The USA Influence over the Central Asia and the South Caucasus: Kazakhstan Gambit
Professor Vakhtang Maisaia
Due to wargame scenario between Russia and Ukraine
and the Kremlin’s inability to subdue the Ukrainian sovereignty by political
and military means, the USA begins to try reinforce its geopolitical influence
in the Central Asia. The influence steadily decreased when the USA failed its
mission in Afghanistan and steadily forged to run away asap. After Pakistan
successful coup d’état promotion and deposition of anti-American prime-minister
Imra Han and possibility to regain its geopolitical status-quo over Pakistan,
the USA Biden Administration launches new geopolitical project:
“Caucasus-Caspian regional hegemony”. The process was starting just recently
when all of sudden after January turmoil events, the USA Under-Secretary Uzra
Zey, who is dealing with human right protection, public security and democracy
affairs, officially visited to Kazakhstan and later on in Kyrgyzstan. The two
visits were interesting as it seems so that the visit was some like
“reconnaissance with fight” or introduction-preliminary study visit for more
higher official delegation for probing local political elite for possible
partnership development case-study with incumbent Bide Administration and an
opportunity to influence on the Russia’s most trustworthy allies to downgrade
and make a hint in relations between Moscow and the Central Asian capitals. In
this regard to be mentioned and this is confirmed by the local Kazakh keynote
political analysts and experts that the Uzar Zey was met not by high-level
Kazakh and Kyrgyz officials, even at level of Minister of Foreign Affairs or
even the President one as it had occurred in the past but at the medium level
and she was met with Deputy Foreign Affairs Minister Akan Rakhmatulin. Moreover,
she met with State Secretary of Republic of Kazakhstan Erlan Karin and
Almaya-ati Akim (Mayor of the city) Erbolat Dosaev. This was low-level
officials as the USA policy-makers were used to be exploited before. That is
important to considering that incumbent President Tokaev’s Administration is
looking toward the USA policy-makes with much more cautious approaches taking
into account the “Russian” factor. This meeting was configured interesting
point as it was discussing anti-sanction policy toward Russia and a possibility
of Kazakhstan joining to one. Moreover, in Nur-Sultan it was meeting with NGO
organization representatives who were receiving financial assistance from USAID
developing “third sector”, human right protection and ethnic minority rights. As
for the Kazakhstan visit, the local Kazakh political analysts does not consider
as those one which could reinforce the USA foreign policy reinforcement in
Kazakhstan and in the Central Asia as whole, however, it make possible to
Tokhaev’s Administration for performing splendid maneuvering geopolitical
behaviors and avoiding completely dependence on only Russia’s decisions.
Tokhayev’s political authority steadily has been reinforcing its positions
after the January coup d’état attempt and provided full pledge support from the
Kremlin, is trying to exploit its cunning foreign policy options and the visit
was used to push through light pressure on Moscow and tailored the opportunity
to demonstrate its rigidness and play interesting game on edge of fierce
confrontation between Washington and Moscow with transposition into real hybrid
war between the actors. The signals and steps forward as soon as the USA
Under-Secretary Zey left the country. These were demonstrated by the following
concrete facts:
Ø First time when Tokhayev
came to power on May 1, the Kazakhstan government allowed anti-Russian protest
rally in favour to Ukrainian support organized by local nationalistic NGOs.
This is interesting indication of the transformation on political agenda;
Ø The Kazakh government
banned celebration May 9 Soviet holiday and the restrictions were imposed on
holding military parade. This is also interesting implication too;
Ø Kazakhstan together with
Azerbaijan, Turkey and Georgia composed of and signing the special memorandum
on promotion of “East-West” energy and transit corridor that implies increasing
of Caspian energy resource delivery to the EU member countries and by doing so,
making possible to avoid Russian energy sanction on gas and oil delivery to the
EU itself;
Ø Some Kazakh officials even
expressed a sympathy toward Ukraine and clandestine criticized incumbent
Kremlin intervention into Ukraine;
Ø Mrs. Zey also expressed
full support to President Tokhayev’s political reforms and expressed promise
that USA deliberately taking more easy position on Kazakhstan position
developing with Russia economic and trade relations but promised to provide
alternative economic assistance against Russia. It means that the USA will
exploit its “soft power” in order to more increase influence on Tokhayev’s
authority and launches its own game in the Central Asia with calculation
Kazakhstan as key geopolitical “hub” for further promotion the USA national
interests at the regional level.
Despite of the game, Kazakhstan at this time a bit
distanced from the USA re-approachment position but yet to. No any preliminary
agreements and memorandums were not reached and complied with as it was
happened with Kyrgyzstan. As it was pointed by Kyrgyz political analyst Mars
Sariev thought that the visit of the Zey was to probe open so-called “Second
Front” against Russia from the Central Asia. The same opinion was even declared
by the incumbent Ukrainian leaders, like President’s Aide on Defense Stephan
Aristovich and leader of the Parliamentary ruling party “People’s Server” and
Key negotiator with Russia David Arakhamia vows on opening the “Second Front”
against Russia from the South Caucasus, namely from Georgia but the incumbent
Georgian Prime-minister Irakli Garibashvili radically rejected the option and
mentioned that no any “Second Front” is to be possible from Georgia. However,
in Kyrgyzstan, Mrs. Zey met with more high level officials regarding in
Kazakhstan. For instance, she hold meeting with Vice-Premier of the government
Edil Baysalov and with Foreign Affairs Minister Ruslan Kazkbaev. During her
meetings with these officials, she proposed to arrange and sign up new economic
and technical agreements on strategic cooperation that were arranged in 2015
but were denounced by the Kyrgyzstan government due to some political reasons.
The proposal has also reflected how important is for the USA government regain
and restore its presence in the Central Asia and creating special geopolitical
areas of presence. By the way, the same positions remains for the South
Caucasus region. For instance, on April 26-28 of 2022, in Baku was held special
meeting with USA Ambassadors in Georgia, Azerbaijan, Armenia and Turkey with
directly involvement of Mr. Eric Olson, USA Under-Secretary on Eurasia and
European Affairs, Deputy Head of USAID Mark Simakovsky, Interim Head of Coordination
of Assistance USA to Europe and Eurasia Mr.Greg Haarden and Special Negotiator
to the Caucasus Mr. Andriu Shoffer. What was about the meeting session is still
unknown and everything is to be clear very soon.
27.09.2022
Tbilisi Georgia
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