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Military and Geostrategic Balance between NATO and Russia in the Wide Black Sea Area and Perspectives of the Providing Security in the Region


Nika Chitadze. Ph.D.
Director of the Center for Intermnational Studies  of the International Black Sea University


Ketevan Jebisashvili
Research Fellow of the Center for International Studies of the International Black Sea University

Abstract:
In the research, there are analyzed main aspects, related to the importance of the geopolitical location of the Black Sea Region, militarization of the region – especially after the Crimea crisis, military potential of Russia and NATO member states from the Black Sea Region and new strategy of NATO and USA for the Black Sea Area based on the current realities

Keywords:
Black Sea, NATO, Russia, Military Balance, Armed Forces

Introduction:  
The continuous Ukrainian crisis and military agression of Russia against Georgia and Ukraine and occupation of the Tskhinvali district (so-called South Ossetia), Abkhazia and Crimea have clearly showed,  that  the  use  of the rigid  force,  such as  gradual  it  not was, remains one of the versions of the development of the events in the Black Sea Region. Especially after the occupation of Crimea,  led  to  the  violation of the balance of security in the Black Sea  region  and  presented the  increasing  of the militarization,  which is characteristic for this territory,  in  the  new  situation. Ever more active actions of the Maritime Forces of the interested parties  in the  Black Sea basin again drew attention to the importance of the matitime aspect of  the regional security. 

Nevertheless,  the military potential of the countries of the Black Sea  Region  remains  to a high degree  non-equivalent  and  recent  events have emphasized  the  role  of  NATO  and USA in  the  compensation  of Russian military potential in the area of Black Sea Region. Besides,  the  analysis of the expenditures of the countries  of  Black Sea  Region  for  defense,  the present article contains the study of the ratio of the armed forces  in  the  region,  based  on  estimation and comparison of the  corresponding  potentials of  the neighboring countries.

Geopolitical and Geo-strategic Importance of the Black Sea Region

After the collapse of USSR, the new geopolitical realities have been created in the global  politics and especially on the post-soviet space. Together such positive event as disintegration of the last totalitarian empire USSR, in the beginning of 1990s of the 20th century several political and interethnic conflicts have been emerged in the post-soviet space, first of all in the Black Sea region. Imperialistic ambitions of Russia have increased the tension in that area.  

The Wider Black Sea Region has become a new strategic frontier for Europe, Russia and the United States in terms of energy security, frozen and festering conflicts, trade links, migration, and other key policy areas. Prospects for the Black Sea in the 21st century will be shaped by the interaction between major external actors, the ambitions of states and peoples in the region, and the region’s role as a crossroads of civilizations.

There are three groups of basic interests, represented in the Black Sea region of today. First, the interests of the West, divided quite explicitly between the US and the positions of the major continental European countries. Both, Washington and the EU powers pursue strategies for change and transformation of the region around the Black Sea, motivated by different – only partially coinciding - policy agendas.

Second, the interests of post-Soviet Russia and Turkey, as a leading geopolitical players from the Region.  

Third, we observe the interests of the smaller Black Sea countries (Ukraine included, even if its size does not correspond to the definition of a “small country”). Those smaller countries are quite diverse and challenged by different policy agendas. 

Militarization of the Black Sea Region after annexation of Crimea

Since 2000  until 2015 defense expenditures  in the  Black Sea region  on average composed 2.5 - 2.4%  of  GDP and  in 2007 the maximum - 3.1% was achieved. While  in  the  first half of 2000-th  defense expenditures  were reducing  and  in 2004 the minimum (2.3% of GDP) was achieved,  the  second-half  of the decade  since 2005 and until 2008 is characterized by an increasing in the expenditures.  After 2008, in spite of the Russian-Georgian war, the  economic crisis  put  an end  to the  raising the militarization of the region and defense expenditures  in  the  Black Sea since 2008 until 2009 were sharply (by 10%)  reduced. From financial point of view, from approximately 40 billion UD Dollars  till to the 36  billion US Dollars.  In the percentages of the GDP,  the expenditures were stabilized on the level about 3%. The  most noticeable changes were observed since 2008 until 2010.  In 2010,  the countries of Black Sea Region spent on the armed forces 2.6% of GDP,  which  in terms of finances was equal  to  approximately  34 billion US Dollars and is the lowest index  during  the  period  since 2005. However, since 2010,  the negative consequences  of the economic crisis began to step back,  and  in  the Black Sea  region  again  was observed  a considerable  and  constant  increase  of  the  defense expenditures, which were in terms of money increased by 10% -  from 34 billion dollars of the USA in 2010 to 38 billion US Dollars in 2013 (1)
Crimean crisis made it necessary, that the members of NATO reconsidered their attitude to the defense spendings, which before were decreased because of  the  economic crisis.  In June 2014, the US Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel applied to the NATO Allies to increase their military expenditures and to invest no less than 2% of GDP into the defense sector (2).  As  the  reaction  to  the Ukrainian  crisis,  Romania,  Poland,  Lithuania and  Latvia already declared  about  the  plans with respect to an increase in their defense budget.  

Military Potential of the Russia and NATO member states from the Black Sea Region

Military potential of Russia

For the determination the new security environment in the Black Sea Area, it is necessary to analyze the military potentials of Russia and NATO member states.

Acccording the Stocholm International Peace Research Institute, military expenditures of Russia within 2003-2014 years increased for 108% (3). 

Russian military contingent in the Black Sea/Caspian Region is presented by Southern Military District (Южный военный округ России). Which was founded in 2010 on the base of the Miliary district of the Northern Caucasus, Black Sea Fleet, Caspian Fleet and Fourth Command point of the Air Forces and Anti - Aircraft forces.  Headquater of the dictrict is deployed in Rostov. To this district are belonged miliary bases, which are located in Armenia, also in the occupied territories – Abkhazia, Tskhinvali District (former South Ossetian Authonomous District) and since March 2014, in Crimea, Sebastopol.

After the occupation of the territory of Ukraine, the number of the Russian Military Forces, which are deployed in the District, has been changed, but, Russian sources do not mention the exact number of the troops. It is considered, that the troops of the Southern District poses better military techniques and there are better trained than that of other military districts (военных округах) – Western, Central and Eastern.

Due to the desire of Russia, to increase the sphere of its geopolitical and geostrategic influence in the Black Sea Region, the miliatry contingent of Russia was singinifantly strengthened within the period 2013 – 2016. There were created  four  new  divisions with nine brigades, twenty-two regiments, including two missile  brigades,  equipped  with  complexes  “Iskander missile-M”.

In  the arsenal  of the  troops of the Southern District are  approximately 400 tanks (equally T-72 and T-90);  about 1 thousand  Combat Vehicles and antiaircraft systems S-300, “Buck”, “Strela-10” etc. 

Air Forces of the Southern Miliatry District include 100  front bombers Su-24,  more than  80 attack aircraft  Su-25,  about  100 fighters  (MiG-29, Sy-27, Su-30). There is a very  powerful  group  of  army  aviation,  in which  it is more than  100  combat helicopters, 12 heavy transport Mi-26, and more than 60 multipurpose Mi-8/17[1].

In the composition of  Black Sea fleet  are  six submarines, rocket cruiser "Moskva", six small rocket vessels, five rocket launches, seven large landing ship (4).

At the same time, there are two rocket missiles in the Caspian fleet, with the special rockert complex, thee small artillery ships and six landing launches.

Approximately  90%  of  tonnage of fleet are stationed in the ports of the Crimea, first of all in Sebastopol 80% and also in Feodosia (9%). There are about 13 Thousand military personnel, which are mostly deployed in Crimea and also at the other military bases, in Temriuk (Azov Sea), Novorossysk and Ochanchire (Abkhazia).  

Military Capabilities of the NATO member states from the Black Sea Region

Turkey - The Turkish Armed Forces by their number are considered as the second largest standing military force in NATO, after the U.S. Armed Forces, with an estimated strength in 2015 of 639,551 military, civilian and paramilitary personnel (5). Turkey is one of five NATO member states which are part of the nuclear sharing policy of the alliance, together with Belgium, Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands. A total of 90 B61 nuclear bombs are hosted at the Incirlik Air Base, 40 of which are allocated for use by the Turkish Air Force in case of a nuclear conflict, but their use requires the approval of NATO (6).

Bulgaria -  Bulgaria's total military personnel as of 2014 was 37,100, of which 30,400 (80.1%) are active military personnel and 8,100 (11.9%) are civilian personnel. The Land Forces are the largest direction of the Bulgarian Armed Forces, with at least 18,000 men serving there. According to the percentage, 53% of all Army personnel are in the Land Forces, 25% are in the Air Force, 13% are in the Navy and 9% are in the Joint Forces Command (7).

After the events in Ukraine, on February 5, 2015, at the meetings of the Ministers of Defense of the NATO member states the decision, about foundation of the Command Center of the Responce forces of NATO was adopted.

Romania - 84,000 military personnel are involved for the service at the Armed Forces of Romania. Out of the 90,000 military and civilian personnel, 60,000 are the active troops, while 30,000 comprise the active territorial reserves (8). As of 2010, on ther share of the Land Forces was coming 43,000, the Air Force 9,700, the Naval Forces 7,150, and Joint Forces 13,500. As per the 2011 White Paper, these forces had to be gradually decreased over the 2011–2014 period to reach a total of about 65,000 active troops and active reserves, but, after the deterioration the situation in Crimea, In May of 2014, the  Prime Minister of Romania Victor Ponta stated that toward the end of the year, Romania would increase its defense expenditure by 0.2%.  In January 2015, newly elected President Klaus Werner Iohannis promised that  by 2017,  Bucharest would increase  its defense expenditures to 2% of GDP and  it will support them at the level indicated until 2027 (9).

New Strategy of NATO after crisis in Ukraine

After the ending of the “cold war”, particulalrly since 1997, when the charter  about  the  special  partnership  between Ukraine  and  NATO  was  signed,  within the framework of  the  program  “Partnership for Peace” each year are held the  international  Ukrainian-American Naval studies  “Sea Breeze”,  in which constantly take  part both - the countries of the Black Sea  region and member nations of NATO. 

Military agression of Russia against Georgia and Ukraine forced the NATO and USA to reconsider the issue related to the military presence in the Black Sea Region. Main aspects of the new strategy of NATO were considered during the Summits of the Alliance in Wales and Warshaw.

Particularly, Wales Summit of NATO has become one of the most important event after the occupation by Russia the Criema, which was held in NewportWales on 4 and 5 September 2014. The 2014 summit has been described by Admiral James Stavridis as the most important since the fall of the Berlin Wall (11).
The following declarations and agreements were made at the Summit:

Wales Summit Declaration;
Joint Expeditionary Force agreement;
Armed Forces Declaration;
Joint Statement of the NATO-Ukraine Commission;
Declaration on Afghanistan.

It is important to mention about main part of the Wales Summit Declaration, where for the first time after the “Cold War” period Russia was recognized as an agressor:  “We, the Heads of State and Government of the member countries of the North Atlantic Alliance, have gathered in Wales at a pivotal moment in Euro-Atlantic security. Russia’s aggressive actions against Ukraine have fundamentally challenged our vision of a Europe whole, free, and at peace. Growing instability in our southern neighbourhood, from the Middle East to North Africa, as well as transnational and multidimensional threats, are also challenging our security. These can all have long-term consequences for peace and security in the EuroAtlantic region and stability across the globe (11).

About the increasing the military capabilities of NATO, it was mentioned at the articles 7 and 8 of the declaration:
“7. The assurance measures include continuous air, land, and maritime presence and meaningful military activity in the eastern part of the Alliance, both on a rotational basis. They will provide the fundamental baseline requirement for assurance and deterrence, and are flexible and scalable in response to the evolving security situation..........” (12)

8. For this purpose, daptation measures include the components required to ensure that the Alliance can fully address the security challenges it might face. We will significantly enhance the responsiveness of our NATO Response Force (NRF) by developing force packages that are able to move rapidly and respond to potential challenges and threats. As part of it, we will establish a Very High Readiness Joint Task Force (VJTF), a new Allied joint force that will be able to deploy within a few days to respond to challenges that arise, particularly at the periphery of NATO’s territory........(13)

Important desicions were adopted during the Warshaw Summit too, which was held in 2016. At the final declaration, it was mentioned about new security environment in the Euro-Atlantic area. Particularly:  
“There is an arc of insecurity and instability along NATO's periphery and beyond. The Alliance faces a range of security challenges and threats that originate both from the east and from the south; from state and non-state actors; from military forces and from terrorist, cyber, or hybrid attacks. Russia's aggressive actions, including provocative military activities in the periphery of NATO territory and its demonstrated willingness to attain political goals by the threat and use of force, are a source of regional instability, fundamentally challenge the Alliance, have damaged Euro-Atlantic security, and threaten our long-standing goal of a Europe whole, free, and at peace (14).

Consequences of the policy of NATO in the Black Sea Region after occupation of Crimea

Due to the increasing the tentions, Secretary General of NATO Yens Stoltenberg declared about the possibility to increase the military capabilities of the Alliance in the Black Sea Region. Countries of the NATO have declared about their readiness to strengthen their contingents in the Baltic Region and Eastern Europe.

Great Britain, Germany and USA have declared about their plans to send in the Eastern Europe and Baltic Region the battalions of their military personnel, for the preventing the possible “invasion” from the Russian side. As it was mentioned the news paper of “The Telegraph”, in Bulgaria, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania and Estonia can be sent 500-1000 militaries for the showing before the Russia, that any interference in the “Ukrainian style” will have the reply from the NATO side.  The discussion deals with the forces of the special operations, which are armed with anti-aircraft missiles, helicopters and attack aircraft (15).

During the meeting of the Ministers of Defenseof NATO alliance countries in Brussels,  Secretary General  Jens  Stoltenberg  immediately stated about the strengthening of the capabilities of the military forces of alliance in the Black Sea region, “including  Naval  Forces and facilities  of reconnaissance  and  opportunity  for  the  transfer  of reinforcements”,  and  also  about  the  plans  of  the  restraining  “hybrid threats” in East Europe by “small forces”.

“NATO already strengthened its maritime presence in the Black Sea, including Naval forces and observation from the aircraft-radars of AWACS, which are located in Romania, Bulgaria and Turkey.  We  constantly  control  situation  in  the Black sea and are increasing  our military  opportunities  and  also  the  opportunity  of conducting of  reconnaissance  and  transfer  of reinforcements to this region”. According to the Secretary General, we implement the most important strengthening of our collective defense after the ending of the “Cold War” (15).

Deployment of the American Military Objects in the Black Sea Region

Due to the increasing the tensions, the number of the NATO Responce Forces has been increased for the three times, till the 40 000 military servicemen (17). From its turn, under the Obama Administration, “White House” declared about releasing about 4 Billion USD for the preventing the “Russian agression”. For the resistance to the Russian aggression and support of the European Allies: Budget includes 4,4 Billion USD for the political, economic and public diplomacy, and also military support, for the decreasing the Russian opportunities for the implementation aggression of Russia against NATO alliances, and partner states in Europe, Eurasia and Central Asia (18).
Even before the Ukrainian crisis, within the framework of  the  realization  of  Naval concept “Sea Power 21” during the period 2005-2010, USA  substantially strengthened their military presence in the  Western Black Sea area by the development the systems of military bases in Romania and Bulgaria.  In December 2005, Romania  and  in April 2006  Bulgaria  signed  with the USA agreements about the collaboration in the sphere  of defense,  which  provide the deployment on the territory of  these  countries American  military bases  for  their  using  as  the intermediate  strong points  on the way from Europe to  Afghanistan  and  Iraq (during the deployment of US Forces at those states).

Romanian military objects near  the  city  Constanta (airfield and the training range)  practically  became  the  base  of the USA and  NATO. On  the  airfield  were  deployed  fighters F-15 and F-16 and also attack aircraft A-10 of the USAF (United States Air Force).  According to some data,  there were deployed about 2500 US Soldiers (19). American contingent also actively used  ranges  in Chinku and Smardan.  In the military contingent were included the subdivisions of marines, aviation, technical subdivision as a component part of the south European forces of  NATO.

In  Bulgaria,  up to  the  signing  of the  agreement, USA could use a base of Air Forces into Sarafovo and and port  Burgas  on  the  Black Sea coast.  According to the agreement, American military bases were placed in  Novo-Selo Region,  on  the  airfield  in  Bezmere (both objects are located not far from  the  boundary with Turkey)  and  airfield  in  the Graph-Ignatyeva (near Plovdiv). On these objects are stationed the units of the Armed Forces of the United States and Bulgaria. The arrangement of weapon of mass destruction in bases of USA in Romania  and  Bulgaria  is  excluded.

Before the crimea crisis, US troops were already  placed  on  a  constant  basis in Turkey (for example air bases in Incirlik) and Greece (for example air base of Iraklion).

In 2010, Washington began the implementation of the program of the military trainings of Black Sea Rotational Forces  (BSRF), in which had to be participated about 250 marines, “task of whom became the maintenance of  the positive relations with the friendly nations, strengthening the stability in the region, and also improvement in interaction for the providing the operational  reaction  to  the crises  in  the  Black Sea,  Balkan and Caucasian regions”.  Besides BSRF,  for the conducting the transit operations, USA stationed 500 soldiers in Romania on the air base  “Mikhail  Kogelnichanu”. In Ukraine  the Western countries took measures for the support of  Kyiv during the crisis on Donbass. In April 2015, USA sent to the West Ukraine 290 military advisers (operation of Fearless Guardian) for the six months period (20).

Canada sent to Ukraine 200 military sertvicemen till the March 2017 (21), Great Britain sent to the city Nikolaev on the South of Ukraine 35 advisers for the giving the consultations to the Ukrainian Militaries. Besides, Washington made the decision to deliver to Ukraine 1200 units of teqnique, including 250 Tanks M1-A2, the combat vehicles  Bradley and also armored howitzers for their deployement in the regions, near the front line (22).

The part of these combat units can  be stationed in Romania or Bulgaria.  The  USA  and other members of NATO were presented  in the Black sea on the semipermanent basis  since March 2014  and  periodically carried out  the  international  Naval studies,  such  as  Sea Breeze (September 2015).  In  Georgia  there are no permanent American troops, however,  there are conducted  the  joint  Georgian-American  military maneuvers:  in May 2015, 600 American soldiers participated in the exercises “Noble Partner”(23).

Conclusions and Recommendations 

Together with the military presence, for the providing the further enlargement of Democracy, Western democratic values, providing security in the Black Sea Area etc. NATO and western democratic society should provide:
-          Maximal support in the implementation democratic reforms and promoting integration to the western democratic society those states, whose foreign policy and national security priorities are the establishment closer relations with the west. For example, to get consensus for the admission of Georgia and Ukraine to NATO and further integration to the European structures of those states;
-                      Transformation of NATO and EU to the organizations with more Global functions. For the democracy enlargement, it is necessary to provide security in the different regions of the World. In this regard it should be mentioned about the role of NATO and EU in this process. Taking into account, that both organizations first of all represent not politico-military and security (in case of NATO) and economic (in case of EU) organizations, but they are international regional communities of the democratic states, based on the same values – Superiority of the law and respect and protection the fundamental principles of human rights. Furthermore, taking into consideration the limited resources of UN and problems (as it was mentioned above)– related to the adoption of the decisions within the Unites Nations related to the providing peace and security, it represent the great importance to increase the role, functions and geographical area of actions of NATO and EU;
-          Information Campaign   - Providing information campaign in the partner countries of the Black Sea Region for the increasing the public awareness on NATO and EU, their positive role in the providing economic prosperity, peace and security;

Together with the opening by USA and NATO new military objects on the territories of NATO member states and partners in the Black Sea Region, the Alliance should take into consideration the strengthening of its presence at the marine space of the Black Sea by the implementation of the security and antiterrorist operation similar to “Active Endevoir” program in the Mediterranian. In this regard, it should be taken into cosideration the main principles of the Montreux Convention Particularly:

“The convention was adopted in 1936 and limits during the peace period the passing through the Bospore and Dardanell channels the passing of the military ships of the non-Black Sea countries.  
Limitation  of the class of ships and general tonnage from the moment of their approach into the marine area - 15,000 tons. Furthermore,  there are indicated limits for the one-time presence in the Black sea: 30,000 tons for all non Black Sea Region`s countries, together, with a corresponding increase in this limit, but not more than 45,000 tons  in the of an increase in the  tonnage  of the Black Sea fleet by 10,000 or more tons. Also, there  is  limitation of the  period  of a stay  in the marine area — three weeks. The countries, which have entrance to the Black sea,  in  a  number  of cases can pass through the straits their submarines and also large ships  without  the  limitation  of  tonnage  with  the  protection  the specified  conditions, which  are determined  by  the  convention” (24).

Accordingly, NATO member states should create the convenient base for the cooperation with member of the Alliance Turkey, which should provide the passage of the military ships throught the channels, which are located on its territory.

Increasing the military presence in the Black Sea Region, will create the convenient base for the more secured implementation of the economic and energy projects in the Region, further socio-economic development of the Region and resolving the conflicts in the long-term perspective by peaceful means. 

References:  

1.Игорь Деланоэ. Соотношение вооруженных сил в Черноморском Регионе.  Российский совет по международным деламю 2016 http://russiancouncil.ru/blackseamilitary

2.  Andrew Richter. Sharing the burden? U.S. allies, defense spending, and the future of NATO. Journal Comparative Strategy. Volume 35, 2016 - Issue 4

3. Russia's defense spending and the economic decline. Journal of Eurasian Studies
Volume 7, Issue 1, January 2016, Pages 60–70.




4. Александр Храмчихин. Политика, Оборона. Южный округ: противники на Кавказе России не страшны. / 07 октября 2013,











5. NEWS FROM TURKISH ARMED FORCES". Turkish Armed Forces. tsk.tr. Retrieved February 2017

6. Hans M. Kristensen. "NRDC: U.S. Nuclear Weapons in Europe" (PDF). Natural Resources Defense Council, 2005. Retrieved 4 February 2017.



9. Romania’s budget for 2017 is “too optimistic and overvalued”, says president Iohannis. By Finance January 31, 2017


10. Kim Hjelmgaard. NATO summit 'most important' since fall of Berlin Wall

USA TODAYPublished 9:12 a.m. ET Aug. 31, 2014

11.http://www.europarl.europa.eu/meetdocs/2014_2019/documents/sede/dv/sede240914walessummit_/sede240914walessummit_en.pdf

12. http://www.europarl.europa.eu/meetdocs/2014_2019/documents/sede/dv/sede240914walessummit_/sede240914walessummit_en.pdf

13. http://www.europarl.europa.eu/meetdocs/2014_2019/documents/sede/dv/sede240914walessummit_/sede240914walessummit_en.pdf

 14. http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_133169.htm



17. By Pierre Meilhan and Steve Almasy, CNN. NATO to triple size of reaction force. Updated 0045 GMT (0845 HKT) June 25, 2015


 

19. Военно-политическая активность США и НАТО в Черноморско-Каспийском регионе после августа 2008 года. 25.03.10


20. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/apr/20/us-paratroopers-begin-training-national-guard-units-in-ukraine

21. http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ukraine-crisis-canada-sending-200-trainers-for-ukraine-military-1.3031806



24. Montreux Convention (1936)." The Companion to British History, Routledge. 2001.



[1] http://rusplt.ru/policy/yujnyiy-okrug-protivniki-na-kavkaze-rossii-ne-strashnyi.html

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  АРЕСТ ПУТИНА – МИФ, КОТОРЫЙ МОЖЕТ СТАТЬ РЕАЛЬНОСТЬЮ? Как стало известно, 3 сентября запланирован визит российского лидера в Улан-Батор, где он должен принять участие в торжественных мероприятиях по случаю 85-летия совместной победы СССР и Монголии над японскими войсками на реке Халхин-Гол. Также запланирована официальная встреча с президентом Хурэлсухом. Визит Путина в Монголию в Кремле не вызывает «переживаний», несмотря на наличие ордера на его арест, который, по утверждению Международного уголовного суда (МУС) , Улан-Батор обязан выполнить. Примечательно, что Монголия станет первым государством, признающим юрисдикцию МУС, куда Путин намеревается поехать после начала полномасштабного вторжения в Украину. В конце лета 2023 года он отказался от поездки в ЮАР, которая также является страной-подписантом Римского статута. Вместо него тогда в Йоханнесбург, на саммит БРИКС, отправился глава МИД Лавров, а сам же Путин выступил лишь по видеосвязи. Напомним, что 17 марта ...