Reflection of the War on China-Russia Relations

 

Reflection of the War on China-Russia Relations

Nika Chitadze

Director of the Center for International Studies

Professor of the International Black Sea University

President of the George C. Marshall Alumni Union, Georgia - International and Security Research Center 

 

It can be said that the war in Ukraine forced the Chinese government to look differently at its international policy. In this case, the question can be asked, what has changed in the "friendship" between the two largest countries, and why does official Beijing distance itself from the Kremlin?

 

In early February 2022, 20 days before Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Vladimir Putin met with Chinese leader Xi Jinping. It was after this meeting that famous statements appeared that friendship between countries "has no borders" and "there are no prohibited zones in cooperation".

 

Based on various sources, we can say that at the mentioned meeting they discussed the situation around Ukraine and the Kremlin "did not rule out taking any possible measures" if someone attacks Russian territory. But at the same time, Putin did not inform the Chinese leader that he was going to start a war in Ukraine.

 

After the start of the war, some Chinese citizens, who actively supported Putin's decision, shared a video on social networks with a translation of Vladimir Putin's speech announcing the start of the war. At the same time, the position of the Chinese government was not so unambiguous.

Xi Jinping, who once called Vladimir Putin his "best friend," actually responded to the war with restraint.

 

Maintaining this strategic uncertainty helps China better assess which approach is best for it at a given moment:

 

On the one hand, Beijing has openly blamed Washington for this war - presumably related to the expansion of NATO in Europe. On the other hand, he is in no rush to help Russia.

It is also worth noting that Russia has repeatedly asked China for support - both financial and technological. Xi Jinping did not object, but all talks were "tense".

 

The results of the talks between Putin and Xi Jinping

 

Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping met for the last time in September 2022. These talks took place at a time when Russian exports to China were growing rapidly, while imports from China to Russia were slowing - despite Moscow's strong interest in Chinese investment, technology, and bilateral trade. At the same time, a large-scale counter-offensive of Ukrainian troops was taking place on the front.

 

After the meeting, Putin said he highly appreciated the "balanced position of Chinese friends" regarding the war in Ukraine. Xi Jinping agreed: "China is willing to take the role of great powers together with Russia and play a leadership role to bring stability and positive energy to the world."

 

At the same time, it can be assumed that by bowing to Putin, China is trying to reduce its international isolation and improve relations with some Western countries. Especially - with the European Union, its important trading partner.

 

In September, when the talks between Putin and Xi Jinping were held, China's position itself cannot be called simple. Although China has undergone an economic transformation in recent years, moving from a poor country to the world's second-largest economy, China's economic growth has slowed somewhat in recent years. There were several reasons for this, including the permanent lockdown announced due to the coronavirus pandemic, the crisis in the real estate market, etc.

 

The fighting in Ukraine created several more problems for China:

 

       •    Putin's gas war against the EU has meant that Western consumers have much less money to spend on Chinese goods.

 

       •     The conflict with the West escalated when Xi Jinping refused to condemn the war.

 

·         Given that China's relations with the United States will deteriorate in the long term, and China understands this, it is important for Beijing not to escalate relations, at least with the EU.

 

The war in Ukraine has also affected China's governance of Taiwan, which Beijing considers a breakaway province. Tensions in the region have risen steadily in recent months, with China conducting one of its largest naval and air exercises around Taiwan.

 

At the beginning of Russia's war in Ukraine, many experts worried that China would decide to take active steps against Taiwan. But now some analysts believe that China, seeing the united reaction of the West (especially the European Union) to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, will not dare to do so.

 

Chinese counterpart of Maria Zakharova

 

Analysts considered it significant that the former representative of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Zhao Lijian, who is often compared to the official representative of Russian diplomacy, Maria Zakharova, recently lost his position in China.

 

Like Zakharova, Zhao was known for her strong anti-Western rhetoric. In the past few years, China has often used techniques in the information field that were first used by Russia.

 

This is attributed to the transition of Zhao Lijian to another position - Beijing's neglect of an aggressive approach in international relations and transition to a softer course.

 

In addition, China recently abandoned its controversial "zero covid" policy and toned down the rhetoric about "common welfare" (social equality) to restore business confidence. Although Chinese state media continue to cover the war in Ukraine with a pro-Russian stance, experts agree that Beijing is no longer supporting Moscow as strongly.

 

Disappointed with Putin

 

After another meeting between Putin and Xi Jinping in December last year, the United States expressed concern about ties between Moscow and Beijing, saying there would be consequences for China if it decided to supply arms to Russia. "Beijing talks about its neutrality, but its behavior clearly shows that it is still invested in close relations with Russia," a State Department spokesman said at the time, vowing that the US would continue to monitor the situation closely.

 

No matter what China says, Russia has no alternative in this situation, believes expert Leonid Kovacic.

 

"In today's situation, China is Russia's only reliable trading partner and the only way to somehow support trade and receive income from this trade. Russia's dependence on China is growing," Kovacic says.

 

Turkey, with which Russia also maintains trade relations, cannot replace China, "if only because, even at the political level, China's antagonism towards the West is much closer to Russia than the position of Turkey, a NATO member," explains Leonid Kovacic. . "For Russia, this is not an alternative," he concludes.

 

The asymmetry of Russia-China relations has been noticeable for more than a year. In the public sphere, this is particularly evident in how parties support each other in times of crisis.

For example, in 2019, during the escalation of relations between Beijing and Washington, Putin openly supported China, referring to the US sanctions against the technology company Huawei as an economic war and an attempt to get rid of a powerful competitor.

 

China, on the other hand, rarely publicly supports the Kremlin, and more often speaks neutrally. This was the case in the discussion of the status of Crimea, in declarations of war in Donbas, and the poisoning of former GRU officer Sergei Skripal in Great Britain.

 

In November of last year, Xi Jinping indirectly criticized Vladimir Putin's threatening statements regarding Ukraine and called the "use or threat of nuclear weapons" unacceptable in a joint statement with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

 

More recently, according to the Financial Times, one Chinese official, who chose to remain anonymous, commented: "Putin is crazy. The decision to invade was made by a very small group of people. China should not follow Russia."

 

Journalists of the publication note that China is already well aware of the possibility that Russia will be defeated in Ukraine, and will be significantly weakened economically and diplomatically on the world stage.

 

Moreover, despite the publicity of mutual friendship, already some Chinese officials clearly express a certain mistrust towards Putin himself.