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Classical Geopolitical Schools and Eurasia – Key Concepts and Strategies

 

Classical Geopolitical Schools and Eurasia – Key Concepts and Strategies



By:  Jan Hernik                                                                                                                    

        Dr. Vakhtang Maisaia


The term Geopolitics was introduced in 1916 by the Swedish political scientist Rudolf Kjellén. In his eyes, it is the science of the state as an organism functioning in geographical space. This phenomenon is complex due to the fact that it deals with geography and politics. Geography should be understood as nothing more than the reality of the Earth, which is revealed by its topography, the distribution of continents, oceans, seas and natural resources. Politics, in turn, is a phenomenon of exercising power, the aim of which is to have a real impact on the surrounding material and immaterial reality. The combination of these interpenetrating phenomena creates a universal, but not the only definition of geopolitics, which is understood in various ways by many scientists. Within this term, a naturally emerging phenomenon also began to arise. It consists of the interpretation and answers to geopolitical questions, which can be defined by the concept of geostrategy. It is important to understand these phenomena in a joint and mutually interpenetrating way.[1] The strategy of the functioning of political entities on the world map is the subject of research and a way to understand not only the present in international relations, but above all an attempt to predict geopolitical challenges in the future.

Eurasia occupies a key place in global geopolitics due to the fact that it is the largest continental area on Earth, which extends over the area of Europe and Asia.[2] To the west, the continent is surrounded by the Atlantic Ocean, and to the east, it borders the waters of the Pacific Ocean, where the archipelago of the Japanese Islands extends. Due to its area (55 million km2)[3] and population (about 5.3 billion people)[4], this collective continent has enormous economic, raw material and military potential of the countries within its borders. The term Eurasia was introduced in the nineteenth century to emphasize the close connection between Asia and Europe, but the real meaning of this name was given by Sir Halford Mackinder, who authored the concept of the Heartland, which in turn inspired the creation of the counter theory of Rimland by Nicholas J. Spykman. The importance of Eurasia was also emphasized by Zbigniew Brzezinski, who indicated its key importance for the future position of the United States in contemporary geopolitics. The US National Security Advisor during the presidency of Jimmy Carter (1977–1981), previously adviser to presidents Lyndon Johnson and John F. Kennedy, pointed out that control of Eurasia would almost automatically entail subjugation of Africa, rendering the Western Hemisphere and Oceania geopolitically peripheral to the world’s central continent.[5] Both the Americans and the leaders of all major countries aspiring to take over hegemony in world politics must understand and participate in what is happening in Eurasia today.  

Organic State Theory - the behavior of states in the international arena

            Geopolitics owes its origins to many geographers and political scientists. In order to emphasize the original form of strategic reasoning in geopolitics, the theory of the Organic State should be invoked. Its author is the German geographer Friedrich Ratzel, who in 1897 stated that political entities behave in a manner unchanged from living organisms. In his theory, state organisms need food, as do living organisms in nature, and their action is to obtain the necessary resources for survival by expanding their own territory and exercising political power. This term was called Lebensraum and meant "living space".[6] In later years, this term was used by political leadership of the Third Reich to conduct territorial expansion during World War II.

Ratzel's theory shows that every political organism, in order to survive on the world map, must seek Lebensraum, which is the guarantor of the political and civilization development of the state. Otherwise, the political unit risks its own security and exposes itself to a potential enemy attack. This reflects a state of nature where each individual must hunt in order not only to satisfy their thirst, but to ensure their safety by neutralizing potential enemies.

Heartland theory of land-power domination by Sir Halford Mackinder

The first scientist to emphasize the importance of Eurasia in geopolitics was Sir Halford Mackinder. He was one of the greatest British geographers and one of the founders of geopolitical theory. In 1904, he formulated his most famous theory of the Heartland (the heart of Eurasia). He set it out in the article "The Geographical Pivot of History", published by the Royal Geographical Society. The Heartland is understood as the "World Island", which covered the area from the Volga to the Yangtze and from the Himalayas to the Arctic. Mackinder's Heartland was an area then ruled by the Russian Empire and then by the Soviet Union, without the Kamchatka region, which is located in the easternmost part of Russia, near the Aleutian Islands and the Kuril Islands. Mackinder concluded his theory in the words:

Who rules East Europe commands the Heartland;

who rules the Heartland commands the World-Island;

who rules the World-Island commands the world.[7]

Outside the territory of the "world island" Mackinder distinguished two other areas on the world map. In the first place, they were offshore islands, which included the British Isles or the Japanese Islands, while further he indicated outlying islands, such as, for example, the countries in Oceania. In 1919, Sir Halford Mackinder expanded the territory of the Heartland to include the Black Sea and Baltic Sea basins. This concept took into account the area of Central and Eastern Europe.

Sir Halford Mackinder believed that the land powers would become more important than the sea powers, thereby directly challenging the doctrine of Alfred T. Mahan. The American naval officer believed that the basis of the greatness and prosperity of the state was a maritime power of fundamental economic importance. His conclusions are contained in the work "The Influence of Sea Power Upon History". Mackinder in the other hand, believed that consolidation of the monumental Eurasian continent would lead to the world domination. Indeed, the debate over the superiority of Talassokratia (sea power) versus Telurokratia (land power), or vice versa, has always been a subject of contention in geopolitical debate.

Nicholas Spykman's theory - Rimland and domination of sea powers

            Contrary to Mackinder, Spykman established his theory of geopolitical powers in the early 1940s. In addition to the area defined by the British geographer, the American political scientist introduced a new term - Rimland. He used this term to describe what Mackinder in his theory called "offshore islands" or "marginal crescent". In this way, Spykman argued with Mackinder about the properties of the Heartland he described and its superiority over sea areas. The new theory not only described the overriding importance of a naval power in global geopolitics, but also emphasized the need to surround the pivot area and prevent the expansion of land powers to the marginal crescent. It was crucial to contain the Soviets. To paraphrase Mackinder, Spykman's theory can be described as follows:

            Who controls the Rimland, controls Eurasia,

            Who rules Eurasia, controls the destinies of the world.

Spykman's reasoning resulted in the designation of new regions on the geopolitical map of the world. He divided the zone surrounding the Heartland into the following areas: European coast land, Arabian-Middle Eastern desert land and Asiatic monsoon land. For this reason, Spykman argued that Rimland is home to the greatest masses of human beings, but also to deposits of natural resources. In this sense, Rimland is situated between the Hearland land power and the marginal (in Spykman's time) maritime areas. In his theory, he also highlighted the concept of buffer zones that separated Talassokratia from Telurokratia.[8]

Zbigniew Brzezinski's strategy in Eurasia

            A comprehensive understanding and application of the theories developed by Mahan, Mackinder and Spykman can be found in the doctrine of Zbigniew Brzezinski, which was described in his monograph entitled “The Grand Chessboard.” When analyzing his work, it is worth pointing out that Brzezinski took the claim from Mahan that the basis of the state's power was the navy and coastal control.[9] From Mackinder's theory, Brzezinski drew the conclusion that the era of maritime powers had passed for the Heartland, which consists of the areas of Central and Eastern Asia, to which the areas of Central and Eastern Europe are the key entrance.[10] From Spykman, he made the observation that Rimland is the most important - the coast of Eurasia. They constitute a buffer between the land and sea powers.[11]

The aforementioned Heartland buffer zone was particularly important to Brzezinski and was reflected in the doctrine of President Jimmy Carter from 1979. Presented at the State of the Union Address in January 1980, the theory was that the United States would use military force, if necessary, to defend its national interests in the Persian Gulf. It was a response to the Soviet Union's intervention in Afghanistan in 1979, and it was intended to deter the Soviet Union, the United States' Cold War adversary, from seeking hegemony in the Persian Gulf region. The Middle East, part of Eurasia, became the territory of real power rivalry, where the United States decided to defend its interests.[12]

The approach to US foreign policy in Eurasia is characterized by interventionism, especially during the terms of office of presidents representing the Democratic Party. One of the precursors of the approach that was later captured by Brzezinski was the US Secretary of State in the administration of J.F. Kennedy and Lyndon B. Johnson - Robert McNamara. He developed a theory of small-scale warfare far from US borders and conducted with conventional weapons. The phenomenon of interventionism in Eurasia was visible not only in the Middle East, but also, according to Mackinder's theory, is observed in Central and Eastern Europe.

Battle for the Heartland, who will dominate Eurasia in the 21st century? Examples of powers' activity in the region of Central and Eastern Europe

            According to Mackinder, the key to influencing the entire Heartland is the control of Central and Eastern Europe. In contemporary geopolitics, it is of exceptional importance, as this place is a direct sales market and an area of entry to Western Europe and the United States. From the perspective of the Heartland power, the Russian Federation, it is a crucial energy market. Approaching this place through the eyes of the People's Republic of China, a power of Eurasia, it is worth pointing out the One Belt, One Road Initiative. In Central and Eastern Europe, the United States also wants to defend its interests, whose presence in this region is multifaceted and consists of both economic presence and direct military relations.

The Russian Federation has a wide range of influence in Eurasia, especially in the area of Heartaland. This influence results from the legacy of the Soviet Union, but also from contemporary economic, energy and military dependencies. Economically, the Russian Federation represents the 11th largest economy in the world with an annual GDP of $1.78 trillion in 2021.[13] Russian export goods include: crude oil, natural gas, iron and other metal ores, wood and wooden products, hard coal, agricultural products, chemical products, steel and iron, weapons, machinery. Main export directions in 2014 were: the Netherlands 13.7%, China 7.5%, Germany 7.5%, Italy 7.2%, Turkey 5%. Main import partners of the Russian Federation are: China 17.8%, Germany 11.5%, United States 6.6%, Italy 4.5%, Belarus 4.1%. In 2014, the value of exports (USD 520.3 billion) was over 1.6 times higher than imports (USD 323.9 billion).[14]

The main instrument of control of the Russian Federation over the countries of Central and Eastern Europe, i.e. the territory critical for Mackinder's theory, are natural energy resource supplies. European countries import gas from several areas and directions. The main one is the Russian Federation with the result of 124.28 billion m3/year, and the total import of gas to European countries in 2007 amounted to 311.11 billion m3.[15] By distributing natural resources to European markets, the Russian Federation exerts a direct influence on the condition of the economies of European countries, and thus on partial control of political decisions made in Europe. Central and Eastern Europe (including Bulgaria, Germany, Hungary and Slovakia) is particularly dependent on Russian supplies, as it draws over 50% of all resources from Russia.[16] Due to such a high degree of dependence of some countries on Russia, one can see a visible shift towards Russian interests in their policy. Examples include influence on Hungary’s foreign policy during the war in Ukraine which broke out in February 2022.

During the war between the Russian Federation and Ukraine, Hungary visibly differs from the reaction of Western countries due to its very high dependence on energy resources from Russia. The new gas agreement signed in 2021 has made the government of Viktor Orban dependent on Russia to such an extent that it de facto prevents most methods of diversifying energy resources in the coming years.[17] As for 2022, Hungary is  getting around 80 percent of its gas from Gazprom.[18] In this way, the Russian Federation, through energy blackmail, influences some of the decisions expected by the Western allies to be made by Hungary during the war in Ukraine. This includes, among other things, opposition to any EU sanctions on Russian gas or delaying of consent to the enlargement of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, thus weakening of the Western countries in the confrontation against the eastern enemy. The example of Hungary illustrates the indirect activity of the Russian Federation's foreign policy in Central and Eastern Europe in order to influence governments and decisions made at the political level in  the updated (by Mackinder) in 1919 “Pivot area” of the Heartland. Due to Russia's limited possibilities in terms of direct power projection on Central and Eastern European countries, Moscow is pursuing a policy of dependence in order to gain more and more influence in this region to make it work for its foreign policy goals, thus approach to apply part of the Mackinder’s theory. The war in Ukraine and the so far unsuccessful attempt to exert a kinetic influence on the takeover of power in Ukraine are evidence of the aspirations of the Putin regime to apply Mackinder's theory, and thus to control the Heartland by influencing the expanded zone of Eastern Europe.

The gateway to Eurasia and the entire connected continent also became a place of economic expansion for the People's Republic of China. China's economic development has accelerated significantly over the past 40 years. The turning point was the moment when this country obtained observer status in the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) in 1986 and in 2001 joined this organization, just like the World Trade Organization (WTO). Accession meant that China would engage in global competition, marking the beginning of commitment towards financial multilateralism. After many stages of entering the global economy, in 2013 China began implementing the reactivated Silk Road, which is called the One Belt One Road Initiative. It is undoubtedly one of the largest sources of investment in the world. The total value of its financing in the years 2014-2020 exceeded USD 104.7 billion, with an annual average (CAGR) of USD 14.96 billion.[19] The project serves China's economic and political expansion in Eurasia and Africa, i.e. the territory of Mackinder's Heartland. Chinese attempts to exert direct influence on the Heartland, due to the significant distance to Eastern Europe and the priorities of the Chinese People's Liberation Army in the Pacific region, take on the dimension of increasing economic interference.

The main theater of operations for this project is Eurasia, with particular emphasis on the strategic pivot, which in this project is Central and Eastern Europe, which is to open the gate for Chinese goods, therefore economic capabilities,  to the West. Together with the goods sent via the route that runs through Russia, Belarus and Poland, the People's Republic of China offers its technology, knowledge and people to selected countries. The plan also provides for low-interest loans for the improvement and development of railway infrastructure. The volume of transshipment of rail transport (in TEU) from 2014 to 2018 increased more than 10 times on the China-Europe route, and 90% of these cargoes are reloaded in Poland.[20] Imports from China to the European Union in 2021 reached a record amount of EUR 472 billion. This value is twice as high as exports from Europe to China. Imports from China have increased significantly in recent years, and Chinese external investment in the EU has significantly exceeded its internal spending.[21] It is worth pointing out that the EU's broad objections to trade with China include the lack of transparency, discrimination against foreign partners, the strong influence of state-owned companies in the positioning of international trade, and significant violations of intellectual property rights.[22] This may lead to legitimate concerns about the security and intentions of the People's Republic of China regarding trade relations with European countries. The EU's trade deficit with China may indicate deliberate actions aimed at gradually making this key region dependent on China's constantly expanding supply chain. In this way, China is building its economic and political presence in Central and Eastern Europe, which, as Beijing understands, is also the key to spreading dominance over the entire territory of the Heartland. The constantly growing economic presence in this part of the world may, in the long run, give rise to a potential threat regarding, for example, China's deliberate interference in the established supply chains, therefore influencing political and commercial decisions.

The United States has the widest spectrum of control of the Central and Eastern Europe zone, and thus the Heartland. The American presence in this area of the world is confirmed not only by a strong economic position, but also by a direct military force stationed throughout Europe, also on NATO's eastern flank.

Trade relations of the United States with the European Union, and thus also collectively with some countries that are of strategic importance for Mackinder's concept, such as Poland (one of the biggest states of the Central-Eastern Europe), are among the best in the world. The European Union and the United States have the largest bilateral trade and investment relationship and enjoy the most integrated economic relationship in the world. Although overtaken by China in 2020 as the largest trading partner specifically for goods, when services and investment are taken into account, the US remains the EU’s largest trading partner by far. The transatlantic relationship is a key artery of the world economy. Either the EU or the US is the largest trade and investment partner of almost every other country in the global economy. Taken together, the economies of both territories account for one third of global trade in goods and services and close to one third of world GDP in terms of purchasing power.[23]

Looking only at selected countries of Central and Eastern Europe, one can clearly see how extensive the economic presence of the United States is in this region. This phenomenon can be understood by looking at the value of trade relations with the US from countries such as Poland, Lithuania, Romania, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Ukraine. For years after the final collapse of communism during the Fall of Nations of 1989, the United States gradually but steadily strengthened its economic involvement in the economies of each of these countries. It is worth noting that in some cases (the case of Poland) they also significantly opened their markets to products from Central and Eastern Europe. It should be pointed out that the main objects of imports from the United States to the countries specified above are higher technologies, service and military equipment.

While examining the US influence in the region of Eastern Europe, reaching out to a specific example of a country with a rising multidimensional presence of the United States is necessary. In the category of imported services, Poland allocates the most space to financial services. This accounts for almost 20% of all services imported from the US (which amounts to nearly 50% of all trade relations).[24] Military equipment also plays a large role in the value of imports. Only in 2022, Poland declared the purchase of military equipment worth PLN 100 billion, most of which comes from trade relations with the United States or its close allies.

Poland is also an excellent example of how the United States is trying to dislodge Russian influence from Central and Eastern Europe. As an example of this, it is worth pointing to the progressing process of energy independence of the region after the armed invasion of Ukraine by the Russian Federation. In 2018-2020, 80% of natural gas in Poland came from foreign supplies. According to the Supreme Audit Office, in 2020, approx. 18 bcm of gas went to Poland, of which 9.8 bcm from Russia.[25] This meant that most of Poland's energy supply was delivered via the Yamal gas pipeline. With the growing influence of the United States in the region, with the increased number of American troops in the region, and the war-enforced US interference in the transit of military equipment and humanitarian aid through Poland to Ukraine, Poland, with significant US support, finally and definitely displaced its dependence on Russian gas in 2022.

Energy diversification meant not only the use of alternative sources of gas flowing through the Baltic Pipe, which connects Norway, Denmark and Poland, but also the construction of bilateral relations in this regard with Lithuania and Slovakia. This is one of the ways in which the importance of mutual energy relations between Poland and the United States spreads and is felt throughout the region. However, a significant step towards introducing American interests to Central and Eastern Europe and displacing Russian influence was the opening of the LNG gasport in Świnoujście in 2015.

Opening up to the supply of American raw material has significantly brought the region's interests closer to the Western hegemon and bound it. This applies not only to Poland, but to the entire European Union. Since the start of the war in Ukraine and the imposition of further sanctions against the regime of Vladimir Putin, supplies of Russian gas have significantly decreased. At the beginning of 2022, almost 30% of gas imported to the EU came from Russia. In August that year, that number was already 17%. Instead, the amount of LNG imported mainly from the United States or Qatar is increasing in the European energy mix.[26] Year on year, from June 2021 to June 2022, the volume of LNG deliveries from the US to Europe increased from 1,161 million cubic meters to 4,131 million cubic meters in June 2022.[27] It is clear that it is Washington that sees its chance to increase bilateral engagement with European countries that, moving away from raw materials from the east, turn more towards supplies from the west or Arab states. Poland is one of the examples of countries that are deepening their relations with the US, thereby diverting attempts by the Russian Federation or the People's Republic of China to exert influence in the region.

Such strong trade relations are also based on constantly deepening military and allied ties. According to the latest data, the presence of American soldiers in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe increased after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. In total, there are currently about 100,000 US troops in Europe. Looking west, the main concentration centers of the US armed forces in Central and Eastern Europe are Poland (about 1,700 American soldiers are stationed) and Romania (1,134).[28] This does not mean that the other countries in the region are not open to the influence of the United States, as there is an increased presence of NATO forces there. The war in Ukraine meant that the countries of NATO's eastern flank significantly strengthened their ties with the alliance. In fact, the war has made the Eastern European region bordering the Russian Federation and part of NATO likely to expand even further. The infographic released by NATO shows that on March 16, on the eastern flank of NATO, there were 40,000 soldiers under the direct command of the Alliance, 130 Allied aircraft on high alert and 140 Allied ships at sea., not counting the local armed forces in each of these countries.[29]

In terms of the military and the assessment of the military influence of the United States in the region crucial for Mackinder's thesis, attention should also be paid to Ukraine. Since the start of the war in February 2022, the United States has provided aid worth nearly €50 billion to Kiev, including advanced military equipment worth over €22 billion.[30] American equipment, the presence of American soldiers from the 82nd Airborne Division in Poland have become a key tool for American control over the conduct of the conflict with the Russian Federation in Ukraine. The direct presence of American equipment in military operations, such as: MIM-104 Patriot, M142 HIMARS, FIM-92 Stingers, is to help in this.

Countries in the region of danger will also be supplied with American equipment, Poland with, for example, F-35 fighter jets, Abrams SEPv3 tanks, or the Patriot missile system. Other countries are following in the footsteps of their neighbor, such as Slovakia with a plan to purchase F-16 fighters or Lithuania buying HIMARS systems. The United States completely dominated the armaments market of Central and Eastern European countries.

In conclusion, it should be noted that both the Russian Federation, the People's Republic of China and the United States perfectly understand the strategic importance of the Central and Eastern European region in the broader perspective of the race of superpowers. Mackinder's theory is alive and present in the foreign policy of each of these countries, but each of them, due to factors resulting from the geographical location, military and logistic potential, tries to influence this region in a slightly different way.

The Russian Federation, using its own natural resources, tried to subordinate the decision-making process of certain countries of Central and Eastern Europe, as well as the European Union, to itself as much as possible. Through the concept of the new Silk Road and the One Belt One Road initiative, China is trying to pursue its foreign policy interests through trade and economic tools, which at the same time allow Beijing to develop logistics to this region of the world. The greatest influence here, however, is exerted by the United States, which dominates a significant part of the European market, the arms industry and the military area through its direct presence in Central and Eastern Europe and sending military equipment to Ukraine, which is fighting against the regime of Vladimir Putin. The United States has the most comprehensive toolset for direct power projection and economic negotiation in the region. It should be noted that an additional tool in the direct implementation of US foreign policy is also NATO, which is constantly strengthening its presence on the eastern flank of the alliance.

In the region of Central and Eastern Europe, there is a constant struggle between the biggest players in the international arena over who will control this area. After analyzing the publicly available information and understanding that control can be exerted in many different ways, it is certain that Mackinder's Theory of Heartland is constantly being implemented. During the war in Ukraine, it can be noticed that apart from Mackinder's idea, the Russian Federation also implements Ratzel's theory by striving to dominate the militarily and economically weaker state of the region in order to expand Russian Lebensraum. In the future, it should be expected that the area of Central and Eastern Europe, along with the tensions in the Indo-Pacific, will be one of the key regions where the situation will dictate the further distribution of power in the world.

 

 

 

 



[1] Bartosiak, J. (2018). Geostrategiczna gra. In Pacyfik I Eurazja: O wojnie (pp. 34–36). essay, Jacek Bartosiak.

[2] Nield, Ted. "Continental Divide". Geological Society. Archived from the original on 3 December 2013

[3] Continents of the world. WorldAtlas. (n.d.). Retrieved November 7, 2022, from https://www.worldatlas.com/continents

[4] Ibidem

[5] Brzezinski, Zbigniew (1997). The grand chessboard : American primacy and its geostrategic imperatives ([Repr.] ed.). New York, NY: Basic Books. p. 31. ISBN 978-0465027262.

[6] Organic state theory (Friedrich Ratzel) - upsc [geography]. LotusArise. (2022, July 23). Retrieved November 9, 2022, from https://lotusarise.com/organic-state-theory-friedrich-ratzel-upsc/

[7] Mackinder, H. J., Democratic Ideals and Reality. A Study in the Politics of Reconstruction, National Defense University Press, 1996, pp. 150

[8] Sloan, Geoffrey R. (1988). Geopolitics in United States Strategic Policy, 1890–1987. Harvester Wheatsheaf. p. 16–19.

[9] Alfred Thayer Mahan: The Influence of Sea Power Upon History: 1660-1783. New York: Dover Publications, 1987

[10] Zbigniew Brzezinski: The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy And Its Geostrategic Imperatives. p.46 New York: Basic Books, 1997

[11] Saul Bernard Cohen: Geopolitics of the World System. Lanham, Maryland: Rowman and Littlefield, 2003, s. 22-23

[12] Huang, Jennifer (March 19, 2003), "A Cold War Legacy of Persian Gulf Conflict", Independent Arts and Media,https://bit.ly/3UQ1IEB, accessed 14/11/2022

[13] GDP (current US$). worldbank.org, accessed 15/11/2022

[14] Russia overview. [w:] The World Factbook [on-line], https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/rs.html, CIA, 2011, accessed 15/11/2022

[15] British Petroleum (BP): Statistical Review of World Energy, June 2008.

[16] Zaniewicz, M. Perspektywy uniezależnienia się UE od rosyjskiego gazu. Pism. Retrieved November 29, 2022, from https://www.pism.pl/publikacje/perspektywy-uniezaleznienia-sie-ue-od-rosyjskiego-gazu, accessed 29/11/2022

[17] Héjj, D.; Paszkowski, M. Consistent increase in Hungary’s energy dependence on Russia. IES Commentaries. Retrieved November 29, 2022, from https://ies.lublin.pl/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ies-commentaries-455-152-2021.pdf, accessed 29/11/2022.

[18] Preussen, W. (2022, August 31). Hungary signs new gas deal with Gazprom. POLITICO. Retrieved November 29, 2022, from https://www.politico.eu/article/hungary-signs-deal-with-gazprom-over-additional-gas/

[19] Stefaniak, P. (2022, August 29). Jak Ewoluuje Inicjatywa pasa I Szlaku? IntermodalNews. Retrieved November 29, 2022, from https://intermodalnews.pl/2022/08/29/jak-ewoluuje-inicjatywa-pasa-i-szlaku/

[20] Kulikowska-Wielgus, A., Wawryszuk, B., Ziemkowska, D., Hennig, K., Wolak, M., & Jakubowska, N. Present condition of the transport and logistics sector in Poland and ... Retrieved November 29, 2022, from https://www.researchgate.net/publication/348050392_PRESENT_CONDITION_OF_THE_TRANSPORT_AND_LOGISTICS_SECTOR_IN_POLAND_AND_BELARUS_AND_PROBLEMS_AND_CHALLENGES_TOITS_DEVELOPMENT

[21] European Comission. Significant increase in EU imports from China. Significant increase in EU imports from China - Products Eurostat News - Eurostat. Retrieved December 17, 2022, from https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-eurostat-news/-/edn-20220401-1

[22] European Comission. EU trade relations with China. Trade. Retrieved December 17, 2022, from https://policy.trade.ec.europa.eu/eu-trade-relationships-country-and-region/countries-and-regions/china_en

[23] EU trade relations with United States. Trade. Retrieved January 2, 2023, from https://policy.trade.ec.europa.eu/eu-trade-relationships-country-and-region/countries-and-regions/united-states_en

[24] Poland-US trade relations 2020. Poland-US trade relations 2020 | American Chamber of Commerce in Poland. Retrieved January 2, 2023, from https://amcham.pl/news/poland-us-trade-relations-2020

[25] Więckowska,M. Rosja Zakręciła polsce kurek Z gazem. W TLE prace nad Trzema Gazociągami. Teraz. Retrieved January 3, 2023, from https://www.teraz-srodowisko.pl/aktualnosci/Rosja-Polska-gaz-gazociag-dostawy-11810.html

[26] Where does the EU's gas come from? Consilium. (2022, November 7). Retrieved January 3, 2023, from https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/infographics/eu-gas-supply/

[27] N. Sönnichsen; 14, N. (2022, November 14). EU: Monthly LNG imports from the U.S. 2022. Statista. Retrieved January 3, 2023, from https://www.statista.com/statistics/1288253/monthly-lng-imports-from-the-us-to-the-eu/

[28] Statista Research Department (2022, March 21). US troops in Europe, by country 2022. Statista. Retrieved January 3, 2023, from https://www.statista.com/statistics/1294271/us-troops-europe-country/

[29] NATO. (2022, March 18). We face a new reality for our security due to #Russia's illegal invasion of #Ukraine 🇺🇦in response, #NATO has reinforced its defensive presence in the eastern part of the alliance with more troops, Planes; ships.here's the overview. Twitter. Retrieved January 3, 2023, from https://twitter.com/NATO/status/1504828470299353089

[30] Ukraine support tracker - A database of military, financial and humanitarian aid to Ukraine. Kiel Institute. Retrieved January 3, 2023, from https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/?cookieLevel=not-set  

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  Will Putin be able to persuade Lukashenko to directly involve the Belarusian army in the war with Ukraine?   By: Nika Chitadze Professor of the International Black Sea University        Director of the Center for International Studies  President of the George C. Marshall Alumni Union, Georgia - International and Security Research Center   As is known, Russian President Putin flew to Minsk on December 19 with his "landing" - Minister of Defense Shoigu and Minister of Foreign Affairs Lavrov, and held very serious talks with his Belarusian counterpart Lukashenko, which could greatly influence the course of the Russian-Ukrainian war in the next two to three months.  The details of Putin's visit to the capital of Belarus were shrouded in secrecy - motorcades of Russian and US presidents usually use two identical armored limousines, which constantly change places in the motorcade to make it difficult for potential attackers of that parti...

АРЕСТ ПУТИНА – МИФ, КОТОРЫЙ МОЖЕТ СТАТЬ РЕАЛЬНОСТЬЮ?

  АРЕСТ ПУТИНА – МИФ, КОТОРЫЙ МОЖЕТ СТАТЬ РЕАЛЬНОСТЬЮ? Как стало известно, 3 сентября запланирован визит российского лидера в Улан-Батор, где он должен принять участие в торжественных мероприятиях по случаю 85-летия совместной победы СССР и Монголии над японскими войсками на реке Халхин-Гол. Также запланирована официальная встреча с президентом Хурэлсухом. Визит Путина в Монголию в Кремле не вызывает «переживаний», несмотря на наличие ордера на его арест, который, по утверждению Международного уголовного суда (МУС) , Улан-Батор обязан выполнить. Примечательно, что Монголия станет первым государством, признающим юрисдикцию МУС, куда Путин намеревается поехать после начала полномасштабного вторжения в Украину. В конце лета 2023 года он отказался от поездки в ЮАР, которая также является страной-подписантом Римского статута. Вместо него тогда в Йоханнесбург, на саммит БРИКС, отправился глава МИД Лавров, а сам же Путин выступил лишь по видеосвязи. Напомним, что 17 марта ...