Coronavirus Geopolitics and Fighting Against Its Consequences – Why Georgia Is Successful Story

 

Coronavirus Geopolitics and Fighting Against Its Consequences – Why Georgia Is Successful Story

by Vakhtang Maisaia

PhD in politics and military politics

Professor, Caucasus International University (CIU)

 

 

A massive challenge to world society in form of virus epidemic dissemination shifts not only global security environment but also daily life of the universe. The virus labeled as COVID-19 emerged in Wuhan province in China has stimulated global smite pandemic wave getting obscured international political system and caused more than 10 thousand death toll in number. Certainly the COVDIV-19 belongs to biological weapon and more concretely affiliated with bacteriological agent of natural origin together with bacteria entities. In accordance to international security provision it ascertains as asymmetrical military threat with trend-centric origin. Unfortunately namely the biological warfare and its agents regulation regime is very weak and plausible and only limited with a special Convention on Biological Diversity signed by 150 countries in 1992 and the Convention on the Prohibition of the Development, Production and Stockpiling of Bacteriological (Biological) and Toxin Weapons and on their Destruction signed in 1972. Since COVID-19 emerged in China, nearly 3,000 people have died and close to 90,000 have been infected (likely an undercount) across dozens of countries, with community transmission now reported in multiple locations in the United States. The pandemic revolution has been revealed completely unpreparedness all nations in the world, including the most developed nations of G7 group and the EU and NATO structures. The COVID-19 tsunami traced through all national borders and endangered everything on its path and destroyed communities in one run. On February 26, “Corona” (COVID19) was reported in Georgia. An infected Georgian citizen was found to be in Iran. Just after this day, the people of Georgia learned the great importance of the Lugar Lab in our country. Unlike other countries we do not send tests abroad, we are able to conduct important research in our own country. The healthcare system is well-prepared to meet the virus that even the most powerful states in the world have to deal with. All state bodies united in the fight against of virus in Georgia. The doctors fight tirelessly for 24 hours in order to defeat the virus COVID19. On February 27, the Georgian society woke up in a completely different reality, the geographical area of the Corona virus is growing. Georgia has already appeared on the map of Corona. Despite of serious threat imposed on Georgia with introduction into the country emergency law and declared as “red zone” two regions: Marneuli and Gardabani ones and with more than 100 confirmed of virus diseased persons, anyway Georgia became as a “successful case-study” for fighting against the COVID-19 and despite of declaring emergency situation with elements of martial law elements (including enacting curfew since 9.00 p.m. till 6.00 a.m.) the application remarkable to the situation even due to case that no any militaries who are taking in force the strict measures in the “red zones” have not been diseased with COVID-19 virus. Why Georgia became such “successful story” relevantly compare with the same situation in Italy, France, the UK, and other European states could be considering the following patterns:

1)     Georgia is small country with relatively small population and control the small size territory became more efficient and with high and thorough investigation of every cluster of the confirmed cases;

2)     A complete shutdown and no internal and international travel measures have been conducted by the Georgian government as soon as first information on COVID-19 virus spread over. By large, the national security system orientation namely on prevention natural disorder and catastrophic scenarios rather than obviation of military symmetric challenges that was enacted due to taking into force new version of the Constitution of the country played also positive feedbacking. Currently, the main coordinator HQ on crisis management is in hands of the National Security Council formally led by the Prime-minister but de-facto led by the Minister of Internal Affairs who is simultaneously is being the Secretary to the Council. The structure has been operating sufficiently enough in time of declaration of emergency situation. In addition to credible contribution paved by the Defense Forces of Georgia perpetrated namely complete quarantine regime in the “Red Zones” and the whole Ministry of Defense staff successfully led by incumbent Defense Minister Irakli Garibashvili. The Forces were well prepared for dealing with various scenarios of emergency and crisis management having a vast experience gained in NATO and EU-led peace-making and crisis management operations abroad;

3)     A list of high-professional and well skills based crises public managers (medical high-level staff members) in the government of Georgia (mainly and having experienced with so-called “Civil Defense” oriented crisis management concept (mainly having proper biological defense segment of the concept) since the Soviet Union period also contributed in fighting successfully with the unknown threat. Moreover three biological research institutions and centers have been operating since the Soviet period of time, for instance, "Anti-Black Death Georgian Station", which is located in Tbilisi, which is now the "National Center for Disease Control and Public Health", where almost 70 years were working on dangerous pathogens and another agency such “Tabakhmela Biochemical Plant” as well as a bit later appeared Richard Lugar Center (see below);

4)     The most adventurous premature for successful management case configured with endorsement since 2002 when proper agreement had been signed by the Defense Minister of Georgia and State Defense Secretary on operating so-called “Lugar Library” or the Richard Lugar Center for Public Health Research. The full name of the Agreement was "Cooperation in the field of prevention of the introduction of pathogenesis and experience related to biological weapons development". The Center was created due to by that time existence of Pankisi Gorge crisis with emergence jihadist warriors in the area and identification of biological toxin entities Ricin production manufactured by the local branch of Al-Qaida. One of the mission on prevention and further dissemination of the toxin aimed for running the Center. The Lugar Research Center is fully passed on Government of Georgia, and since 2018 the Government of Georgia provides full funding for Lugar Research Center and Laboratory Network. The Center played a key role as a diagnostic facility during the 2020 coronavirus pandemic in Georgia. Exactly the factor played and still playing vital role in monitoring and casting the COVID-19 virus in Georgia. The speed identification of the virus symptoms in 5 hours after the testing of possible victim with 95% result is credible instrument for successfully fighting with the asymmetric threat.

Certainly these four above-mentioned factors are only few parameters preliminary identified as tool and achievement of the success case for Georgia at the stage.

 

At this stage, the question of what will happen after the Corona virus pandemic and what impact on the local (national), regional and global levels of development of political processes this unknown phenomenon will have. It is really important to predict and model the development of such scenarios, and to some extent, it is even necessary.

From a general point of view, the geopolitics of the virus, or the geopolitics of the corona virus, has already changed the overall lifestyle at all levels and the rhythm of each person's life. In this regard, four main characteristics can be distinguished, within which we can talk about the effect of its influence. These include:

1) Political model

2) Economic model

3) Social model

4) Psychological model

Based on these four characteristics, we can clarify the development scenario at the local (state) level. This can be discussed on the example of Georgia.

1)     Political model: In this regard, it is expected that the situation will be complicated and certain political forces will turn the political situation in favor of their own interests, given the post-pandemic conditions. This will be facilitated by the holding of parliamentary elections and the attempt to artificially aggravate the situation;

2)     Economic model: Of course, the post-pandemic can be followed by a rather large economic recession and the creation of a currency corridor, where Georgian lari (Georgian currency) fluctuations and rising unemployment will be inevitable, which will lead to the reformation of the economic system;

3)     Social model: Within this component, the situation can become quite critical, and if serious social reforms will not be implemented, such as, for example, "shock therapy" steps in the field of social redistribution. The structure of the social market will change directly and priority will be given to more high-tech professions;

4)     Psychological model: Here, it is defined a small "pandemic" of social psychosis and psychological disorder, which will be caused by the hidden negative psychological charges accumulated during the quarantine period and the need for its large-scale eruption. Attention should be paid to the approximate increasing process of the criminogenic situation, and to the creating process of an aggressive environment overall, as it should be done in a short period of time.

As for the global level, the following parameters can be distinguished when describing the processes in the format of a futurological scenario with similar parameters (characteristics):

o   Political model: The situation will inevitably affect the conditions of world order and a three-pole or tripolar order will be created, where the main center of geopolitical influence will be: China, the United States and Russia. It is possible to develop certain types of disintegration processes in certain types of regions and increase the risk of international terrorism. The importance of international organizations and the process of globalization may be temporarily weakened. Geopolitical relations between these three centers of influence will be strained;

o   Economic Model: In the global economy of the post-pandemic, the scenario of  "The Great Depression" and the process of energy security vulnerability will take place. It is possible, that the solid currencies can be weakened and at the same time, it can be the stimulation of high-tech innovations and projects developments. The conditions of the "North-South" economic order may change and take on a more geosocial orientation format;

o   Social Model: In this regard, the post-pandemic situation will go further in terms of nationalism and may take on the tendency to present a civilizational phenomenon, which will be a novelty directly for reforming the parameters of ethnic and national identity. The phenomenon of global socialization can lead to a more integrated scenario at the expense of uniting different societies. It is possible that Samuel Huntington's theory of the "clash of civilizations" can be not so chimerical and mythical;

o   Psychological model: Interesting events can be developed in this model, starting with psychological neurosis on a global scale and developing the same syndromes in all countries, and then even more social adaptation and the desire to unite within any specialized direction, for example, environmental protection. There will be a growing tendency to spread mythology and similar myths , such as "conspiracy theory", while strengthening the process of religious faith.

The scenarios are to be considering as future models how the COVID-19 influence on international and regional politics. However, the processes are being transformed into concrete mega-cognitive paradigm of resilience of the communities and human beings. Hence, a future geopolitical events whether international society is getting accustomed to realities with existence of COVID-19 and perceived as inherent condition of our way of life.