The threats and challenges facing the international community on the example of the North Korean nuclear and missile program

Authors:

Nika Chitadze. Director of The Center for International Studies

Abdulmelik Alkan, Ph. D. candidate

Ketevan Jebisashvili. Researcher at The Center for International Studies

Introduction. The history of the Korean peninsula after the end of World War II

After the Second World War in 1945 the Japanese occupation ended in Korea. Between the Soviet Union and the US were divided spheres of influence over peninsula. The northern part of the 38th parallel was controlled by the Soviet army and the US controlled the parallel to the south. The situation changed in 1948 when the Soviet Union shifted the government to Kim Il Sung, and the United States left the southern part of the peninsula.After the announcement of independence by South Korea in 1950, North Korea undertook armed aggression against the newly created independent state.The United Nations took part in this process.It is noteworthy that this was the first war in which the United Nations was involved. In particular, when the United Nations Security Council meeting was not attended by the Soviet Union, the UN Security Council adopted a resolution on the sending of UN troops to the Korean Peninsula. Armed forces under the auspices of UN were sent from16 different countries and 41 countries provided military equipment or other assistance (Manly from US army).  As a result of allied military campaigns, the United Nations has established control over almost all of the peninsula of Korea.  However, in order to help the North Korean regime, the Communist China was involved in a conflict.Soviet Union was supplying China with military equipment.Despite the two-year negotiations over the three-year war , the parties could not reach the final agreement, so the Korean war has never been completed, but the de facto border was created(The demilitarized zone (DMZ)).

How did North Korea become a nuclear country?

Later, in 1950, the regime of Kim Il-sung received the first nuclear technology from the Soviet Union. In 1985 North Korea joined the international treaty on non-proliferation of nuclear weapons, which prohibits countries to produce nuclear weapons, but a year later, nuclear power plant was built in the city of Yonbi, north of the North Korean peninsula. In 2003 country left agreement. The development of North Korea's nuclear program was followed by the first successful nuclear test in 2006. In 2009, more powerful nuclear test were conducted.In 2013, North Korea conducted 3rd nuclear test, which was three times more devastating than the previous one.In January 2016, North Korea's 4th nuclear test was carried out successfully (test of hydrogen bomb). In addition, North Korea located ballistic missiles, radius of this missiles  covered the entire Japan.

In November 2017,official  Pyongyang menacedJapan by the nuclear strike,and said that the US military bases in Japan in the Pacific Ocean (particularly on the island of Guam) would be "disrupted".About a week later North Korea launched a missile that flew 1,000 kilometers and then fell into the Japanese sea. As the Defense Department said, it was an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). The ICBM is a weapon that is capable to destroy a target from 15,000 miles away.In total, 2017 was very successful for the North Korean missile program. The country has successfully tested 21 missiles during 14 tests after February.

The current situation in North Korea

North Korea's official name is the People's Democratic Republic of Korea, but according to the majority of experts, in the country they have totalitarian dictatorship. According to the North Korea's state ideology – “Juche” Most of the services, health care, education and food products are under state ownership. Between 1994 and 1998, from 240 to 420 thousand people died because of the hunger strike in the country. North Korea still struggles because of the lack of sufficient food.

Every local media is controlled by the state, foreign media is prohibited and also strictly controlled. Government monitors Internet and international phone calls. People, who have foreign news or movies in mobile, memory cards or USB are subject to be punished. The government systematically forces people to work to control them and to enhance the economy.At a certain stage of life, most of the North Koreans are forced to perform unpaid work.According to the UN, between 80 and 120 thousand people are political prisoners.

Overall, North Korea’s population is 25 million people. The population of North Korea is two times less than the population of South Korea.

How strong North Korea is?

Approximately 22% of the country's GDP is allocated for defense, in the conditions where most of the population is on the edge of Hunger. As a result of such expenses, the number of armed forces of the country isincreaseby 1.2 million military servicemen. At the same time, 665 thousand servicemen are enrolled in the South Korean Armed Forces. In addition, the number of potential reserves is about 14.7 million people.Consequently, North Korea's military potential is one of the main factors of destabilization in the region.

Beyond nuclear weapon, North Korea has a large number of conventional weapons and  one of the greatest artillery potential in the world.  The political elite of the totalitarian regime also claims that the country possesses a hydrogen bomb that has stronger nuclear potential than a normal nuclear bomb, onthis the majority of the international community is already convinced.

The South Korean Defense Ministry estimates that its northern neighbor has from 2500 to 5 thousand metric tons of chemical weapons, including Sarin and VX nervous agents.(Sarin is a chemical weapon used in Syria , which killed 72 people).

North Korea already has close and medium-sized missile, this is a threat for its major geopolitical and ideological rivals in the region, first of all, of course for South Korea and Japan. Also it’s a treat for  62 thousand US military servicemen who are stationed on military bases in these countries.

Is it expected Korea - US War ?

  For decades, the US tried to prevent accessto nuclear weapons for aggressive regimes. However, various tactics of various presidents did not justify and North Korea continued to work on nuclear weapons. President Clinton had been actively seeking for negotiations, President Bush had made specific sanctions against Korea, and President Obama had used "strategic patience" tactics that eventually failed to achieve.

Despite tensions, most observers believe that the possibility of launching the war is low.

In this tension, it is important to take into account the role of China.

In this situation, according to UN data, 85 percent of North Korea's exports come from China, which is vital for the country's economy.Against this backdrop, in August 2017, China said it was ready to block import of coal, minerals and seafood from North Korea.In this case North Korea will lose the only ally in the world.

It’s important  that North and South Korea have come under the same flag in 2018 Winter Olympics.In addition, the leaders of the two countries held negotiations in April 27 in one of the villages on the border of the two countries.

The North Korean government says it is ready for nuclear disarmament, but its actions still causes doubts. Under communist rule, over the years,Korea had an aggressive policy. Also Russia is trying to activate series of negotiations with North Korea, it is difficult to say that in a short time, country can radically change its policies and is already ready for negotiations.

The meeting, which was held in Singapore in June 12, 2018,was very important fact, as North Korea agreed to negotiate with the United States in exchange for removing economic sanctions. Consequently, only afterpublic discussions we’ll be able to talksabout what is going to happen next.