Military and Geostrategic Balance between NATO and Russia in the Wide Black Sea Area and Perspectives of the Providing Security in the Region
Nika Chitadze. Ph.D.
Director of the Center
for Intermnational Studies of the
International Black Sea University
Ketevan Jebisashvili
Research Fellow of
the Center for International Studies of the International Black Sea University
Abstract:
In the research,
there are analyzed main aspects, related to the importance of the geopolitical
location of the Black Sea Region, militarization of the region – especially
after the Crimea crisis, military potential of Russia and NATO member states
from the Black Sea Region and new strategy of NATO and USA for the Black Sea
Area based on the current realities
Keywords:
Black Sea, NATO,
Russia, Military Balance, Armed Forces
Introduction:
The continuous Ukrainian crisis and military
agression of Russia against Georgia and Ukraine and occupation of the
Tskhinvali district (so-called South Ossetia), Abkhazia and Crimea have clearly
showed, that the use of the rigid force,
such as gradual it not was, remains
one of the versions of the development of the
events in the Black Sea Region. Especially after the
occupation of Crimea, led to the violation of the
balance of security in the Black Sea region and presented
the increasing of the militarization, which is
characteristic for this territory, in the new
situation. Ever more active actions of the Maritime Forces of the
interested parties in the Black Sea basin again
drew attention to the importance of the matitime
aspect of the regional security.
Nevertheless,
the military potential of the countries of the Black
Sea Region remains to a high degree non-equivalent
and recent events have emphasized the role of
NATO and USA in the compensation of Russian
military potential in the area of Black Sea
Region. Besides, the analysis of the expenditures of
the countries of Black Sea Region for defense,
the present article contains the study of
the ratio of the armed forces in the region, based
on estimation and comparison of the corresponding potentials
of the neighboring countries.
Geopolitical and Geo-strategic Importance of the Black Sea
Region
After the collapse of
USSR, the new geopolitical realities have been created in the global politics and especially on the post-soviet
space. Together such positive event as disintegration of the last totalitarian
empire USSR, in the beginning of 1990s of the 20th century several political and
interethnic conflicts have been emerged in the post-soviet space, first of all
in the Black Sea region. Imperialistic ambitions of Russia have increased the
tension in that area.
The Wider Black Sea Region
has become a new strategic frontier for Europe, Russia and the United States in
terms of energy security, frozen and festering conflicts, trade links,
migration, and other key policy areas. Prospects for the Black Sea in the 21st
century will be shaped by the interaction between major external actors, the
ambitions of states and peoples in the region, and the region’s role as a
crossroads of civilizations.
There are three
groups of basic interests, represented in the Black Sea region of today. First,
the interests of the West, divided quite explicitly between the US and the
positions of the major continental European countries. Both, Washington and the
EU powers pursue strategies for change and transformation of the region around
the Black Sea, motivated by different – only partially coinciding - policy
agendas.
Second, the interests
of post-Soviet Russia and Turkey, as a leading geopolitical players from the
Region.
Third, we observe the
interests of the smaller Black Sea countries (Ukraine included, even if its
size does not correspond to the definition of a “small country”). Those smaller
countries are quite diverse and challenged by different policy agendas.
Militarization of the Black Sea Region after annexation of
Crimea
Since 2000
until 2015 defense expenditures in the Black Sea region on
average composed 2.5 - 2.4% of GDP and in 2007 the maximum -
3.1% was achieved. While in the first half of 2000-th
defense expenditures were reducing and in 2004 the minimum (2.3% of GDP) was achieved,
the second-half of the decade since 2005 and until
2008 is characterized by an increasing in the expenditures. After
2008, in spite of the Russian-Georgian war, the economic
crisis put an end to the raising the militarization of the
region and defense expenditures in the Black Sea since 2008 until
2009 were sharply (by 10%) reduced. From financial point of
view, from approximately 40 billion UD Dollars till to the
36 billion US Dollars. In the percentages of the GDP,
the expenditures were stabilized on the level about 3%. The
most noticeable changes were observed since 2008 until
2010. In 2010, the countries of Black Sea Region
spent on the armed forces 2.6% of GDP, which in terms of finances
was equal to approximately 34 billion US Dollars and is the lowest
index during the period since 2005. However,
since 2010, the negative consequences of the economic
crisis began to step back, and in the
Black Sea region again was observed a
considerable and constant increase of
the defense expenditures, which were in terms of money
increased by 10% - from 34 billion dollars of
the USA in 2010 to 38 billion US Dollars in 2013 (1).
Crimean crisis made
it necessary, that the members of NATO reconsidered their
attitude to the defense spendings, which before were decreased because
of the economic crisis. In June 2014, the US Secretary
of Defense Chuck Hagel applied to the NATO
Allies to increase their military expenditures and to
invest no less than 2% of GDP into the defense
sector (2).
As the reaction to the Ukrainian crisis, Romania,
Poland, Lithuania and Latvia already declared about
the plans with respect
to an increase in their defense budget.
Military Potential of the Russia and NATO member states from
the Black Sea Region
Military potential of
Russia
For the determination
the new security environment in the Black Sea Area, it is necessary to analyze
the military potentials of Russia and NATO member states.
Acccording the
Stocholm International Peace Research Institute, military expenditures of
Russia within 2003-2014 years increased for 108% (3).
Russian military
contingent in the Black Sea/Caspian Region is presented by Southern Military
District (Южный военный округ России). Which was founded in 2010 on the base of
the Miliary district of the Northern Caucasus, Black Sea Fleet, Caspian Fleet and
Fourth Command point of the Air Forces and Anti - Aircraft forces. Headquater of the dictrict is deployed in Rostov.
To this district are belonged miliary bases, which are located in Armenia, also
in the occupied territories – Abkhazia, Tskhinvali District (former South
Ossetian Authonomous District) and since March 2014, in Crimea, Sebastopol.
After the occupation
of the territory of Ukraine, the number of the Russian Military Forces, which
are deployed in the District, has been changed, but, Russian sources do not
mention the exact number of the troops. It is considered, that the troops of
the Southern District poses better military techniques and there are better
trained than that of other military districts (военных округах) – Western,
Central and Eastern.
Due to the desire of
Russia, to increase the sphere of its geopolitical and geostrategic influence
in the Black Sea Region, the miliatry contingent of Russia was singinifantly
strengthened within the period 2013 – 2016. There were created four
new divisions with nine brigades, twenty-two regiments, including two
missile brigades, equipped with complexes “Iskander missile-M”.
In the arsenal of the
troops of the Southern District are approximately 400 tanks (equally T-72 and T-90);
about 1 thousand Combat Vehicles and antiaircraft systems S-300,
“Buck”, “Strela-10” etc.
Air Forces of the Southern Miliatry
District include 100 front bombers Su-24, more than 80 attack aircraft
Su-25, about 100 fighters (MiG-29, Sy-27, Su-30).
There is a very powerful group of army aviation, in which it is more
than 100 combat helicopters,
12 heavy transport Mi-26, and more than 60 multipurpose Mi-8/17[1].
In the composition of
Black Sea fleet are six submarines,
rocket cruiser "Moskva", six small rocket vessels,
five rocket launches, seven large landing ship (4).
At the same time, there are two rocket
missiles in the Caspian fleet, with the special rockert complex, thee small
artillery ships and six landing launches.
Approximately 90% of tonnage of fleet are
stationed in the ports of the Crimea, first of all in
Sebastopol 80% and also in Feodosia (9%). There are about 13 Thousand military
personnel, which are mostly deployed in Crimea and also at the other military
bases, in Temriuk (Azov Sea), Novorossysk and Ochanchire (Abkhazia).
Military Capabilities
of the NATO member states from the Black Sea Region
Turkey - The Turkish Armed Forces by their number
are considered as the second largest standing military force in NATO,
after the U.S. Armed Forces, with an estimated strength in 2015 of 639,551 military,
civilian and paramilitary personnel (5). Turkey
is one of five NATO member states which are part of the nuclear sharing policy of the alliance, together with
Belgium, Germany,
Italy, and the Netherlands. A total of 90 B61 nuclear bombs are hosted at the Incirlik Air Base, 40 of which are allocated for use by the Turkish Air Force in case of a nuclear conflict, but their
use requires the approval of NATO (6).
Bulgaria - Bulgaria's total military
personnel as of 2014 was 37,100, of which 30,400 (80.1%) are active military
personnel and 8,100 (11.9%) are civilian personnel. The Land Forces are the
largest direction of the Bulgarian Armed Forces, with at least 18,000 men serving
there. According to the percentage, 53% of all Army personnel are in the Land
Forces, 25% are in the Air Force, 13% are in the Navy and 9% are in the Joint
Forces Command (7).
After the events in Ukraine, on
February 5, 2015, at the meetings of the Ministers of Defense of the NATO
member states the decision, about foundation of the Command Center of the
Responce forces of NATO was adopted.
Romania - 84,000 military personnel are involved for the service at
the Armed Forces of Romania. Out of the 90,000 military and civilian personnel,
60,000 are the active troops, while 30,000 comprise the active territorial reserves (8). As of 2010, on
ther share of the Land Forces was coming 43,000, the Air Force 9,700, the Naval
Forces 7,150, and Joint Forces 13,500. As per the 2011 White Paper, these
forces had to be gradually decreased over the 2011–2014 period to reach a total
of about 65,000 active troops and active reserves, but, after the deterioration
the situation in Crimea, In May of 2014, the Prime Minister of
Romania Victor Ponta stated that toward the end
of the year, Romania would increase its defense
expenditure by 0.2%. In January 2015, newly elected President Klaus
Werner Iohannis promised that by 2017, Bucharest would
increase its defense expenditures to 2% of GDP
and it will support them at the level indicated until
2027 (9).
New Strategy of NATO after crisis in Ukraine
After the ending of the “cold war”,
particulalrly since 1997, when the charter about the special
partnership between Ukraine and NATO was signed,
within the framework of the program “Partnership for Peace” each
year are held the international Ukrainian-American Naval studies
“Sea Breeze”, in which constantly take part both - the countries of
the Black Sea region and member nations of NATO.
Military agression of Russia against
Georgia and Ukraine forced the NATO and USA to reconsider the issue related to
the military presence in the Black Sea Region. Main aspects of the new strategy
of NATO were considered during the Summits of the Alliance in Wales and
Warshaw.
Particularly, Wales Summit of NATO has
become one of the most important event after the occupation by Russia the
Criema, which was held in Newport, Wales on 4 and 5
September 2014. The 2014 summit has been described by Admiral James Stavridis as the most important since the
fall of the Berlin Wall
(11).
The following declarations and agreements were made at the
Summit:
Wales Summit
Declaration;
Joint Expeditionary
Force agreement;
Armed Forces
Declaration;
Joint Statement of
the NATO-Ukraine Commission;
Declaration on
Afghanistan.
It is important to mention about main
part of the Wales Summit Declaration, where for the first time after the “Cold
War” period Russia was recognized as an agressor: “We, the Heads of State and Government of the
member countries of the North Atlantic Alliance, have gathered in Wales at a
pivotal moment in Euro-Atlantic security. Russia’s
aggressive actions against Ukraine have fundamentally challenged our vision of
a Europe whole, free, and at peace. Growing instability in our southern
neighbourhood, from the Middle East to North Africa, as well as transnational
and multidimensional threats, are also challenging our security. These can all
have long-term consequences for peace and security in the EuroAtlantic region
and stability across the globe (11).
About the increasing the military capabilities
of NATO, it was mentioned at the articles 7 and 8 of the declaration:
“7. The assurance measures include
continuous air, land, and maritime presence and meaningful military activity in
the eastern part of the Alliance, both on a rotational basis. They will provide
the fundamental baseline requirement for assurance and deterrence, and are
flexible and scalable in response to the evolving security situation..........”
(12)
8. For this purpose, daptation measures
include the components required to ensure that the Alliance can fully address
the security challenges it might face. We will significantly enhance the
responsiveness of our NATO Response Force (NRF) by developing force packages
that are able to move rapidly and respond to potential challenges and threats.
As part of it, we will establish a Very High Readiness Joint Task Force (VJTF),
a new Allied joint force that will be able to deploy within a few days to
respond to challenges that arise, particularly at the periphery of NATO’s
territory........(13)
Important desicions were adopted during the Warshaw Summit too, which
was held in 2016. At the final declaration, it was mentioned about new security
environment in the Euro-Atlantic area. Particularly:
“There is an arc of insecurity and instability along NATO's periphery and beyond. The Alliance faces a range of security challenges and threats that originate both from the east and from the south; from state and non-state actors; from military forces and from terrorist, cyber, or hybrid attacks. Russia's aggressive actions, including provocative military activities in the periphery of NATO territory and its demonstrated willingness to attain political goals by the threat and use of force, are a source of regional instability, fundamentally challenge the Alliance, have damaged Euro-Atlantic security, and threaten our long-standing goal of a Europe whole, free, and at peace (14).
“There is an arc of insecurity and instability along NATO's periphery and beyond. The Alliance faces a range of security challenges and threats that originate both from the east and from the south; from state and non-state actors; from military forces and from terrorist, cyber, or hybrid attacks. Russia's aggressive actions, including provocative military activities in the periphery of NATO territory and its demonstrated willingness to attain political goals by the threat and use of force, are a source of regional instability, fundamentally challenge the Alliance, have damaged Euro-Atlantic security, and threaten our long-standing goal of a Europe whole, free, and at peace (14).
Consequences of the policy of NATO in the Black Sea Region
after occupation of Crimea
Due to the increasing the tentions, Secretary
General of NATO Yens Stoltenberg declared about the possibility to increase the
military capabilities of the Alliance in the Black Sea Region. Countries of the
NATO have declared about their readiness to strengthen their contingents in the
Baltic Region and Eastern Europe.
Great Britain, Germany and USA have
declared about their plans to send in the Eastern Europe and Baltic Region the
battalions of their military personnel, for the preventing the possible
“invasion” from the Russian side. As it was mentioned the news paper of “The
Telegraph”, in Bulgaria, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania and Estonia can be
sent 500-1000 militaries for the showing before the Russia, that any
interference in the “Ukrainian style” will have the reply from the NATO side. The discussion deals with the forces of
the special operations, which are armed with anti-aircraft
missiles, helicopters and attack aircraft (15).
During the meeting of
the Ministers of Defenseof NATO alliance
countries in Brussels, Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg
immediately stated about the strengthening of the capabilities of
the military forces of alliance in the Black
Sea region, “including Naval Forces and facilities
of reconnaissance and opportunity for the transfer
of reinforcements”, and also about the plans
of the restraining “hybrid threats” in East Europe by
“small forces”.
“NATO already strengthened its maritime
presence in the Black Sea, including Naval forces and
observation from the aircraft-radars of AWACS,
which are located in Romania, Bulgaria and
Turkey. We constantly control situation in the
Black sea and are increasing our military opportunities
and also the opportunity of conducting of reconnaissance
and transfer of reinforcements to this region”. According
to the Secretary General, we implement the most important strengthening of our
collective defense after the ending of the “Cold War” (15).
Deployment of the American Military Objects in the Black Sea
Region
Due to the increasing the tensions, the
number of the NATO Responce Forces has been increased for the three times, till
the 40 000 military servicemen (17). From its turn, under the Obama
Administration, “White House” declared about releasing about 4 Billion USD for
the preventing the “Russian agression”. For the resistance to the Russian
aggression and support of the European Allies: Budget includes 4,4 Billion USD
for the political, economic and public diplomacy, and also military support,
for the decreasing the Russian opportunities for the implementation aggression
of Russia against NATO alliances, and partner states in Europe, Eurasia and
Central Asia (18).
Even before the Ukrainian crisis, within
the framework of the realization of Naval
concept “Sea Power 21” during the period
2005-2010, USA substantially strengthened their military
presence in the Western Black Sea area by the
development the systems of military bases in
Romania and Bulgaria. In December 2005, Romania and
in April 2006 Bulgaria signed with
the USA agreements about the collaboration in the
sphere of defense, which provide the deployment
on the territory of these countries American
military bases for their using as the
intermediate strong points on the way from Europe
to Afghanistan and Iraq (during the deployment of US Forces
at those states).
Romanian military objects
near the city Constanta (airfield and the training
range) practically became the base of
the USA and NATO. On the airfield were deployed fighters F-15 and F-16 and
also attack aircraft A-10 of the USAF (United States
Air Force). According to some data, there were deployed about
2500 US Soldiers (19). American contingent also actively used ranges
in Chinku and Smardan. In the military contingent were included
the subdivisions of marines, aviation, technical subdivision as
a component part of the south European forces of NATO.
In Bulgaria, up to
the signing of the agreement, USA
could use a base of Air Forces into Sarafovo and and
port Burgas on the Black Sea coast. According to
the agreement, American military bases were placed in Novo-Selo
Region, on the airfield in Bezmere
(both objects are located not far from the boundary with
Turkey) and airfield in the Graph-Ignatyeva (near
Plovdiv). On these objects are stationed the units of
the Armed Forces of the United
States and Bulgaria. The arrangement of weapon of
mass destruction in bases of USA in Romania and
Bulgaria is excluded.
Before the crimea crisis, US
troops were already placed on a constant basis in
Turkey (for example air bases in Incirlik) and Greece (for
example air base of Iraklion).
In 2010,
Washington began the implementation of
the program of the military trainings of Black Sea Rotational
Forces (BSRF), in which had to be participated about
250 marines, “task of whom became the
maintenance of the positive relations with the friendly
nations, strengthening the
stability in the region, and
also improvement in interaction for the providing the
operational reaction to the crises in the Black
Sea, Balkan and Caucasian regions”. Besides
BSRF, for the conducting the transit operations,
USA stationed 500 soldiers in Romania on the air
base “Mikhail Kogelnichanu”. In Ukraine the Western
countries took measures for the support of Kyiv
during the crisis on Donbass. In April 2015,
USA sent to the West Ukraine 290 military
advisers (operation of Fearless Guardian) for the six months
period (20).
Canada sent to Ukraine 200 military
sertvicemen till the March 2017 (21), Great Britain sent to the city Nikolaev
on the South of Ukraine 35 advisers for the giving the consultations to the
Ukrainian Militaries. Besides, Washington made the decision to deliver to
Ukraine 1200 units of teqnique, including 250 Tanks M1-A2,
the combat vehicles Bradley and also armored
howitzers for their deployement in the regions, near the front line
(22).
The part of these combat units can
be stationed in Romania or Bulgaria. The USA
and other members of NATO were presented
in the Black sea
on the semipermanent basis since March 2014 and periodically carried out the
international Naval studies, such as Sea
Breeze (September 2015). In
Georgia there are no permanent American troops, however,
there are conducted the joint Georgian-American
military maneuvers: in May 2015, 600
American soldiers participated in the exercises “Noble
Partner”(23).
Conclusions and Recommendations
Together with the military presence, for the providing
the further enlargement of Democracy, Western democratic values, providing
security in the Black Sea Area etc. NATO and western democratic society should
provide:
-
Maximal
support in the implementation democratic reforms and promoting integration to
the western democratic society those states, whose foreign policy and national
security priorities are the establishment closer relations with the west. For
example, to get consensus for the admission of Georgia and Ukraine to NATO and
further integration to the European structures of those states;
-
Transformation of NATO and EU
to the organizations with more Global functions. For the democracy enlargement,
it is necessary to provide security in the different regions of the World. In
this regard it should be mentioned about the role of NATO and EU in this
process. Taking into account, that both organizations first of all represent
not politico-military and security (in case of NATO) and economic (in case of
EU) organizations, but they are international regional communities of the
democratic states, based on the same values – Superiority of the law and
respect and protection the fundamental principles of human rights. Furthermore,
taking into consideration the limited resources of UN and problems (as it was
mentioned above)– related to the adoption of the decisions within the Unites
Nations related to the providing peace and security, it represent the great
importance to increase the role, functions and geographical area of actions of
NATO and EU;
-
Information Campaign - Providing information campaign in the
partner countries of the Black Sea Region for the increasing the public
awareness on NATO and EU, their positive role in the providing economic
prosperity, peace and security;
Together with the opening by USA and
NATO new military objects on the territories of NATO member states and partners
in the Black Sea Region, the Alliance should take into consideration the
strengthening of its presence at the marine space of the Black Sea by the
implementation of the security and antiterrorist operation similar to “Active
Endevoir” program in the Mediterranian. In this regard, it should be taken into
cosideration the main principles of the Montreux Convention Particularly:
“The convention was adopted in 1936 and
limits during the peace period the passing through the Bospore and Dardanell
channels the passing of the military ships of the non-Black Sea countries.
Limitation of
the class of ships and
general tonnage from the moment of their
approach into the marine area - 15,000 tons.
Furthermore, there are
indicated limits for the one-time presence in the Black sea: 30,000 tons for all
non Black Sea Region`s countries, together, with a
corresponding increase in this limit, but not more
than 45,000 tons in the of an increase in the
tonnage of the Black Sea fleet by 10,000 or more
tons. Also, there is
limitation of the period of a stay
in the marine area — three
weeks. The countries, which have entrance to the
Black sea, in a number
of cases can pass
through the straits their submarines and also large
ships without the limitation of tonnage with
the protection the specified conditions, which are determined by the convention” (24).
Accordingly, NATO member states should
create the convenient base for the cooperation with member of the Alliance
Turkey, which should provide the passage of the military ships throught the
channels, which are located on its territory.
Increasing the military presence in the
Black Sea Region, will create the convenient base for the more secured
implementation of the economic and energy projects in the Region, further
socio-economic development of the Region and resolving the conflicts in the
long-term perspective by peaceful means.
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25, 2015
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https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/apr/20/us-paratroopers-begin-training-national-guard-units-in-ukraine
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