The South Caucasus Regional Security Scenarios Development

 

The South Caucasus Regional Security Scenarios Development

 

By Professor Vakhtang Maisaia

 

Historically, the South Caucasus has been playing a significant role for establishing and developing the economic relations between Europe and Asia. After the trilateral agreement amongst Azerbaijan, Armenia and Russia, which led to a complete ceasefire and a cessation of all hostilities on November 10^th of 2020, new geo-economic opportunities have been established in the South Caucasus region. Thanks to the trilateral agreement, the normalization of the relations between Turkey, Azerbaijan and Armenia and the potential for economic cooperation has emerged in the region. Hence, developments throughout the past two years show that there is a mutual interest in all South Caucasus countries for further establishing and expanding the trade and economic cooperation across border lines through establishing new opportunities. Therefore, it is suggested to promote the regional socioeconomic reconciliation and cooperation programs for the sustainable peace in the region. Additionally, Armenian borders with Turkey have been closed since 1993 due to the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. However, in the post-conflict period there is also a new solid opportunity for the recovery of Turkey-Armenia economic relations, too. Having considered above mentioned geopolitical confrontation between the actors of the Caucasus region and even confrontation lines among three regional hegemons: Iran, Russia and Turkey and with attempt of outside regional actors, like the USA and EU (mainly with France engagement and with weak involvement of Germany – German Foreign Affairs Minister Annalena Baerbock just lately paid official visit in Georgia and criticized the current Georgian government for pursuing anti-Western foreign policy and that was only the mission) attempts to have their influence in the region, the situation in the South Caucasus more strain and would be deteriorated further on. In this case, several scenarios could be perceived in nearest future, probably even in long term but even in short term the geopolitical landscape in the region would be detrimental to international security perspectives. Let’s consider the period of for 2 years period and review the scenarios development cases: 

The First Scenario – Military Confrontation Development: recent processes taken places in the South Caucasus mainly in conjunction with so-called “Zangezur Corridor” (see in more detail below Case-study) and Nagorno Karabakh problem where two peacekeeper missions are available – the Russian Federation military contingent and the EU Military Monitoring Mission operate. Regarding the “Zangezur Corridor” where Iran and Azerbaijan and with together Armenia interests are being intertwisted. However, Azerbaijan and Iran are at the edge of war wagging and in nearest future low intensity military conflict could be developed. Iran allied with Armenia and even can provide military assistance and even provoke a small scale military intervention in order to provide its military interests in order to defender “Zangezur Corridor” bordering between Azerbaijan and Iran. By the way, on April 9 of 2023 two high level officials of Iran and Armenia met in Tehran – Secretary to National Security Council of Armenia, “grey cardinal” of the Armenian politics Armen Grigorian and Secretary to Supreme Council of National Security of Iran Islamic Republic Ali Shamkhani. By the way, namely Ali Shamkhani noted that if geographical changes occurs in the region, it will be linked with military conflict and he certainly deems Azerbaijan Armed Forces attempts to seize “Zangezur Corridor” and even in Nagorno Karabakh so-called “Lachin Corridor” connected the Nagorno Karabakh region with Armenia and now being under controlled by the Russian peacekeepers. Iranian Special Revolutionary Islamic Guard Corp military formations have been converted on military readiness level#1 across the border with Azerbaijan. The situation deterioration between Iran and Azerbaijan formally started when the Azerbaijan opened its diplomatic mission – Embassy in Israel and launched strategic partnership cooperation with the country. In conjunction with more deterioration situation in the Middle East region between Israel and Iran either in Syria, Lebanon or in Gaza sector and if Israel starts realize its plan on Air Strategic Offense on Iran in order to suspend its nuclear project, the situation would be strained in the South Caucasus. Hence, alliance conflict could be inflamed with proper ones: Turkey-Azerbaijan-Pakistan vs. Russia-Iran-Armenia. At time being, Turkey is refraining with engaging in conflict scenario with Iran unless the Presidential elections are held on May 14, 2023. However, the regional security current modality: 3+3 (Armenia, Georgia, Azerbaijan as local actors and regional hegemons – Russia, Iran and Turkey) is the only one fragile stability fora but anyway the military confrontation stage is very real to develop;

The Second Scenario – Geoeconomic War between Russia and USA in the region: the scenario and confrontation between two global powers the USA and Russia is very real one and linked with realization of proper geoeconomic projects – Russia promoted “North-South Transit Corridor” from Sankt-Petersburg till Mumbai (India) and the USA promoted also “North-South” Transit Road in case of “Three Sea Concept” with domination in the Black Sea Region. Hence, the Russia-USA geoeconomic war is very real one and could strain the geopolitical landscape in the region. Both powers are confronting to get direct access to China mega-geoeconomic project “One Belt, One Road” with around $1 trillion. The confrontation line is being dwelled in realization so-called “Anaklia Sea Port” project and the USA also launched its geopolitical game. On March 15, 2023 the Senate adopted new “Black Sea Security Act” where the official Washington declared as its privileged geopolitical zone the Black Sea Basin and submitted the proper strategy how to realize the Act. Hence, the geoeconomic war between Russia and the USA is actually de-facto underway already. The scenario is being developed in real case and who wins the game situation determined.

 

Case-Study of the Regional Instability Scenario: Zangezur Corridor: A Way for the Economic Integration and Impacts on Regional Peace

It is highly believed that through economic cooperation and integration, Azerbaijan and Armenia can open a new page in bilateral relations and end hostility between two states. Foremost, the implementation of the Zangezur corridor will increase the regional economic integration with the collaboration of the region countries including Azerbaijan, Turkey and Armenia. Hence, along with the economic integration amongst the region countries, the new corridor will form the mutual economic interdependence and trigger to shape a stronger foundation for the future peace. One of the significant contributions of the Zangezur Corridor is that it will create new geo-economic conditions in the region. Thus, the Zangezur Corridor envisages not only the opening of the railway routes between Azerbaijan and Armenia, but also the operation of roads, airlines and energy and electricity lines along this transport artery.

 

The new corridor will boost the development opportunities of the economic markets in the region. Thus, the growth of the trade and economic ties, along with the production, will promote import and export operations between the region countries. The impact of the new corridor on the development of not only transit trade, but also regional trade and production will be of vital significant. Hence, there are products in which all three countries of the South Caucasus specialize, and there is a demand for these products in the countries of the region. As a result of it, the revival of the domestic trade will directly expand the integration of inter countries trade and production in the region. For example, Armenia, which may import oil and gas products, electricity, various agricultural products, etc. from Azerbaijan, will have the opportunity to export metals and a large number of agricultural products and etc. to the opposite direction. Consequently, as a result of the opening of communications, it is more likely to increase the trade volume amongst the region countries, and thousands of new jobs will be created. 

 

In the short term, electricity transmission from Azerbaijan to Nakhichevan via the Corridor, and in the long term and perhaps in the medium term, the transportation of Caspian energy resources to Europe via this corridor may be actualized. Such projects will strengthen regional integration.

 

In the short term, new Corridor will support the economic development of cities and regions along the corridor, which will make a significant contribution to the development of trade and job creation, poverty reduction, youth employment, and the development of small and medium enterprises in the region. In this respect, the project will make a significant contribution to the development of Zangezur region of Armenia and the central city of Kapan, its remote rural areas and the Nakhichevan region of Azerbaijan. In general, the areas where the Zangezur Corridor passes, is considered a dispersed settlement and higher emigration regions compared to the other parts of the region. In particular, it should be noted that one of the main directions and destination of emigration from the region is Eastern Europe and Russia, which is expected decreasing remittances to the region in the future. Thus, this the corridor becomes important in terms of poverty reduction, too.

 

The Zangezur Corridor: Key Instability Spot for the Regional Security

 

Undoubtedly, the benefits of the new corridor for each country can be considered in different aspects beside the general economic benefits of it. Geography as well as the road and railway infrastructure inherited from the Soviet Union render Armenia an obvious hub in land and railway communications between Turkey, the Caucasus, Russia and Central Asia. Armenia is now a dead-end, and railways operate at 15 % of their capacity. As a result of the opening of the Corridor, Armenia could improve its trade relations with Central Asia, Russia, Iran and China through Azerbaijan’s transport routes, and Azerbaijan with the European Union and Turkey. Additionally, thanks to the new Corridor Armenia will get the shorter and optimal railway access to the European markets through Zangezur, Azerbaijan (Nakhichevan) and Turkey. It will also support the return of the IDPs to the liberated Azerbaijani lands and the future development of the region in the post-war period. 

 

The capacity of Armenia’s 44-kilometer border with the sanctioned Iranian economy is limited. Also taking into account the seasonal factors, The Upper Lars checkpoint of Georgia, the only access to the Russia which is the main trading partner of Armenia, has low potential. The closure of land routes between Georgia and Russia, which occur periodically, considerably blocks Armenia’s most important land communication with the rest of the world. Therefore, the new Corridor will create a new chance for Armenia to make use of Mediterranean seaports. In 2001, the World Bank suggested that Armenian export could double if the country’s borders with both Turkey and Azerbaijan were opened. The specific circumstances of the border opening would clearly play an important role in the exact rise in trade volumes. The following quote from Vahan Kerobyan, the Minister of Economy of Armenia, can be cited as a significant example in terms of the value that the new corridor and regional integration will bring to the Armenian economy: 

Opening the borders will provide wide opportunities. Our exporters will be able to export their products to Russia or other countries through more convenient roads than we have now. Turkish ports will be open to us, and man wide opportunities will be provided. It’s possible that the Azerbaijani market will be open for us and ours for them. For Turkey, the reopening of the Zangezur corridor has a geostrategic significance as Ankara will get a direct land connection to mainland Azerbaijan. Furthermore, the corridor will boost trade between Turkey and Azerbaijan by further supporting economic integration. Additionally, it should be noted that the Turkish trucks mainly use Russia-Georgia routes before heading to Central Asia, currently. Thus, taking into account that Turkey is very interested in having a direct access to the Central Asian markets through Azerbaijan because such route would be shorter and cheaper, the importance of the Corridor rises.

For Russia, the reopening of the corridor will open a railway route to Armenia via Azerbaijan which is cheaper and more profitable because of tension and mutual mistrust in relations between Moscow and Tbilisi. 

 Although the climate context is somewhat different, the importance of this issue for the climate security of the region countries is especially high at a time when climate change is becoming one of the main threats to the whole world. The Zangezur corridor will also have a positive impact on the implementation of the sustainable development goals for both countries. Currently, the trade amongst Armenia and the European Union, Russia, Central Asian countries, and as well as amongst Azerbaijan and Turkey and European countries is mainly carried out by road and longer alternative routes. Trade operations through railways, which take less time and omit less carbon, will undoubtedly contribute to the green economic development of the region. Thus, the new Corridor meet with the requirement of the modern trends and plays a unifying role to tackle global threats jointly.

 Consequently, the analysis of the new Corridor in terms of peace and economic integration in the region will produce the following results:

Stakeholders	Meeting interests
Turkey	will be directly connected to Azerbaijan and the Turkic nations in Central Asia.
Azerbaijan	will be able to end the blockade of the Nakhchivan AR and alternative routes to Turkey and EU.
Armenia	will get a shortest and lasting land link to Russia, a new rail connection to Iran and reach the markets of the Eurasian Economic Union and EU through alternative routes.
Iran	will have more efficient access to the Black Sea and the Mediterranean ports through the new communication arteries.
European Union	Trade and logistics channels for the EU with China will be expanded through alternative transport logistics corridors, which has an annual trade turnover of approximately 600 billion euros. Additionally, an alternative and more secure route for the bilateral relation with South Caucasus countries through Turkey.
Russia	will get a direct land link to Armenia, one of its main economic partners in the region.

As one can see from the above-mentioned facts, the Zangezur Corridor comes from the strategic interests of all involved parties. Plagued by proxy disputes between the region’s big neighbors, the South Caucasus has almost no historical experience of collaboration, except the abovementioned ones. Thus, in the view of the importance of the New Corridor for both regional integration and peacekeeping, as it is known the Zangezur Corridor will create the short-

est and direct transport link between Armenia-Russia, Armenia-Iran, Armenia-Turkey by rail and road using the existing infrastructure of Azerbaijan. Undoubtedly, in this case, different regional stakeholders will also contribute to the sustainable peace in the region. It is due to the fact that the Zangezur Corridor probably is the most pragmatic project in the conditions of current realities that meets the interests of everyone and deepen regional integration.