Possible development of the relations between USA and Russia under Biden Administration. Will the new Cold War be started?

 By: Nika Chitadze

 

Director of the Center for International Studies

Professor of the International Black Sea University

President of the George C. Marshall Alumni Union, Georgia - International and Security Research Center  

Taking into account the tensions in the relations between USA and Russia, on April 13 of this year, a telephone conversation took place between the Presidents of the United States and Russia. During the talks, Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin discussed a number of regional and global issues, including the US and Russia's intention to continue the dialogue on strategic stability on a number of issues, including arms control and security issues, the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) etc. President Biden also clarified that the United States will work intensively to protect national interests in response to Russia's actions, such as cyber-attacks and election interference. President Biden underscored the United States' unwavering commitment to Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity. The president voiced concern over the sudden increase of Russian military forces in the occupied Crimea and on Ukraine's borders, and called on Russia to de-escalate tensions. "President Biden reaffirmed his commitment to a stable and predictable relationship with Russia in the interests of the United States and offered to meet in a third country in the coming months to discuss the full range of issues facing the United States and Russia," the White House said in a statement.

At the same time, as it is known, on March 16 of this year, during his interview US President Joe Biden said that “he believes Russian leader Vladimir Putin is a killer with no soul” and vowed that Putin soon “will pay a price” for interfering in the 2020 U.S. election and trying to boost the reelection chances of then-President Donald Trump.

There was no precedent of the words of Joe Biden in the history of the USA-Russia Relationships.

During the Cold War, when relations between the United States and the USSR were tensed, the previous leaders of both countries were refraining from any offensive remarks of any personal nature towards each other.

Asked  by  a journalist  of  ABC  what  the  consequences  might  be  followed of this declaration, the President replied "you will see shortly".

"I know him quite well," said President Biden, adding that "the most important thing to do in dealing with foreign leaders in his experience ... is simply to know the other person."

Along with this statement, Biden noted that "there are areas where working together is in our common interest." In this regard, the President named the Strategic Armament Reduction Treaty a "new START".

The president's comments were preceded by the release of a report by the US intelligence service. U.S. intelligence reports have backed accusations that Russia and Iran were directly behind Moscow's attempts to interfere in US elections in 2020.

Russia, according to the authors of the report, unlike in 2016, did not try to hack the voter registration and ballot accounting systems, but spread disinformation in order to increase Donald Trump's chances for re-election.

The authors of the report concluded that Russian President Vladimir Putin personally authorized the conduct of a wide campaign to discredit Joe Biden's candidacy and influence Trump's inner circle.

The Russian embassy in Washington called the accusations groundless.

Meanwhile, British Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab said the British government shares many of the American concerns about Russia. According to him, there are currently no great reasons for optimism in relations with Moscow.

Short Comparative analysis of the Economic Potentials of USA and Russia

During the discussion about confrontation within the relations between USA and Russia, it is necessary to pay attention and compare the economic and military potential of two countries.

 

Particularly, volume of US GDP in 2020, despite of its decreasing because of COVID 19 by 2.3 percent, or $500.6 billion, was $20.93 trillion.

 

By the estimation of International Monetary Fund, GDP per capita in USA in 2020 was 63,051 USD.

 

With regard to the Nominal GDP of Russia, as of 2020, it consisted $1.4 trillion. According to the estimations of IMF, GDP per capita in Russia was 9,972 USD.

 

Military potential of USA and Russia

 

Taking into account the military potential of two countries, it should be pointed out, that in 2019 US Military expenditure prevailed 732 Billion USD.

 

US military forces consisted 1,359,685 servicemembers in the regular armed forces with an additional 799,845 servicemembers in the reserves as of February 28, 2019.

                         

Nuclear potential: US possess 1750 entities of deployed warheads, other different types of warheads 4 435 units, thus, in general 6 185 entities.  

 

With regard to Russia, as of 2019 Russia released on Defense 65.1 Billion USD.

Number of Russian military forces are about 900 000 military servicemen.

Nuclear potential: As of January 2017, American Scientists estimated that Russia has approximately 1,765 deployed strategic warheads, and another 2,700 non-deployed strategic and deployed and non-deployed tactical warheads, plus an additional 2,510 warheads awaiting dismantlement.

 

What is it expected in USA-Russia relations under Baiden administration?

 

Taking into account the possibilities of the introduction a new sanction against Russia by USA, it should be pointed out the following: First, it can be mentioned that Russia will be denied the access to American technology. Particularly, the US Department of Commerce said on its website that it would impose new trade restrictions against Russia on March 18, due to an attempt to poison Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny.

 

The Commerce Department is seeking to prevent Russia from gaining access to US dual-use technology that could be used by Russia to develop chemical weapons. The United States will restrict the export and re-export to Russia of equipment, technologies and software related to national security. For a number of categories of goods and services, in particular those related to civil aviation and the space sector, exceptions will apply.

 

The US Department of Commerce announced the expansion of export restrictions on Russia due to the fact that the Russian government violated international law by using chemical (or biological) weapons against its own citizens. We are talking about the poisoning of ex-GRU officer Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia in the UK in 2018, as well as opposition leader Alexei Navalny in Russia in August 2020.

“By deploying illegal nerve agents against dissidents, both inside and outside its borders, the Russian government has acted in flagrant violation of its commitments under the Chemical Weapons Convention and has directly put its own citizens and those of other countries at mortal risk,” the Commerce Department said in a statement.

 

Furthermore, there are two reasons that can worsen Russian-American relations: specific actions of Russia, for example, in Ukraine or Georgia, and the internal political situation in the United States. In recent years, the rhetoric of the Democrats after Russian cyberattacks has boiled down to this idea: "We must punish Russia for Trump has become a president."

It is expected, that under Joe Biden, US sanctions will become more targeted, the new president is more worried than his predecessor about the pressure on the opposition in Russia, as well as the situation in Belarus.

Joe Biden has repeatedly criticized Russia, calling it a threat to the United States and accusing it of violating basic rules.

Will the sanctions be more painful?

On the one hand, Biden will take a constructive approach to foreign policy, to arms issues, to the extension of the START III treaty with Russia. But, confrontation over specific issues could intensify the sanctions decisions inherent in both political parties in the United States.

So, the policy of sanctions under Biden will continue, accordingly, the confrontation between the two countries will be going on, but Biden's policy will be more predictable: United States will continue to put pressure on Moscow, trying to force it to change its foreign policy, which, in turn, will contribute to a change in political conditions inside Russia. The new American president will also be more interested in what is happening in Belarus, in Ukraine, in Georgia and work more actively in other post-Soviet countries. Position of US related to the situation at the Russia-Ukraine border is clear example of it.

Biden considers the Russian elite to be a collection of autocrats and kleptocrats who rely on the oligarchy, in his speeches he distinguishes between them and the people.

Navalny becomes an international figure

Former US President Donald Trump spoke a little about the persecution of opposition leader Alexei Navalny, for Biden and his team this issue is much more important, Navalny is becoming a noticeable figure in international politics.

Supporters of the oppositionist initiated an active campaign in support of him, but in late summer and early autumn there were only minimal demonstrations for him, and not many people came to meet him at Vnukovo airport. Up to two thousand people gathered at the airport on the day of Navalny's arrival from Berlin, about 60 were detained. In the short term of several weeks or months, the Russian authorities are able to control the situation with Navalny, but it is difficult to predict anything further.

Navalny is an expression of seriously growing discontent in Russia. The more the authorities criminalize the oppositionist, and the more it becomes known about the methods used against him, the more popular he becomes.

Blocking Nord Stream 2

The completion of Nord Stream 2 (capacity of which is about 55 Billion cubic meters of natural gas) depends primarily on Germany-Russia relations, and the chances that it will be completed are less and less. The Biden administration will continue to put pressure on Germany to suspend, freeze, or even cancel the construction of the pipeline.

At the same time, the demand for both gas and oil in Germany will decline, which will cause structural problems in the Russian economy.

Possible counter actions from Russian side  

Russia will try to increase its military presence in the Black Sea Region – on the frontline between NATO and Russia. Clear example of it, is the concentration of Russian troops near Russia-Ukraine border. It is interesting to point out, that in Southern Military District of Russia – which includes Black Sea and Caucasus Regions and some Southern provinces of Russia, there are deployed about 300 000 Military servicemen.

 

Furthermore, as it is known, according to Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova,  “Russia, which acts to ensure its own security, will adequately respond to NATO activities in the Black Sea”. Asked by reporters what Russia's possible response to the strengthening of the Alliance's military presence in the Black Sea would be, Zakharova said, "to say it briefly, in terms of ensuring our own security, the answer is traditional - we will respond adequately."

 

Kremlin needs the tensions near the borders of NATO member states for the political bargaining with the west, first of all USA, for requiring some political concessions from the west (for example not to adopt new sanctions against Moscow etc.) instead of withdrawal troops from the Eastern borders of Ukraine etc.  

 

Furthermore, Russia will try to activate relations with geopolitical and ideological rivals of USA and the west, first of all China and Iran. For example, it is necessary to point out, that for example in 2018 Russia and China conducted joint military exercises “Vostok 2018”, with participation of 300 Thousand military servicemen. Furthermore, since 2019 Russia become one of the main importers of natural gas on Chinese energy market via pipeline “Sila Sibiri” (Power of Siberia), capacity of which is 38 Billion cubic meters of Gas.

 

It is also expected about possible efforts of Russia to strengthen the economic and security cooperation within the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, where the members are Russia, China, four post-soviet republics of Central Asia. Since 2017, members of this organization have become India and Pakistan.

 

From its turn, it is worth to mention that Iran and China signed 25-years agreement on cooperation. This document takes into consideration the cooperation in the field of trade-economic relations and transport. Thus, official Kremlin will do its best to activate Moscow-Tehran-Beijing triangle.

 

Another attempt of Russia can be connected with the intention to strengthen the cooperation with Turkey with the purpose of dividing the spheres of geopolitical influence in the Black Sea Region. Trade volume between two states has reached 26,309 billion USD in 2019, with Turkey’s 3,854 billion USD worth of exports and 22,454 billion USD imports. Furthermore, Turk Stream Natural Gas Pipeline has been inaugurated on 8 January 2020. Thus, through the projects “Blue Stream” and “Turk Stream” Russia is one of the main suppliers of Turkey with natural gas. Thus, taking into account the economic measures, official Moscow will try to assure the Ankara in the importance of not admit the western military presence in the Black Sea Region. As it is known, Turkey (despite the fact that it is NATO member state) takes an advantage by the principles of Montre Convention, according to which military ships of non-littoral states can stay in Black Sea water are no longer than 21 days.

Most probably, official Kremlin will continue to present the new initiatives in the framework of informal organization BRICS – with participation of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South African Republic. The share of BRICS in global GDP as of 2019 was about 33%. By the opinion of many experts, member countries of this organization have the intention to decrease the influence in the world politics and world economy of the leading western democratic states and institutions. For example, one of the main purposes of BRICS is the foundation of Bank, with the authorized capital in 100 Billion USD. Thus, Bank can be considered as an alternative of World Bank Group.  

What steps need to be taken by US and the west to prevent the activate of anti-western forces on behalf of Russia?     

Taking into consideration the new realities of the “Cold War”, for the strengthening the US influence on international arena, the following steps should be taken, particularly:

 

Geopolitical Factors

 

For the providing the further enlargement of Democracy and preventing the activities of anti-western forces, Western democratic states under the US leadership should strengthen their strategic positions, to be prepared with the resistance from different non-democratic forces and for this, it is necessary to work out the common strategy, which will create possible to prevent the anti-Atlantic tendencies. For this purpose, democratic forces should not admit the cooperation and unifications of the different anti-democratic forces.

 

In this regard, the interests of the west require the following:  

 

To provide and promote cooperation and unity among the countries of the Global North – especially between North America and Europe – for the example to discuss the issue about foundation common economic market, determine the common strategy for the relations with anti-western unities (for example Shanghai Cooperation Organization etc.)

 

Maximal support in the implementation democratic reforms and promoting integration to the western democratic society those states, whose foreign policy and national security priorities are the establishment closer relations with the west. For example, to get consensus for the admission of Georgia and Ukraine to NATO and further integration to the European structures of those states. The benefits, which will be received by those two former Soviet Republics during the relations with EU and NATO (for example, according to the experts, in case of entrance to the force the free trade regime between Georgia and EU, the GDP of Georgia would increase on average for 4,3%) will represent the examples for other post-soviet republics, which will increase the motivation among of those states to implement democratic reforms for the providing further cooperation with USA and EU etc. In this case, the process of democratization maximally can cover about 1/6 part of our planet (the whole territory of the post-soviet space).

 

To support such International Institutions, which legitimate the western interests and attract the non-western states at those institutions (IMF, World Bank, WTO, OECD etc.).

 

Transformation of NATO and EU to the organizations with more Global functions

 

For the increasing the US and western influence and democracy enlargement, it is necessary to provide security in the different regions of the World. In this regard it should be mentioned about the role of NATO and EU in this process. Taking into account, that both organizations first of all represent not only politico-military and security (in case of NATO) and economic (in case of EU) organizations, but they are international regional communities of the democratic states, based on the common values – Superiority of the law and respect and protection the fundamental principles of human rights. Furthermore, taking into consideration the limited resources of UN and problems – related to the adoption of the decisions within the Unites Nations for the providing peace and security, it represent the great importance to increase the role, functions and geographical area of actions of NATO and EU. For example, North Atlantic Alliance was main guarantee of the providing peace and security and preventing genocide and mass violations of human rights in case of the conflicts in Balkans (Bosnia, Kosovo, Macedonia). Furthermore, NATO member states took the decisive role in combating terrorism and peacekeeping operations in Afghanistan within the ISAF mission and Iraq (by the supporting US and UK forces) etc.

 

With regard to EU, after the signing Maastricht and Lisbon treaties, also NATO-EU Berlin Plus Agreement in 2003, it has been significantly increased the role of the European Union in the fields of Defense and Security. In this regard it should be mentioned about the role of EU in the involvement in the peacekeeping operations in Bosnia and Macedonia since 2005 (when EU forces replaced NATO forces), Georgia (functioning of EUMM Mission after Russia-Georgia war in 2008), also in Africa (Congo, Central African Republic, Mali etc.).

 

Taking into account the above-mentioned realities, the following aspects should be taken into consideration:

 

It should be established closed partnership relations with the democratic states from the different regions of the World for the working out joint actions related to combating terrorism and peacekeeping and peace building operations. The special attention should be paid on the promoting partnership relations with Japan, South Korea, New Zealand, Australia, South Africa etc.

 

Information Campaign  

 

As it is known, different radical groups work (including the using about 10 000 web-sites) for the spreading the wrong information about the role of the countries from the global North, first of all USA in the World. For example, most of the people from the countries of the Global South consider the existence of the main socio-economic problems in their countries as a result of the exploitation by the economically rich states the poor states. Or, for example in most of the Islamic states, due to the propaganda from the radical and fundamentalist groups sides, many followers of Islam believe, that West is fighting against Islam religion etc.

 

Taking into account the above-mentioned factors, it is important to work out (for example during the G7 meeting, or in the framework of EU member states meetings) the special strategy and tactics for the maximal using the mass-media means and information technologies for the distribution the information about positive role of the USA and in general International Democratic Society to support the fighting against poverty, misery, unemployment, corruption etc. in the developing countries.

 

Energy Factors 

 

Many events in the International economic relations are depended on the production and trade by oil and gas. Countries, possessing the large reserves logically should have a strong bargaining tool to influence their own political and economic status in the world economy.

 

Taking into account the above-mentioned factors, it is necessary to discuss the issue about providing the energy security of the democratic states, thus, to decrease their dependence on authoritarian regimes in the field of energy and weakening the authoritarian regimes, thus, to make them to be more accountable before the international democratic society, to decrease the imperialistic ambitions in those countries (case of Russia) and to implement the democratic reforms etc. 

 

Political elites in the west should take into consideration the development of the processes in the field of energy in the 80-th of the XX Century, when as a result of the negotiations between USA and Saudi Arabia, Official Washington assured the partner state from the Middle East, that one of the main method for the influence on USSR and making official Kremlin to decrease its imperialistic ambitions, thus, to provide the international security was depended on the decreasing the international oil prices. In 1985, Saudi Arabia increased the oil production for 3 times, as a result, the price on the barrel of oil fell down from 28 dollars to 10 dollars.

 

Taking into account, that one of the main budget incomes of Soviets was export of the “black gold”, the decreasing of the oil prices caused the increasing of the budget deficit for the 5 times within the years 1985-1988. As a result of the economic crisis, Soviet Empire agreed on the withdrawal of its armed forces from Afghanistan and later from the Eastern and Central Europe, unification of Germany, decreasing the defense costs etc. Finally, it caused the collapse of the world communist system and ending of the “cold war”. 

 

USA-EU cooperation in the field of energy. Cooperation between USA and Europe in the field of energy, for example, in case of the successful implementation the different energy projects bypassing the territory of Russia, also, increasing the consumption of the alternative sources of energy, the convenient base for the promoting international peace and stability will be established, which will be connected with the fact, that the influence of authoritarian states will be significantly decreased in the World Politics and will make those states to consider the implementation of democratic reforms inside the country.    

 

The strategic oil reserves have gradually lost its importance for the national and energy security of USA during the “Shall gas” revolution. Due to it, USA, by the increasing the production of oil and decreasing the export of the “black gold” will be able to influence on the International Prices of oil, which will negatively effect on the positions of the several authoritarian regimes, who possess the important reserves of oil and gas.   For example, according to the Russian economists, as a result of the economic sanctions and decreasing the prices on oil, the damage for the Russian economy will be about 570 Billion USD.

 

It should be pointed out, that together with the development of the gas industry, it is decreased the consumption of oil, accordingly its import to USA. For example, if in 2005, USA satisfied its demands on import oil for 60%, in 2013 this data is decreased till 35%. With regard to Natural Gas, its import within 2005-2013 decreased for 32 percent, which also caused the decreasing the US foreign trade deficit. 

 

With regard to the gas, taking into account that as a result of the yearly incomes of Russia for the export of natural gas to Europe (between 150-200 billion cubic meters of gas) prevails 400 Billion Euro per year, it is important the consideration to support the idea of the export shall gas – produced on the territory of USA to Europe.

 

Economic factors

 

It is important the unification of the American and European markets in the framework of TTIP – Trans Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership program. Nowadays, the daily volume of the trade between USA and Europe is about 3 Billion Dollars. In case of integration the American and European markets, for the different companies, especially transatlantic companies can be created the huge unified space, in the consumption market of which will be involved about 800 million people.

 

Relations with the developing countries

 

According to World Bank Group, the combined stock of developing countries' external debt was $5.5 trillion within the second decade of the XXI century. In this regard, to the agenda of the different Intergovernmental (UN, EU) Organizations, also World Summits (G7, Davos Forum) and International Financial Institutions (World Bank Group, International Monetary Fund – where most of the decision-making process is adopted by the economically rich states) should be included the task to discuss the issue of the gradual abolishment the foreign debt of the most of the countries of Africa, Asia, Latino America and Pacific by the conditions, that countries from the global south with the assistance help of democratic states and International Institutions (who will work the main recommendations according to the specific needs of the concrete state) - will take the responsibilities for the democratization of their political system, will fight against corruption etc.