Returning Taliban to power in Afghanistan and its impact on International Security

 Returning Taliban to power in Afghanistan and its impact on International Security

By: Fethullah Dindarol 

Senior Student of the Bachelor Program

Specialty: International relations

Researcher and participant of the Internship program of the Center for International Studies

Before coming to the topic of the Return of the Taliban, we should all know what is the Taliban and what they are aiming for.

The Taliban is a radical terrorist group that emerged in Afghanistan in 1994 by  Muhammad Umar. From 1996 to 2001, the Taliban held power over roughly three-quarters of Afghanistan. The Taliban emerged in 1994 as one of the prominent factions in the Afghan Civil War and largely consisted of students (Talib) from the Pashtun areas of eastern and southern Afghanistan and fought during the Soviet-Afghan War. In 1996, the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan was founded, and the Afghan capital was relocated to Kandahar. It ruled over the majority of the nation until it was removed during the American-led invasion of Afghanistan in December 2001 in response to the September 11 attacks. Internal funding is provided by the group's actions in the illicit drug trade, which include the production and trafficking of drugs such as heroin, extortion, abduction, and ransom. They also took control of mining activities that were unlawful under the previous administration in the mid-2010s.

The Taliban dominated Afghanistan in an infamously cruel manner and harbored al-Qaida, a global terrorist movement that carried out the largest terrorist attack in the historical past against the United States, urging the US invasion in 2001 and 20 years of military presence that ended in August 2021.

The Taliban leadership is keen to allay the worries of Afghan people and the international world, who recall what occurred the last time the Taliban was in control. People are naturally skeptical about al-possibilities, like Al- Qaida's as well as the threat of international fundamentalist terrorism in general.

The Taliban's comeback will benefit worldwide religious extremism in a variety of ways.

First and foremost, it represents a significant triumph for al-Qaida. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has stated that allowing al-Qaida to utilize Afghanistan as a center for worldwide terrorist strikes, as it occurred in the late 1990s and early 2000s, is "not in their self-interest."

Despite the years of military assault, the Coalition was never able to entirely cleanse Afghanistan of al-Qaida, and the Taliban have never abandoned their connections with al-Qaida in return for increased political authority in any of the several efforts at negotiation. They are strongly interconnected with ideology and for a religious government agenda. Not only are the Taliban and al-Qaida theoretically connected, but al-Qaida militants in Afghanistan have merged with the Taliban during the period of the United States' "global war on terror." Former al-Qaida foreign forces have established permanent residence in Afghanistan, cementing their bond via intermarriage and combined military experience. Despite officially rejecting it, the Taliban continues to retain active links with al-Qaida, per the evaluations by both the UN Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team and the US Inspector General. Al-Qaida is currently sitting low, awaiting further instructions from the Taliban as they solidify authority and ensure the exit of Western troops is complete.

However, the commander of US Central Command, Gen Kenneth McKenzie, believes that "if left untouched, al - Qaeda would surely rebuild, re-strengthen themselves, and we have no reason to doubt they...want to strike us in our country."

With such a new safe harbor in Afghanistan, al-Qaida now has the space, infrastructure, militants, and weaponry to launch a global campaign of terror, notably in Southeast Asia and the Middle East. Afghanistan has the potential to become a destination for fundamentalist foreign fighters once more. Second, the Taliban's comeback will energize another terrorist organization stalwart, the Islamic State, a competitor to al-Qaida. The Taliban and al-Qaida must also deal with other rival jihadists in their presence, namely as an Isis offshoot called as Islamic State in Khorasan (ISISK), which has intensified its assaults in recent months in preparation of the upcoming elections.

In terms of how costly has the war been, it is difficult to estimate the number of lives lost. The number of coalition casualties is significantly higher than the number of Taliban and Afghan civilians. According to Brown University research, the Afghan security services have suffered 69,000 casualties. It estimates that around 51,000 civilians and militants have been killed. Since 2001, about 3,500 coalition soldiers have been killed, with around two-thirds of them being Americans. Over 20,000 US troops have been wounded. As reported by the United Nations, Afghanistan has the world's third-largest uprooted population. Since 2012, around five million people have left and have been unable to return home, either internally displaced inside Afghanistan or seeking shelter in neighboring countries. According to a Brown University study, the US would spend $978 billion on the fight up to 2020, including military and infrastructure aids in both Afghanistan and Pakistan.

The Taliban's triumph validates the terrorist movement's strategic composure. The disgraceful and anarchic way in which the US left Afghanistan, leaving its allies in the Afghan military and treating the security of Afghan people with callous disregard, provided a tremendous propaganda boost to the terrorist movement's cause.

In terms of the future of Afghanistan, how the Taliban plan to govern this country remains unclear. Suhail Shaheen, a Taliban spokesperson, says the organization would protect women's and minorities' rights "as per Afghan traditions and Islamic principles. "The militants announced an amnesty across Afghanistan and stated that they wanted women to join their administration. However, there are concerns about women's ability to work, leave their homes alone under Taliban control.

Another significant concern is that the country may become a training ground for terrorists once more. Taliban leaders stress that they would completely comply with the US agreement and prohibit any organization from utilizing Afghan territory as a base for strikes against the US and its allies. They claim that their main goal is to establish an "Islamic government" and that they would not constitute a danger to any other country. Many experts, however, believe the Taliban and al-Qaeda are inextricably linked, with the latter's fighters extensively integrated and involved in training activities.

 

 

Literature :

1.https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-49192495

2.https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/aug/21/the-talibans-return-to-power-in-afghanistan-will-be-a-boon-for-international-jihadism