Energy Security and its Regional Approaches: Caucasus Energy Gate Dimension
By: Gordana Krutii
The International Energy Agency defines energy security as “the uninterrupted availability of energy sources at an affordable price”. Energy security has many dimensions: long-term energy security mainly deals with timely investments to supply energy in line with economic developments and sustainable environmental needs. Short-term energy security focuses on the ability of the energy system to react promptly to sudden changes within the supply-demand balance. Lack of energy security is thus linked to the negative economic and social impacts of either physical unavailability of energy or prices that are not competitive or are overly volatile.
S. Haighighi
thinks, it is imperative to distinguish between the two sources, oil and gas since they have different characteristics from the perspective of energy
security. Unlike oil, gas is relatively difficult to store and gas
transportation infrastructure is rigid in nature (for the time being). This
means that a physical link between producer and consumer is required and the
number of alternative routes to the consumer is limited. Moreover, unlike the
global oil market, the gas market is regional. A global oil market implies that disruption of oil supply in one part of the world may affect the whole world
whereas gas disruption does not necessarily have worldwide repercussions. This
is again due to the fact that firstly, the costs of gas transportation are
higher than oil, and delivery systems are inflexible, and secondly, gas
development in one country or region is isolated (due to a lack of easy
switching between routes) from the development of other regions, which suggests
that disruption in one region does not necessarily influence another.
Energy security can be ensured through local
adequacy—abundant and varied forms of indigenous energy resources. But for
countries that face local shortages, as most do, energy security can be
enhanced through:
■ The ability, of the state or of market players, to
draw on foreign energy resources and products that can be freely imported
through ports or other transport channels and through cross-boundary energy
grids (pipelines and electricity networks). This is increasingly aided by
energy treaties and charters and by investment and trade agreements.
■ Adequate national (or regional) strategic reserves
to address any transient interruption, shortages, or unpredictably high demand.
■ Technological and financial resources and know-how
to develop indigenous renewable energy sources and domestic power generating
facilities to meet part of local energy requirements.
■ Adequate attention to environmental challenges.
■ Diversification of import sources and types of fuels[1].
“The Caucasus is the area of energy resources and
transportation routes, the gates to Central Asia, Iran’s neighbor, and
Russia’s “soft underbelly”. The importance of all this is strengthened by the
transit nature of the region, which connects the East and the West, the South
and the North. Regional security is undermined by `frozen` conflicts and
uncontrolled territories, where the routes of weapons, drugs, and human
trafficking cross.” as Leila Alieva summarized in her analysis.
This part of the Black Sea region, (South Caucasus)
which is situated on the crossroads of the biggest energy consumers and the biggest
energy providers – has been called to play a special role in the functioning of
the energy security network on the Eurasian continent. The Black Sea has a
great potential of becoming a major route of movement of gas and oil from the
Middle East and Central Asia to Europe. South Caucasus, in particular, is
emerging as key to the diversification of energy-transit routes between the energy
supplying and energy-consuming countries[2].
The
importance of the South Caucasus in both a European and global security context
has been repeatedly discussed since the end of the Cold War. In the period when
Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia were part of the Soviet Union the region was
seen as the underbelly of the Soviet superpower, the sometimes forgotten
frontier between the Communist world and NATO. Turkey’s army of over half a
million, propped up by NATO’s nuclear and conventional arsenal, was matched in
kind on the Soviet side by the large and prestigious Trans-Caucasian Military
Command of the USSR Armed Forces[3].
A special role in Caucasus’ Energy security plays its the intention to be energy hub so to imply a land territory attracted inter
communicative energy functional entities and their concentration quality that
determines the Hub’s development factors in aegis of the energy geopolitics.
From this perspective, Azerbaijan has the best chances
as it has the necessary technical facilities. Karadaghi and Kalmaz gas storage
tanks with a total of 3.5 billion cubic meter capacity. Access to the Caspian Sea in
combination with its own resources, which can be used in some disruptions of
gas\oil from the partners, makes its position attractive for investors and
helps to make the general security of the region stronger.
As a confirmation of this point, the UN-accredited
global energy body has published a report titled "World Energy Trilemma
2013: Time to get real - the case for sustainable energy investment".
According to the report, the energy sustainability
index ranks countries on the basis of the comparative analysis of the energy
situation in that country and is based on three factors: energy security,
energy equity, and environmental sustainability. Depending on the achievements
in each dimension, the countries are given scores of A to D. Azerbaijan got a BCD
rating.
Azerbaijan ranked 32nd position in terms of energy
security indexes, outpacing the other South Caucasus countries; Armenia was ranked
95th and Georgia was ranked 106th.
Azerbaijan ranked 74th in the accessibility and
affordability of energy supply across the population and 98th in the
environmental sustainability index.
Azerbaijan, an energy-rich South Caucasus country,
will turn into one of the world's largest exporters of hydrocarbons due to the
realization of its far-reaching plans on gas production and supply.
In 2012, Shah Deniz is projected to produce 18 billion
cubic meters of gas, a large part of which will be transported to Europe. The
number of states purchasing gas from Azerbaijan will rise substantially.
Greece, Bulgaria, Italy, Romania, Poland, the Baltic States, Hungary, Slovakia, and other countries are among those expected to receive fuel from the Caspian
in the coming years. From 2015-to 2020, at least 20 billion cubic meters of gas
will be piped to Europe. Other prospective fields, such as Bahar, Inam, Alov, and Umid, have deposits of more than 2-3 trillion cubic meters. Assuming that
the country will produce 15-20 billion cubic meters of gas annually, these
resources should be sufficient for 100, or even 200 years. This raises the
possibility of exporting gas via other routes, in addition to the Southern
Corridor. In line with its multi-directional energy policy, the government has
included the transportation of fuel via Nabucco, Turkey-Greece-Italy,
Trans-Adriatic, and other pipelines in its long-term plans.[4]
In the contests of energy security we need to mention the
main pipelines of the region (oil):
·
Baku–Batumi
pipeline (Azerbaijan-Georgia)
·
Baku–Novorossiysk
pipeline (Azerbaijan - Russia)
·
Baku–Supsa
Pipeline (Azerbaijan-Georgia)
·
Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan
pipeline (Azerbaijan-Georgia-Turkey)
·
South
Caucasus Pipeline (Baku–Tbilisi–Erzurum Pipeline) - it runs parallel to the
Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan pipeline (oil)
And gas:
· South Caucasus Pipeline (Baku–Tbilisi–Erzurum Pipeline) - it runs
parallel to the Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan pipeline (oil)
· Azerbaijan–Georgia–Romania Interconnector (project to transport
Azerbaijani natural gas to Romania and further to Central Europe)
· Dzuarikau–Tskhinvali pipeline
· Trans-Anatolian gas pipeline (TANAP project - 2018)
· White Stream (project - Georgia, Romania, Ukraine)
The success
achieved at the Shah Deniz, Umid, and Absheron gas fields has strengthened
Azerbaijan’s position in the project to ensure energy security for Europe.
There are great expectations of the Caspian region from Europe in light of its
desire to reduce energy dependence on Russia. At the same time, Azerbaijan has
its own expectations of the West. At a time when negotiations on the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict are at a decisive stage, the success of the Umid and
Absheron gas fields is of great importance for our state. Huge political
dividends may be reaped from successes in the economic sphere; in particular,
hopes rise for the negotiations to resolve the Nagorno- Karabakh situation.
Literature:
1.
Andrei
V. Belyi. Energy security in International Relations (IR) theories
2.
Dennis
Sammut and Amanda Paul. Addressing the security challenges in the South
Caucasus The case for a comprehensive, multilateral and inclusive approach POLICY
BRIEF March 2011
3. Emmanuel
Karagiannis. Energy and Security in the Caucasus
4. Eldar Ismailov and Vladimer Papava “Rethinking Central
Eurasia”, Central Asia-Caucasus Institute Silk Road Studies Program, Washington
DC, 2010
5. Vakhtang Maisaia “The Caucasus-Caspian Regional and
Energy Security Agendas – Past, Contemporary, and Future Geopolitics: View from
Georgia”, Second Edition, IREX, Brussels, 2007
[1]
Hisham Khatib (Jordan) LEAD AUTHORS: Alexander Barnes (France), Isam Chalabi
(Iraq), H. Steeg (Germany), K. Yokobori (Japan, on behalf of Asia-Pacific
Economic Cooperation) Energy Security.
http://www.undp.org/content/dam/undp/library/Environment%20and%20Energy/Sustainable%20Energy/wea%202000/chapter4.pdf
[2] LÁSZLÓ SEBŐ, KLÁRA
SIPOS-KECSKEMÉTHY Energy security and the Caucasus region
[3] Dennis Sammut and Amanda Paul.
Addressing the security challenges in the South Caucasus The case for a
comprehensive, multilateral and inclusive approach POLICY BRIEF March 2011
[4] Murad Mehdiyev. ENERGY SECURITY FOR EUROPE AND REGIONAL
SECURITY FOR THE CAUCASUS? http://www.visions.az/en/news/319/dcb50cb5/
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