Classical
Geopolitical Schools and Eurasia – Key Concepts and Strategies
By: Jan Hernik
Dr. Vakhtang Maisaia
The term Geopolitics was introduced in 1916 by the
Swedish political scientist Rudolf Kjellén. In his eyes, it is the science of
the state as an organism functioning in geographical space. This phenomenon is
complex due to the fact that it deals with geography and politics. Geography
should be understood as nothing more than the reality of the Earth, which is
revealed by its topography, the distribution of continents, oceans, seas and
natural resources. Politics, in turn, is a phenomenon of exercising power, the
aim of which is to have a real impact on the surrounding material and
immaterial reality. The combination of these interpenetrating phenomena creates
a universal, but not the only definition of geopolitics, which is understood in
various ways by many scientists. Within this term, a naturally emerging
phenomenon also began to arise. It consists of the interpretation and answers
to geopolitical questions, which can be defined by the concept of geostrategy. It
is important to understand these phenomena in a joint and mutually
interpenetrating way.[1] The
strategy of the functioning of political entities on the world map is the
subject of research and a way to understand not only the present in
international relations, but above all an attempt to predict geopolitical
challenges in the future.
Eurasia occupies a key place in global geopolitics due
to the fact that it is the largest continental area on Earth, which extends
over the area of Europe and Asia.[2] To the west, the continent
is surrounded by the Atlantic Ocean, and to the east, it borders the waters of
the Pacific Ocean, where the archipelago of the Japanese Islands extends. Due
to its area (55 million km2)[3] and population (about 5.3
billion people)[4],
this collective continent has enormous economic, raw material and military
potential of the countries within its borders. The term Eurasia was
introduced in the nineteenth century to emphasize the close connection between
Asia and Europe, but the real meaning of this name was given by Sir Halford
Mackinder, who authored the concept of the Heartland, which in turn
inspired the creation of the counter theory of Rimland by Nicholas J.
Spykman. The importance of Eurasia was also emphasized by Zbigniew Brzezinski,
who indicated its key importance for the future position of the United States
in contemporary geopolitics. The US National Security Advisor during the
presidency of Jimmy Carter (1977–1981), previously adviser to presidents Lyndon
Johnson and John F. Kennedy, pointed out that control of Eurasia would
almost automatically entail subjugation of Africa, rendering the Western
Hemisphere and Oceania geopolitically peripheral to the world’s central
continent.[5]
Both the Americans and the leaders of all major countries aspiring to take
over hegemony in world politics must understand and participate in what is
happening in Eurasia today.
Organic State Theory - the behavior of states in the
international arena
Geopolitics
owes its origins to many geographers and political scientists. In order to
emphasize the original form of strategic reasoning in geopolitics, the theory
of the Organic State should be invoked. Its author is the German geographer
Friedrich Ratzel, who in 1897 stated that political entities behave in a manner
unchanged from living organisms. In his theory, state organisms need food, as
do living organisms in nature, and their action is to obtain the necessary
resources for survival by expanding their own territory and exercising
political power. This term was called Lebensraum and meant "living
space".[6]
In later years, this term was used by political leadership of the Third Reich
to conduct territorial expansion during World War II.
Ratzel's theory shows that every political organism,
in order to survive on the world map, must seek Lebensraum, which is the
guarantor of the political and civilization development of the state.
Otherwise, the political unit risks its own security and exposes itself to a
potential enemy attack. This reflects a state of nature where each individual
must hunt in order not only to satisfy their thirst, but to ensure their safety
by neutralizing potential enemies.
Heartland theory of land-power domination by Sir
Halford Mackinder
The first scientist to emphasize the importance of
Eurasia in geopolitics was Sir Halford Mackinder. He was one of the greatest
British geographers and one of the founders of geopolitical theory. In 1904, he
formulated his most famous theory of the Heartland (the heart of
Eurasia). He set it out in the article "The Geographical Pivot of
History", published by the Royal Geographical Society. The Heartland
is understood as the "World Island", which covered the area from the
Volga to the Yangtze and from the Himalayas to the Arctic. Mackinder's Heartland
was an area then ruled by the Russian Empire and then by the Soviet Union,
without the Kamchatka region, which is located in the easternmost part of
Russia, near the Aleutian Islands and the Kuril Islands. Mackinder concluded
his theory in the words:
Who rules East Europe commands the Heartland;
who rules the Heartland commands the World-Island;
who rules the World-Island commands the world.[7]
Outside the territory of the "world island"
Mackinder distinguished two other areas on the world map. In the first place,
they were offshore islands, which included the British Isles or the Japanese
Islands, while further he indicated outlying islands, such as, for example, the
countries in Oceania. In 1919, Sir Halford Mackinder expanded the territory of
the Heartland to include the Black Sea and Baltic Sea basins. This
concept took into account the area of Central and Eastern Europe.
Sir Halford Mackinder believed that the land powers
would become more important than the sea powers, thereby directly challenging
the doctrine of Alfred T. Mahan. The American naval officer believed that the
basis of the greatness and prosperity of the state was a maritime power of
fundamental economic importance. His conclusions are contained in the work "The
Influence of Sea Power Upon History". Mackinder in the other hand,
believed that consolidation of the monumental Eurasian continent would lead to the
world domination. Indeed, the debate over the superiority of Talassokratia
(sea power) versus Telurokratia (land power), or vice versa, has always
been a subject of contention in geopolitical debate.
Nicholas Spykman's theory - Rimland and domination of
sea powers
Contrary
to Mackinder, Spykman established his theory of geopolitical powers in the
early 1940s. In addition to the area defined by the British geographer, the
American political scientist introduced a new term - Rimland. He used
this term to describe what Mackinder in his theory called "offshore
islands" or "marginal crescent". In this way, Spykman
argued with Mackinder about the properties of the Heartland he described and
its superiority over sea areas. The new theory not only described the
overriding importance of a naval power in global geopolitics, but also
emphasized the need to surround the pivot area and prevent the expansion of
land powers to the marginal crescent. It was crucial to contain the Soviets. To
paraphrase Mackinder, Spykman's theory can be described as follows:
Who
controls the Rimland, controls Eurasia,
Who
rules Eurasia, controls the destinies of the world.
Spykman's reasoning resulted in the designation of new
regions on the geopolitical map of the world. He divided the zone surrounding
the Heartland into the following areas: European coast land,
Arabian-Middle Eastern desert land and Asiatic monsoon land. For this reason,
Spykman argued that Rimland is home to the greatest masses of human
beings, but also to deposits of natural resources. In this sense, Rimland
is situated between the Hearland land power and the marginal (in
Spykman's time) maritime areas. In his theory, he also highlighted the concept
of buffer zones that separated Talassokratia from Telurokratia.[8]
Zbigniew Brzezinski's strategy in Eurasia
A comprehensive understanding and application of the
theories developed by Mahan, Mackinder and Spykman can be found in the doctrine
of Zbigniew Brzezinski, which was described in his monograph entitled “The
Grand Chessboard.” When analyzing his work, it is worth pointing out that
Brzezinski took the claim from Mahan that the basis of the state's power was
the navy and coastal control.[9] From Mackinder's theory,
Brzezinski drew the conclusion that the era of maritime powers had passed for
the Heartland, which consists of the areas of Central and Eastern Asia,
to which the areas of Central and Eastern Europe are the key entrance.[10] From Spykman, he made the
observation that Rimland is the most important - the coast of Eurasia.
They constitute a buffer between the land and sea powers.[11]
The aforementioned Heartland buffer zone was
particularly important to Brzezinski and was reflected in the doctrine of
President Jimmy Carter from 1979. Presented at the State of the Union Address
in January 1980, the theory was that the United States would use military
force, if necessary, to defend its national interests in the Persian Gulf. It
was a response to the Soviet Union's intervention in Afghanistan in 1979, and
it was intended to deter the Soviet Union, the United States' Cold War
adversary, from seeking hegemony in the Persian Gulf region. The Middle East,
part of Eurasia, became the territory of real power rivalry, where the United
States decided to defend its interests.[12]
The approach to US foreign policy in Eurasia is
characterized by interventionism, especially during the terms of office of
presidents representing the Democratic Party. One of the precursors of the
approach that was later captured by Brzezinski was the US Secretary of State in
the administration of J.F. Kennedy and Lyndon B. Johnson - Robert McNamara. He
developed a theory of small-scale warfare far from US borders and conducted
with conventional weapons. The phenomenon of interventionism in Eurasia was
visible not only in the Middle East, but also, according to Mackinder's theory,
is observed in Central and Eastern Europe.
Battle for the Heartland, who will dominate Eurasia in
the 21st century? Examples of powers' activity in the region of
Central and Eastern Europe
According
to Mackinder, the key to influencing the entire Heartland is the control
of Central and Eastern Europe. In contemporary geopolitics, it is of
exceptional importance, as this place is a direct sales market and an area of
entry to Western Europe and the United States. From the perspective of the Heartland
power, the Russian Federation, it is a crucial energy market. Approaching this
place through the eyes of the People's Republic of China, a power of Eurasia,
it is worth pointing out the One Belt, One Road Initiative. In Central and
Eastern Europe, the United States also wants to defend its interests, whose
presence in this region is multifaceted and consists of both economic presence
and direct military relations.
The Russian Federation has a wide range of influence
in Eurasia, especially in the area of Heartaland. This influence results
from the legacy of the Soviet Union, but also from contemporary economic,
energy and military dependencies. Economically, the Russian Federation represents
the 11th largest economy in the world with an annual GDP of $1.78 trillion in
2021.[13] Russian export goods
include: crude oil, natural gas, iron and other metal ores, wood and wooden
products, hard coal, agricultural products, chemical products, steel and iron,
weapons, machinery. Main export directions in 2014 were: the Netherlands 13.7%,
China 7.5%, Germany 7.5%, Italy 7.2%, Turkey 5%. Main import partners of the
Russian Federation are: China 17.8%, Germany 11.5%, United States 6.6%, Italy
4.5%, Belarus 4.1%. In 2014, the value of exports (USD 520.3 billion) was over
1.6 times higher than imports (USD 323.9 billion).[14]
The main instrument of control of the Russian
Federation over the countries of Central and Eastern Europe, i.e. the territory
critical for Mackinder's theory, are natural energy resource supplies. European
countries import gas from several areas and directions. The main one is the
Russian Federation with the result of 124.28 billion m3/year, and the total
import of gas to European countries in 2007 amounted to 311.11 billion m3.[15] By distributing natural
resources to European markets, the Russian Federation exerts a direct influence
on the condition of the economies of European countries, and thus on partial
control of political decisions made in Europe. Central and Eastern Europe
(including Bulgaria, Germany, Hungary and Slovakia) is particularly dependent
on Russian supplies, as it draws over 50% of all resources from Russia.[16] Due to such a high degree
of dependence of some countries on Russia, one can see a visible shift towards
Russian interests in their policy. Examples include influence on Hungary’s
foreign policy during the war in Ukraine which broke out in February 2022.
During the war between the Russian Federation and
Ukraine, Hungary visibly differs from the reaction of Western countries due to
its very high dependence on energy resources from Russia. The new gas agreement
signed in 2021 has made the government of Viktor Orban dependent on Russia to
such an extent that it de facto prevents most methods of diversifying energy
resources in the coming years.[17] As for 2022, Hungary is getting around 80 percent of its gas from
Gazprom.[18]
In this way, the Russian Federation, through energy blackmail, influences some
of the decisions expected by the Western allies to be made by Hungary during
the war in Ukraine. This includes, among other things, opposition to any EU
sanctions on Russian gas or delaying of consent to the enlargement of the North
Atlantic Treaty Organization, thus weakening of the Western countries in the
confrontation against the eastern enemy. The example of Hungary illustrates the
indirect activity of the Russian Federation's foreign policy in Central and
Eastern Europe in order to influence governments and decisions made at the
political level in the updated (by
Mackinder) in 1919 “Pivot area” of the Heartland. Due to Russia's
limited possibilities in terms of direct power projection on Central and
Eastern European countries, Moscow is pursuing a policy of dependence in order
to gain more and more influence in this region to make it work for its foreign
policy goals, thus approach to apply part of the Mackinder’s theory. The war in
Ukraine and the so far unsuccessful attempt to exert a kinetic influence on the
takeover of power in Ukraine are evidence of the aspirations of the Putin
regime to apply Mackinder's theory, and thus to control the Heartland by
influencing the expanded zone of Eastern Europe.
The gateway to Eurasia and the entire connected
continent also became a place of economic expansion for the People's Republic
of China. China's economic development has accelerated significantly over the
past 40 years. The turning point was the moment when this country obtained
observer status in the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) in 1986
and in 2001 joined this organization, just like the World Trade Organization
(WTO). Accession meant that China would engage in global competition, marking
the beginning of commitment towards financial multilateralism. After
many stages of entering the global economy, in 2013 China began implementing
the reactivated Silk Road, which is called the One Belt One Road Initiative. It
is undoubtedly one of the largest sources of investment in the world. The total
value of its financing in the years 2014-2020 exceeded USD 104.7 billion, with
an annual average (CAGR) of USD 14.96 billion.[19] The project serves
China's economic and political expansion in Eurasia and Africa, i.e. the
territory of Mackinder's Heartland. Chinese attempts to exert direct
influence on the Heartland, due to the significant distance to Eastern
Europe and the priorities of the Chinese People's Liberation Army in the
Pacific region, take on the dimension of increasing economic interference.
The main theater of operations for this project is
Eurasia, with particular emphasis on the strategic pivot, which in this project
is Central and Eastern Europe, which is to open the gate for Chinese goods,
therefore economic capabilities, to the
West. Together with the goods sent via the route that runs through Russia,
Belarus and Poland, the People's Republic of China offers its technology,
knowledge and people to selected countries. The plan also provides for
low-interest loans for the improvement and development of railway
infrastructure. The volume of transshipment of rail transport (in TEU) from
2014 to 2018 increased more than 10 times on the China-Europe route, and 90% of
these cargoes are reloaded in Poland.[20] Imports from China to the
European Union in 2021 reached a record amount of EUR 472 billion. This value
is twice as high as exports from Europe to China. Imports from China have
increased significantly in recent years, and Chinese external investment in the
EU has significantly exceeded its internal spending.[21] It is worth pointing out
that the EU's broad objections to trade with China include the lack of
transparency, discrimination against foreign partners, the strong influence of
state-owned companies in the positioning of international trade, and
significant violations of intellectual property rights.[22] This may lead to
legitimate concerns about the security and intentions of the People's Republic
of China regarding trade relations with European countries. The EU's trade
deficit with China may indicate deliberate actions aimed at gradually making
this key region dependent on China's constantly expanding supply chain. In this
way, China is building its economic and political presence in Central and
Eastern Europe, which, as Beijing understands, is also the key to spreading
dominance over the entire territory of the Heartland. The constantly
growing economic presence in this part of the world may, in the long run, give
rise to a potential threat regarding, for example, China's deliberate
interference in the established supply chains, therefore influencing political
and commercial decisions.
The United States has the widest spectrum of control
of the Central and Eastern Europe zone, and thus the Heartland. The
American presence in this area of the world is confirmed not only by a strong
economic position, but also by a direct military force stationed throughout
Europe, also on NATO's eastern flank.
Trade relations of the United States with the European
Union, and thus also collectively with some countries that are of strategic
importance for Mackinder's concept, such as Poland (one of the biggest states
of the Central-Eastern Europe), are among the best in the world. The European
Union and the United States have the largest bilateral trade and investment
relationship and enjoy the most integrated economic relationship in the world.
Although overtaken by China in 2020 as the largest trading partner specifically
for goods, when services and investment are taken into account, the US remains
the EU’s largest trading partner by far. The transatlantic relationship is a key artery of the
world economy. Either the EU or the US is the largest trade and investment
partner of almost every other country in the global economy. Taken together,
the economies of both territories account for one third of global trade in
goods and services and close to one third of world GDP in terms of purchasing
power.[23]
Looking only at selected countries of Central and
Eastern Europe, one can clearly see how extensive the economic presence of the
United States is in this region. This phenomenon can be understood by looking
at the value of trade relations with the US from countries such as Poland,
Lithuania, Romania, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Ukraine. For years after
the final collapse of communism during the Fall of Nations of 1989, the United
States gradually but steadily strengthened its economic involvement in the
economies of each of these countries. It is worth noting that in some cases
(the case of Poland) they also significantly opened their markets to products
from Central and Eastern Europe. It should be pointed out that the main objects
of imports from the United States to the countries specified above are higher
technologies, service and military equipment.
While examining the US influence in the region of
Eastern Europe, reaching out to a specific example of a country with a rising
multidimensional presence of the United States is necessary. In the category of
imported services, Poland allocates the most space to financial services. This
accounts for almost 20% of all services imported from the US (which amounts to
nearly 50% of all trade relations).[24] Military equipment also
plays a large role in the value of imports. Only in 2022, Poland declared the
purchase of military equipment worth PLN 100 billion, most of which comes from
trade relations with the United States or its close allies.
Poland is also an excellent example of how the United
States is trying to dislodge Russian influence from Central and Eastern Europe.
As an example of this, it is worth pointing to the progressing process of
energy independence of the region after the armed invasion of Ukraine by the
Russian Federation. In 2018-2020, 80% of natural gas in Poland came from
foreign supplies. According to the Supreme Audit Office, in 2020, approx. 18
bcm of gas went to Poland, of which 9.8 bcm from Russia.[25] This meant that most of
Poland's energy supply was delivered via the Yamal gas pipeline. With the
growing influence of the United States in the region, with the increased number
of American troops in the region, and the war-enforced US interference in the
transit of military equipment and humanitarian aid through Poland to Ukraine,
Poland, with significant US support, finally and definitely displaced its
dependence on Russian gas in 2022.
Energy diversification meant not only the use of
alternative sources of gas flowing through the Baltic Pipe, which connects
Norway, Denmark and Poland, but also the construction of bilateral relations in
this regard with Lithuania and Slovakia. This is one of the ways in which the
importance of mutual energy relations between Poland and the United States
spreads and is felt throughout the region. However, a significant step towards
introducing American interests to Central and Eastern Europe and displacing
Russian influence was the opening of the LNG gasport in Świnoujście in 2015.
Opening up to the supply of American raw material has
significantly brought the region's interests closer to the Western hegemon and
bound it. This applies not only to Poland, but to the entire European Union.
Since the start of the war in Ukraine and the imposition of further sanctions
against the regime of Vladimir Putin, supplies of Russian gas have
significantly decreased. At the beginning of 2022, almost 30% of gas imported
to the EU came from Russia. In August that year, that number was already 17%. Instead,
the amount of LNG imported mainly from the United States or Qatar is increasing
in the European energy mix.[26] Year on year, from June
2021 to June 2022, the volume of LNG deliveries from the US to Europe increased
from 1,161 million cubic meters to 4,131 million cubic meters in June 2022.[27] It is clear that it is
Washington that sees its chance to increase bilateral engagement with European
countries that, moving away from raw materials from the east, turn more towards
supplies from the west or Arab states. Poland is one of the examples of
countries that are deepening their relations with the US, thereby diverting
attempts by the Russian Federation or the People's Republic of China to exert
influence in the region.
Such strong trade relations are also based on
constantly deepening military and allied ties. According to the latest data,
the presence of American soldiers in the countries of Central and Eastern
Europe increased after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. In total, there are currently
about 100,000 US troops in Europe. Looking west, the main concentration centers
of the US armed forces in Central and Eastern Europe are Poland (about 1,700
American soldiers are stationed) and Romania (1,134).[28] This does not mean that
the other countries in the region are not open to the influence of the United
States, as there is an increased presence of NATO forces there. The war in
Ukraine meant that the countries of NATO's eastern flank significantly
strengthened their ties with the alliance. In fact, the war has made the
Eastern European region bordering the Russian Federation and part of NATO
likely to expand even further. The infographic released by NATO shows that on
March 16, on the eastern flank of NATO, there were 40,000 soldiers under the
direct command of the Alliance, 130 Allied aircraft on high alert and 140
Allied ships at sea., not counting the local armed forces in each of these
countries.[29]
In terms of the military and the assessment of the
military influence of the United States in the region crucial for Mackinder's
thesis, attention should also be paid to Ukraine. Since the start of the war in
February 2022, the United States has provided aid worth nearly €50 billion to
Kiev, including advanced military equipment worth over €22 billion.[30] American equipment, the
presence of American soldiers from the 82nd Airborne Division in Poland have
become a key tool for American control over the conduct of the conflict with
the Russian Federation in Ukraine. The direct presence of American equipment in
military operations, such as: MIM-104 Patriot, M142 HIMARS, FIM-92 Stingers, is
to help in this.
Countries in the region of danger will also be
supplied with American equipment, Poland with, for example, F-35 fighter jets,
Abrams SEPv3 tanks, or the Patriot missile system. Other countries are
following in the footsteps of their neighbor, such as Slovakia with a plan to
purchase F-16 fighters or Lithuania buying HIMARS systems. The United States
completely dominated the armaments market of Central and Eastern European
countries.
In conclusion, it should be noted that both the
Russian Federation, the People's Republic of China and the United States
perfectly understand the strategic importance of the Central and Eastern
European region in the broader perspective of the race of superpowers.
Mackinder's theory is alive and present in the foreign policy of each of these
countries, but each of them, due to factors resulting from the geographical
location, military and logistic potential, tries to influence this region in a
slightly different way.
The Russian Federation, using its own natural
resources, tried to subordinate the decision-making process of certain
countries of Central and Eastern Europe, as well as the European Union, to
itself as much as possible. Through the concept of the new Silk Road and the
One Belt One Road initiative, China is trying to pursue its foreign policy
interests through trade and economic tools, which at the same time allow
Beijing to develop logistics to this region of the world. The greatest
influence here, however, is exerted by the United States, which dominates a
significant part of the European market, the arms industry and the military area
through its direct presence in Central and Eastern Europe and sending military
equipment to Ukraine, which is fighting against the regime of Vladimir Putin. The
United States has the most comprehensive toolset for direct power projection
and economic negotiation in the region. It should be noted that an additional
tool in the direct implementation of US foreign policy is also NATO, which is
constantly strengthening its presence on the eastern flank of the alliance.
In the region of Central and Eastern Europe, there is
a constant struggle between the biggest players in the international arena over
who will control this area. After analyzing the publicly available information
and understanding that control can be exerted in many different ways, it is
certain that Mackinder's Theory of Heartland is constantly being
implemented. During the war in Ukraine, it can be noticed that apart from
Mackinder's idea, the Russian Federation also implements Ratzel's theory by
striving to dominate the militarily and economically weaker state of the region
in order to expand Russian Lebensraum. In the future, it should be
expected that the area of Central and Eastern Europe, along with the tensions
in the Indo-Pacific, will be one of the key regions where the situation will
dictate the further distribution of power in the world.
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