigozhin is already the "second man" in the state.
In addition, these events showed
the weakness of the Kremlin in more or less serious internal conflicts, and
today the Russian government, primarily in the eyes of the Russian public
itself, does not seem as invincible and irreplaceable as it was before June 23.
With this aborted or staged rebellion,
the image of Russia fell sharply
It is necessary to note that Putin needed to
present himself as a strong ruler even to influence the electorate because he
knows the mentality of his people - Russians like "strong, angry
rulers". And now it turned out that Putin is no longer like that and
Prigozhin is more popular, he was sent off with such applause and ovations in
Belarus, it is clear that they support him. With this failed or staged
rebellion, the image of the Russian government in the world was significantly
shaken. The "Wagnerians" intensively published videos of the torture
of captives and said that everyone who goes against us is waiting for this.
Russian propaganda made a legend out of them. A large part of the population
liked their brutal, criminal, neo-Nazi, and terrorist ideology. Maybe because
Russians are disappointed with Putin's rule - they realized that "the
dictator has weakened".
It is also worth noting that throughout the day, many people in Russia and abroad believed that this was a struggle for the throne, but then Prigozhin mixed things up, but the struggle for power does not end so easily. Most likely, Prigozhin was trying to fit the mantle of a national leader who had put himself aside to awaken his people. Moreover, everything he spoke about the situation in the army, on the battle line, was true. In the Russian army, in the generals, the situation is really difficult, the mechanism of management and control is broken, and there are many serious problems with ammunition, food, order, etc. Putin is being lied to, in reality, they have a 3-4 times greater loss of both human and military equipment and weapons than expected.
What happened at the end of the
day?
There are several versions of
what happened at the end of the day when Prigozhin stopped his attack on
Moscow, although it is not known under what conditions Prigozhin retreated. If
Putin punishes Shoigu and Gerasimov and appoints new cadres, people with
Prigozhin's mentality to their posts, it will be very bad for everyone, for
Ukraine, and for other neighboring and non-neighboring countries.
Because if until now Russia's
actions were unpredictable, now it will become worse - whether they have the
resources or not, they are still trying to prove their
"invincibility". They need war to save themselves. If Putin punished
Shoigu-Gerasimov, that is, he still has the power, to make decisions alone and
will try to prove his omnipotence. He even plans to punish Shoigu-Gerasimov or
one of them, he will blame the defeat in the war on them. If this happens, then
there will be hidden conflicts, internal purges, and terror. Putin already had
paranoia (this is also said by those who escaped from his team), and after
that, it will worsen, because such a person is attacked by traitors everywhere.
For those who are appointed in place of Shoigu or Gerasimov, all initiatives on
the front line, and independent decision-making will probably be limited.
This rebellion showed that
everyone was thinking of their interests - even Chechen leader Kadyrov, who
pretends that the sun is rising on Putin's side for him, limited himself to a
few neutral statements and waited for the events to develop. He withdrew his
units from Ukraine, but he delayed near Rostov, if the situation turned to a
civil war, he would take his army to Chechnya and strengthen himself there. It
can be said that the leader of Chechnya is not as stupid as some people think, he
has a very good self-preservation instinct - he knows that the entry of his
units into Moscow would be counterproductive because the Russians are more
aggressive towards the Chechens than to the Ukrainians. In short, no matter how
this news ends, in any case, Putin's image has been tarnished. This will
further weaken his rule, and in the eyes of the West, Russian state
institutions will be buried. Prigozhin, a member of his team who does not even
have official status, crossed red lines but was forgiven.
Perhaps less believable is the
theory that this was a staged military coup by Putin to see who was supportive
and who was a traitor. Putin would consider that this would reflect badly on
his reputation. There is a version that Putin can no longer control the
situation, which is indicated by many things, even the fact that a few days
before Shoigu told him during the handover of Patak that we will have a reserve
army by the end of June, which is impossible, Russia does not have any
resources for this. The mutiny was probably real and the Wagnerites had planned
it a long time ago, who would be the leaders and how it would be distributed,
would probably appear as a trace of the development of the processes.
What could be the reason that
Prigozhin stopped the attack on Moscow?
Several versions can be
considered as to why the Wagnerian attack on Moscow stopped, namely:
According to one version, the
decision of Yevgeny Prigozhin, the commander of the private military company
"Wagner", to stop the attack on Moscow, was threatened by the Russian
special services against the family members of the company's leaders.
In addition, it should be noted
that the number of "Wagner" mercenaries was 8,000 fighters, and not
the previously announced 25,000, therefore, most likely, during any attempt to
attack the Russian capital, the Wagnerites would be defeated.
In addition, the military
campaign of the "Wagner" group in Ukraine was financed from the
Russian budget, while on the territory of Russia, naturally, the Wagnerites did
not have any state funding, and the movement of armed fighters over long
distances, feeding soldiers, provision of fuel for military equipment,
accommodation of fighters and overall long (even a few days) military campaigns
needed appropriate financial resources and logistics.
The line should also be drawn to
the fact that Prigozhin had calculated that the military would massively move
to his side and join him, and as a result, he would achieve the goal without
firing a gun. But, there was no mass transfer of soldiers to Prigozhin's side.
When Prigozhin approached Moscow,
where he was to be confronted by the special forces of the 45th Brigade loyal
to Putin, the "Wagner", which consisted mainly of staff officers, did
not want to shoot for the special forces, since many of them were themselves
from this special forces. This ended the riot. After the failure of the coup,
negotiations were held with the participation of Lukashenko, which ended in an
"honorable capitulation" for Prigozhin. To this day, it is not known
what formal deal was made with the "Wagner" leader if such a deal was
made at all.
Prigozhin's voyage showed that Moscow is quite vulnerable. In the conditions of the war with Ukraine, Moscow, and the Kremlin's defense capabilities are not so great. No one can guarantee that some brigadier general will not want to repeat Prigozhin's voyage. But, even in this case, it will be decided whether the Russian army supports him or not. With one brigade, you can't take power and you can't keep it. For this, the support of the army and society is needed.
Accordingly, the situation will
calm down temporarily, but the boiling will continue. Centrist forces, which
have become active these days, will move to obvious action because everyone
will understand that "the king is naked" and can no longer rule the
country. That's why everyone will start pulling the rope towards themselves
because they saw that Prigozhin reached Moscow very easily - that is, it's
worth a try, if you can't organize a coup, you can negotiate
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