The political crisis in Georgia after the parliamentary elections on the example of the struggle between the government and the opposition and a possible solution
The political crisis in Georgia after the parliamentary elections on the example of the struggle between the government and the opposition and a possible solution
Nika Chitadze.
Professor at the International University of the Black Sea
Director of the Center for International Studies
President of the George C. Marshall Alumni Union, Georgia - International and Security Research Center
As
a result, those opposition parties, that have passed the 1% barrier and obtained
a corresponding number of seats in Georgia's 10th convocation parliament are
refusing to enter to the country's legislature body.
As
it is known, the international community, in particular the representatives of
various international organizations, such as the Council of Europe and the
European Union, as well as various countries, through their diplomatic missions
call the opposition to enter to the Parliament.
The
situation is complicated by the fact, that despite the efforts of Georgia's
Western partners to resolve the election issues between the opposition and the
government and the political crisis in general, there is still no point of
contact within the negotiations process between the political entities. The
opposition categorically refuses to enter to the parliament and demands new
elections under the new electoral administration, while the government underlines
the issue that the holding of new elections will not be considered.
Based
on the above, the question arises whether the Parliament of Georgia of the 10th
convocation will start working in the conditions if it will be composed by only
90 deputies, only representatives of the ruling party? This issue is also
related to important legal and political problems, in particular, the Supreme
Law of Georgia, the Constitution of the country states the following: “The
first sitting of the newly elected Parliament is held no later than the 10th
day after the official announcement of the results of the parliamentary
elections. The first sitting is appointed by the President of Georgia. The
Parliament is authorized to start working at the first sitting, if the majority
of the full composition of the Parliament is presented at the sitting.
Parliament shall be fully empowered from the moment of notification of
two-thirds of the members of Parliament. From this moment, the authority of the
parliament of the previous convocation is terminated. "
Accordingly,
if we imagine that all the candidates on the list of the opposition party will
write a statement for resignation, in this case, according to the existed
rules, 90 deputies have the right to open a session, but the CEC (Central
Election Commission) chairperson can no longer nominate the
power of one hundred deputies. This number is
necessary to recognize the power of new elected parliament. Under the given
circumstances, there is a corresponding probability that the parliament of the
tenth convocation will cease its existence on the first day. However, representatives
of the ruling party declare that they will not remove the mandate of MP from
members of the opposition parties. In this case, too, there is one important
legal issue, namely, the Constitution states the recognition of the powers of a
Member of Parliament: “The issue of recognition or early termination of the
powers of a Member of Parliament is decided by Parliament. This decision of the
Parliament can be appealed in the Constitutional Court. The term of office of a
Member of Parliament shall be terminated prematurely if he / she:
"Addresses
the Parliament with a personal statement on termination of authority
..........". That is, it is not clearly stated in the Constitution whether
the authority of a Member of Parliament will be automatically terminated on the
basis of a personal statement? Does the parliament have the right not to
suspend the representative of the legislature of the country? Will the ruling
party have the legal right to make any decision - for example, on the
suspension / non-suspension of a member of parliament if the powers of the
tenth convocation parliament are not known? Or can members of parliament of the
9th convocation terminate or not terminate the parliamentary mandate of a
representative of an opposition party when the mandate of the parliament of the
previous convocation has not yet been terminated?
Given
the above-mentioned crisis situation, it is probably necessary to analyze what
both the opposition and the government are winning and losing in the current
situation.
What
does the opposition gain and lose if it does not enter to parliament?
In
case of not entering to the parliament, the opposition can win the following:
It
assures both the Georgian population and the international community that the
October 31, 2020 parliamentary elections were marred by significant
irregularities, which is why the opposition does not recognize the legitimacy
of the newly elected parliament;
In
addition, the opposition asserts its principledness to the Georgian and
international community that it is committed to its position, and because of
this principle, a particular politician relinquishes his or her privileges of
being a Member of Parliament and, as a result, has a high position and high payment
etc.
Also,
the parliament of the tenth convocation will be composed only by the ruling
party “Georgian Dream”, which will create some discomfort for the ruling party
within the parliamentary activity;
The
opposition will not lose its supporters, most of whom have their own demands to
the opposition, which is related to the non-entry of barrier-ridden political
parties into parliament.
As
for what the opposition may lose, the following should be noted:
Although,
as already mentioned, the parliament will be staffed only by members of the “Georgian
Dream”, which will make it inconvenient to work in the legislative direction,
the Georgian Dream will be able to make adopt different decisions without any
critics from the opposition side, including laws and other type of declarations
etc. which are unacceptable for the opposition;
Taking
into account the situation with COVID 19, the opposition may find it difficult
to mobilize large numbers of its own supporters to organize permanent protests;
The
opposition will be deprived the opportunity to use the parliamentary tribune to
discuss a specific bill, adopt various resolutions or declarations, as well as
summon government members to parliament and ask them questions, for example,
during government hours within parliament and carry out other procedures;
The
opposition will be deprived of the opportunity to express its position within
the committee activities during the discussion of a specific bills;
According
to current legislation, related to the existence of so-called "locking"
mechanism, the ruling party will not be able to be presented with more than 90 members
in the parliament, even if it wins in all 30 majoritarian constituencies (which
has already happened). Accordingly, if there were 60 opposition members in the
parliament, it would be possible that, like within the ninth convocation
parliament, when more than a dozen deputies left the “Georgian Dream” etc. it
would be possible to form an alliance against ruling party within the
parliament. In other words, by not entering to the parliament, the opposition
may lose potential allies - MPs from the ranks of the “Georgian Dream” who
could be moved to the opposition within the concrete period of time;
Finally, according to the current position
of the ruling party, it is possible to put on the agenda the issue of cutting
funding for those opposition parties that refuse to be engaged in parliamentary
work.
In
addition, the demand of the opposition for resignation of Tamar Zhvania (Chairman
of the Central Election Commission) and the entire election administration, also
has some difficulties. In particular, given the current political situation,
there is no guarantee that the new election administration will be staffed by
more "neutral" individuals acceptable to the opposition;
In
addition, totally the Election Commission includes about 22,000 employees at
the central and regional levels, and the complete replacement of all these
people requires a lot of time and very difficult selection procedures.
What
does the incumbent party “Georgian Dream” win and lose?
There
are several factors that can help the ruling party to conduct its parliamentary
activities. In particular, if the parliament of the tenth convocation functions,
the “Georgian Dream” will be able to draft relevant bills inside of the
parliamentary committees and then to submit the relevant documents to the
plenary session for the final approval without any critical remarks from the
opposition side;
In
the tenth convocation parliament, the ruling party will be able to approve the state
budget of Georgia for the appropriate coming years;
The
ruling party will be able to approve the candidacy of the Prime Minister and
the government;
The
government will have the monopoly right to use the parliamentary tribune.
What
does the ruling party lose?
Considering
the fact that according to Article 42, Paragraph 2 of the Constitution of
Georgia related to the Parliamentary Commission of Investigation and other
Temporary Commissions: "The opposition should not be less than half of the
total number of members in the temporary commission", the new parliament will
not be able to set up a commission of inquiry within the next parliament;
According
to Article 47 of the Supreme Law of the country on "International
Treaties" states that "Parliament shall ratify or denounce
international treaties by a majority of its full membership. "Parliament
shall ratify or denounce the international treaty provided for in subparagraph
(c) of paragraph 2 of this article by a majority of not less than three-fourths
of the total membership."
Accordingly,
the parliament will face the problem of ratifying an international agreement,
which is of a military nature, for example, if the issue of placing US military
bases in Georgia is on the agenda, or envisages Georgia's entry into an
international organization or to other interstate union, etc.
According
to Article 77 of the Constitution of Georgia, which deals with the rule of
revision of the Constitution, "a constitutional law shall be considered for
adoption if it is supported by at least two thirds of the full membership of
the Parliament." Consequently, the parliament will not be able to
implement the constitutional changes.
In
search of a possible way out from the crisis
The
fact is that the country is in a very difficult situation due to the current
realities and the spread of the coronavirus. Naturally, on the one hand, it
would be better for political debates to take place in buildings rather than on
the streets, but in some cases, given the specific political realities, the
opposition and part of the society are forced to protest the socio-economic or
political situation in the country by the peaceful demonstrations.
As
for the solution, given the fact that despite the negotiation process, there
are no common points of contact between the authorities and the opposition, it
is necessary that both sides, especially the ruling party, to take some
concrete compromise steps towards concessions.
In
particular, the opposition must agree to enter parliament if the "Georgian
Dream" agrees to hold the next parliamentary elections in a purely
proportional manner (i. e. all 150 members of parliament will be elected
proportionally, thus, 30 majoritarian constituencies will be abolished) and
within the 1% electoral threshold in 2022, instead of 2024. It is also important that the
forthcoming parliamentary elections are conducted electronically (Estonian
model), which eliminates errors in ballot counting, as well as the using of
administrative resources (e.g. mobilization of activists of the ruling party at
the polling stations) and other possible voting violations (e. g. the
possibility of using so-called "voting carousels”).
In
addition, under the conditions of electronic elections, more citizens of
Georgia with the voting rights will have the opportunity to participate in the
elections. As it is known, 56% of the population (eligible to vote)
participated in the elections which were held on October 31 of the current
year. One of the main reasons why 44% of the population did not (or could not)
participate in the elections is that only 38 polling stations were opened in
different countries of the world for Georgian citizens - living outside of
Georgia (their number exceeds one million). In addition, a significant
proportion of citizens living in Georgia, live outside their place of residence
(registration address). For example, many citizens living in the region have
come to Tbilisi and other big cities of Georgia in search of work, etc.
Consequently, many people were unable to physically travel to the region on
October 31 of this year and vote from their place of residence.
Of
course, all the above changes need a number of constitutional amendments, and
for this the tenth convocation parliament must be composed by all 150 members,
so that at least 2/3 of the members support the constitutional changes. In this
case, the opposition may be given an additional motivation to enter to the
parliament and support significant changes for Georgia in favor the development
of democratic institutions in the country.
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