The possibility of military confrontation between the West and Russia in Eastern Ukraine and the Black Sea region. Is the world in danger of starting a new war?

 

Nika Chitadze

Director of the Center for International Studies

Professor of the International Black Sea University

President of the George C. Marshall Alumni Union, Georgia - International and Security Research Center  

During discussing the impending military escalation between the West and Russia, it is necessary to analyze the situation in the eastern regions of Ukraine and the Black Sea region and the NATO-Russia frontline as a whole.

Based on the above, it should be emphasized that a new large-scale war may break out in eastern Ukraine, particularly in the Donbas region. The situation in eastern Ukraine has escalated after Russia announced military exercises near the occupied territories and rallied a 4,000 military contingent near the Ukrainian border.

It is noteworthy that the press secretary of the Russian president, Dmitry Peskov, said that Moscow was concerned about the tensions in eastern Ukraine and did not rule out the start of a second war.

Peskov also noted that the reality on the line of contact is dangerous, the Ukrainian army is acting provocatively and these provocations are ongoing, and the movement of Russian military units to the border regions is an internal affair of the Russian state. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov says that the second war in Donbas will lead to the collapse of the Ukrainian state.

Consequently, Ukraine is in danger of starting a war in the eastern region, it can be said that the war in the Donbas region, from a military point of view, has never stopped.

According to data collected by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), up to 500 times the ceasefire agreements have been violated since March 26, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky saying that 20 Ukrainian soldiers were killed and 57 wounded.

According to Ukrainian media reports on April 7, two more Ukrainian servicemen were killed when Russian gunmen opened fire. In particular, citing a morning report by the Joint Chief of Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Ukrainian media reported that "Russian armed forces violated the ceasefire in Donbas 14 times within the previous day, killing two Ukrainian servicemen."

"As a result of the enemy firing, one Ukrainian soldier received incompatible injuries. In addition, in the area of ​​the joint forces operation, one soldier was killed as a result of an explosion on an unidentified explosive device, "- said in a statement issued by the headquarters.

According to them, the Ukrainian side informed the OSCE representatives about the actions of the Russian armed formations.

Three possible scenarios of the war between Russia and Ukraine

It is noteworthy that back in 2015, the American geopolitical organization "Stratfor" developed three possible versions of the resumption of the war in the Donbas:

-        Eastern Ukrainian scenario - involves the occupation of all Ukrainian regions eastern of the Dnieper River by the Russian army;

-        Coastal scenario - including the Odessa region, cutting off Ukraine to the Moldovan border and completely cutting off access to the Black Sea;

-        And finally the land bridge scenario, which is the least ambitious of the 3 scenarios and is therefore realistic and envisages the occupation of the Ukrainian territories between annexed Crimea and the Russian Federation.

Source: https://www.swp-berlin.org/10.18449/2019RP05/

During the war in Ukraine, which Russian Federation started 6 years after the invasion to Georgia, up to 13,000 Ukrainian servicemen and 30,000 civilians have been killed as a result of Russian aggression.

Based on the above-mentioned facts, US State Department spokesman Ned Price mentioned the following: "We've asked Russia for an explanation of these provocations … but more importantly, what we have signaled with our Ukrainian partners is a message of reassurance." 

From its side, the Pentagon says that US military units stationed on the European continent are fully prepared for action, and that the political leadership in Washington has consulted with NATO allies.

The Pentagon called to Russia to respect Ukraine's territorial integrity and sovereignty.

Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said that the United States continues to monitor the situation in Russia-Ukrainian border.

Furthermore, the US Defense Department called on Tuesday (Apr 6) for Russia to make clear its intentions regarding a buildup of military forces along Ukraine's southeast border and in Crimea.

Members of European Parliament have issued a joint statement expressing their condolences to the victims of war and calling for the implementation of the Minsk and the ceasefire agreements.

It is important to note that the US has promised military assistance to Ukraine. Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky announced that US President Joe Biden assured him by telephone that Ukraine would never be left alone in the face of Russian aggression. Zelensky stressed the need to continue negotiations within Minsk and the Normandy format, but noted that the Ukrainian army can resist by all means.

A joint statement by the French and German Foreign Ministers, Jean-Yves Le Drian and Heiko Maas, expressed concern over the deteriorating situation in the Donbas and expressed support for Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity.

NATO aviation is actively opposing the flight of Russian planes at the borders of the Alliance

The situation in the region is aggravated by the fact that NATO aviation is actively opposing the flight of Russian planes at the borders of the Alliance. In particular, on March 29, NATO had to demonstrate its best aviation potential to prevent several Russian fighter jets and bombers from approaching the Alliance's borders over the North Atlantic, North Sea, Baltic Sea and Black Sea.

“Intercepting multiple groups of Russian aircraft demonstrates NATO forces' readiness and capability to guard Allied skies 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, 365 days a year," said Brigadier General Andrew Hansen, Deputy Chief of Staff Operations at Allied Air Command, Ramstein, Germany.

As a result of such continuous rotation, the alliance countries blocked the way for Russian military planes for 350 times last year, which operated near the air border of NATO countries.

According to the official website of NATO, Russian military planes operate with the same style. They often turn off transponders, do not provide information about the flight plan and do not communicate, which is a violation of international norms and poses a threat to both military and civil aviation.

In order to prevent such a proliferation of Russian military aviation, the NATO-led European Forces Command has 40 radar stations and 60 aircraft on daily combat readiness to take over hijackings.

According to the Alliance, this hijacking operation is carried out in a safe and routine manner, i.e., potential border violators will soon be under the influence of NATO`s "Aviation Patrol", their coordinates will be determined, aerial photographs will be taken and they will be observed by remote maneuvering.

On March 29, Alliance planes chased Russian bombers and fighter jets, which in recent years, especially after the annexation of Crimea in 2014, have seen unusually during frequent flights over the North Atlantic, North Sea, Baltic Sea, and especially the Black Sea.

At first stage, Norwegian F-16s hijacked two Russian Tu-95 bombers, which continued to fly south over the North Sea, prompting British and Belgian Typhoons and F-16s to take to the skies.

But the incident did not end there. On the same day, Norwegian warplanes detected two Russian Tu-160 bombers over international waters.

Finally, Turkish, Romanian and Bulgarian fighter jets over the Black Sea had to fly into the sky after Alliance radars spotted three Russian warplanes near NATO airspace and chased them before they left the area.

According to the declaration of NATO Secretary General Spokeswoman, Oana Lungescu, NATO fighter jets on a day-to-day basis are ready to take to the skies in case of suspicious and unannounced flights near our Allied airspace. Thus, air patrols are an important way for NATO to ensure the safety of its members.

The NATO official's remarks also partly extend to Georgia and Ukraine, which are not the members of the Alliance but advanced partner countries. After Russia annexed the Crimean Peninsula and steadily strengthened its Black Sea Fleet, security situation in the Black Sea Region become the one of the top priorities of the North-Atlantic Alliance.

After the 2008 Russia-Georgia war, and especially the annexation of the Crimean Peninsula in 2014, Russia has amassed serious armaments and equipment in the Black Sea. In particular, Russia has 200 units of missiles - both anti-ship missiles and long-range "caliber" missiles. In addition, there are about 100 Iskander missiles stationed around Ukraine in the southern part of Russia.

The range of this type of anti-aircraft missile system is 150-200 kilometers. Russia has also deployed a long-range Bastion-class coastal missile system in Crimea, which can attack enemy ships in virtually every section of the Black Sea, including the Bosphorus. Added to this, obviously, is aviation, which is crucial to achieving strategic advantage.

It should be noted that there were already airfields in Crimea, which Russia rebuilt and deployed there both fighter jets and missile carriers. So, with such serious militarization of the Crimean Peninsula, Russia is seriously controlling the Black Sea waters.

NATO is responding to this revived Russian militarism by strengthening the defensive capabilities of its Black Sea allies.

About two weeks ago, Romania purchased from the United States, about 20 units of salvo fire jet system, equipped with both unguided and guided missiles with a range of 200-300 kilometers. That is, Romania, and therefore NATO, will be able to control the annexed Crimean Peninsula by deploying these systems.

In addition, to monitor the operational situation, NATO Corvette or frigate-level ships are regularly patrolled in the Black Sea and rotated every three weeks, as the 1936 Montreux Convention prohibits ships deployment from non-Black Sea states for more than 21 days.

Consequently, due to the restrictions under the Montreux Convention, NATO is trying to control the situation in the Black Sea by activating the aviation component.

A year ago, a squadron of NATO F-16s flew over the Black Sea airfields of Romania and Bulgaria, as well as the flight of NATO drones was implemented into Ukrainian airspace. It is also known that, with the consent of the Georgian authorities, US Military Plane “Global Hawk” - strategic unmanned reconnaissance aircraft enters and flies into Georgian airspace quite often.

“Global Hawk” in the space over the Black Sea Region

An American plane flies from Sicily, crosses the Mediterranean Sea and enters the Black Sea via Greece. The Global Hawk first explores the Crimean Peninsula, then flies to Novorossiysk, enters Georgian airspace and flies north of Georgia, along the Russian border. And when the third war broke out in Nagorno-Karabakh (meaning the 44-day war between Azerbaijan and Armenia in September-November last year), The “Global Hawk” flew across the Georgian-Armenian border to observe developments in Karabakh at a depth of 200 kilometers.

Conclusion

Thus, because of Russian imperialistic policy, the security situation in the Black Sea has worsened significantly. Crimea become a large military base for Russian Federation and Eastern borders of Ukraine become the huge space for the concentration of Russian troops.

In contrast to the Mediterranean or Baltic seas, the Black Sea region has never been homogeneous in historical and cultural terms. During the Cold War, there was a border between East and West. Today, the interests of three major players intersect here: Russia, Turkey and the West. At the same time, this is not about harmonizing relations, but about dividing the Black Sea into zones of influence. And this may well be the starting point for conflicts.