The USA Influence over the Central Asia and the South Caucasus: Kazakhstan Gambit

 

The USA Influence over the Central Asia and the South Caucasus: Kazakhstan Gambit

Professor Vakhtang Maisaia 

Due to wargame scenario between Russia and Ukraine and the Kremlin’s inability to subdue the Ukrainian sovereignty by political and military means, the USA begins to try reinforce its geopolitical influence in the Central Asia. The influence steadily decreased when the USA failed its mission in Afghanistan and steadily forged to run away asap. After Pakistan successful coup d’état promotion and deposition of anti-American prime-minister Imra Han and possibility to regain its geopolitical status-quo over Pakistan, the USA Biden Administration launches new geopolitical project: “Caucasus-Caspian regional hegemony”. The process was starting just recently when all of sudden after January turmoil events, the USA Under-Secretary Uzra Zey, who is dealing with human right protection, public security and democracy affairs, officially visited to Kazakhstan and later on in Kyrgyzstan. The two visits were interesting as it seems so that the visit was some like “reconnaissance with fight” or introduction-preliminary study visit for more higher official delegation for probing local political elite for possible partnership development case-study with incumbent Bide Administration and an opportunity to influence on the Russia’s most trustworthy allies to downgrade and make a hint in relations between Moscow and the Central Asian capitals. In this regard to be mentioned and this is confirmed by the local Kazakh keynote political analysts and experts that the Uzar Zey was met not by high-level Kazakh and Kyrgyz officials, even at level of Minister of Foreign Affairs or even the President one as it had occurred in the past but at the medium level and she was met with Deputy Foreign Affairs Minister Akan Rakhmatulin. Moreover, she met with State Secretary of Republic of Kazakhstan Erlan Karin and Almaya-ati Akim (Mayor of the city) Erbolat Dosaev. This was low-level officials as the USA policy-makers were used to be exploited before. That is important to considering that incumbent President Tokaev’s Administration is looking toward the USA policy-makes with much more cautious approaches taking into account the “Russian” factor. This meeting was configured interesting point as it was discussing anti-sanction policy toward Russia and a possibility of Kazakhstan joining to one. Moreover, in Nur-Sultan it was meeting with NGO organization representatives who were receiving financial assistance from USAID developing “third sector”, human right protection and ethnic minority rights. As for the Kazakhstan visit, the local Kazakh political analysts does not consider as those one which could reinforce the USA foreign policy reinforcement in Kazakhstan and in the Central Asia as whole, however, it make possible to Tokhaev’s Administration for performing splendid maneuvering geopolitical behaviors and avoiding completely dependence on only Russia’s decisions. Tokhayev’s political authority steadily has been reinforcing its positions after the January coup d’état attempt and provided full pledge support from the Kremlin, is trying to exploit its cunning foreign policy options and the visit was used to push through light pressure on Moscow and tailored the opportunity to demonstrate its rigidness and play interesting game on edge of fierce confrontation between Washington and Moscow with transposition into real hybrid war between the actors. The signals and steps forward as soon as the USA Under-Secretary Zey left the country. These were demonstrated by the following concrete facts:

Ø  First time when Tokhayev came to power on May 1, the Kazakhstan government allowed anti-Russian protest rally in favour to Ukrainian support organized by local nationalistic NGOs. This is interesting indication of the transformation on political agenda;

Ø  The Kazakh government banned celebration May 9 Soviet holiday and the restrictions were imposed on holding military parade. This is also interesting implication too;

Ø  Kazakhstan together with Azerbaijan, Turkey and Georgia composed of and signing the special memorandum on promotion of “East-West” energy and transit corridor that implies increasing of Caspian energy resource delivery to the EU member countries and by doing so, making possible to avoid Russian energy sanction on gas and oil delivery to the EU itself;

Ø  Some Kazakh officials even expressed a sympathy toward Ukraine and clandestine criticized incumbent Kremlin intervention into Ukraine;  

Ø  Mrs. Zey also expressed full support to President Tokhayev’s political reforms and expressed promise that USA deliberately taking more easy position on Kazakhstan position developing with Russia economic and trade relations but promised to provide alternative economic assistance against Russia. It means that the USA will exploit its “soft power” in order to more increase influence on Tokhayev’s authority and launches its own game in the Central Asia with calculation Kazakhstan as key geopolitical “hub” for further promotion the USA national interests at the regional level.

Despite of the game, Kazakhstan at this time a bit distanced from the USA re-approachment position but yet to. No any preliminary agreements and memorandums were not reached and complied with as it was happened with Kyrgyzstan. As it was pointed by Kyrgyz political analyst Mars Sariev thought that the visit of the Zey was to probe open so-called “Second Front” against Russia from the Central Asia. The same opinion was even declared by the incumbent Ukrainian leaders, like President’s Aide on Defense Stephan Aristovich and leader of the Parliamentary ruling party “People’s Server” and Key negotiator with Russia David Arakhamia vows on opening the “Second Front” against Russia from the South Caucasus, namely from Georgia but the incumbent Georgian Prime-minister Irakli Garibashvili radically rejected the option and mentioned that no any “Second Front” is to be possible from Georgia. However, in Kyrgyzstan, Mrs. Zey met with more high level officials regarding in Kazakhstan. For instance, she hold meeting with Vice-Premier of the government Edil Baysalov and with Foreign Affairs Minister Ruslan Kazkbaev. During her meetings with these officials, she proposed to arrange and sign up new economic and technical agreements on strategic cooperation that were arranged in 2015 but were denounced by the Kyrgyzstan government due to some political reasons. The proposal has also reflected how important is for the USA government regain and restore its presence in the Central Asia and creating special geopolitical areas of presence. By the way, the same positions remains for the South Caucasus region. For instance, on April 26-28 of 2022, in Baku was held special meeting with USA Ambassadors in Georgia, Azerbaijan, Armenia and Turkey with directly involvement of Mr. Eric Olson, USA Under-Secretary on Eurasia and European Affairs, Deputy Head of USAID Mark Simakovsky, Interim Head of Coordination of Assistance USA to Europe and Eurasia Mr.Greg Haarden and Special Negotiator to the Caucasus Mr. Andriu Shoffer. What was about the meeting session is still unknown and everything is to be clear very soon.

 

27.09.2022 Tbilisi Georgia