Nika Chitadze
Ketevan Jebisashvili
Researchers of The Centre for
International Studies at the International Black Sea University
Introduction
Despite all the efforts
of Georgia aimed at peaceful resolution of the problems with Russia, The
official Kremlin is trying to weaken the Georgian statehood by the using
various new methods. Threats, which are coming from Russia, represents the
combination of “hard” and “soft” power. It will be important to analyze several
aspects of those threats, which are coming from the “northern neighbor” of
Georgia.
Russian
army on Georgia's borders and new roads
As an example Russia's
attempt to strengthen the 58th Army. As it is known, the 58th Army is part of Russia's
Southern Military District. The zone of
responsibility for the mentioned district, along with the two occupied
territories of Georgia, covers the North Caucasus and annexed Crimea. The
military units of this district were involved in the most active military
exercises, 58th Army is considered as the most combatant military unit in the
structure of Russia’s unrestricted forces. In recent months, information has
been reported that the 58th Army is reinforcing additional motorized divisions
and armored vehicles BMP-3 and upgrades with T-72BZ modernized tanks. These divisions will be placed in the Krasnodar
and Stavropol region, in Vladikavkaz and Dagestan - in the village of Baltik. Moscow's actions are a
big threat for Georgia
because of the following reasons :
The village of Baltik of
the Dagestan Republic is located near
from the Georgian border. It is known as the Kakheti highway, which is a
great threat for Georgia due to its geographical location, and the placement of
a motorized part of Army in the village of Baltik. It is important to note that in case of
opening this road ,Georgia can export
grapes, wine, agricultural products, etc. but Russian tanks and army
will easily reach the strategic territory of the country.
More serious issue is the location of the
motorized partsin Vladikavkaz. According to the information
released by pravda.ru, "military city" will be built on the territory
of North Ossetia, accordingly, additional parts of the above-mentioned
motorized divisions will be placed on the northern border of Georgia.
In parallel with this,
the Georgian government is going to build a new tunnel in the direction of
Kvemo Kobi, which is located in a few tens of kilometers from these bases (in Vladikavkaz).
As we know, Georgia does not have such a large military contingent in the
Kazbegi region that would be able to disrupt the Russian military units, so there is a threat that the Russian occupation line could be
expanded to the Southern direction.
The threat is enhanced by the fact that
Representatives of the puppet regime of „South Ossetia“ often say that the
Truso valley was part of the
"historic Ossetia". It turns out, that Georgia might create a
new "Roki tunnel" with its own financial resources that Russia can
use for the same purposes as the Roki tunnel in August 2008. If Russian army enters in Kazbegi region, the occupant will have an opportunity to use the road from Juta to Roshka.Invasion in Georgia territory
with military
columns is also possible by Arkhoti.The Rachka-Arkhoti road, is constructed by Georgian side and it is
relatively broader than standards demand. Georgia with its own hands destroys
the natural defensive wall, which is a mountain of the Caucasus.
If we will add to, the
occupied territories of Georgia Abkhazia and the Tskhinvali region, the
direction of Stepantsminda-Kobi-Kvesheti (Mleta) and Roshkiy, it turns out that
Georgia will completely lose its control over the Caucasus Range and a large
part of the whole territory of the country turns into "polygon" of
Russian missile systems and artillery.
In addition to the road infrastructure, it should
be noted about hundreds of military facilities that were built on the
occupied territories during recent years. In
particular, the number of Russian military units in Abkhazia and South
Ossetia, after the Russian-Georgian war
in 2008, increased significantly. Particularly, the 7th Russian military base is located near
the former military airport of Bombora (near Gudauta, Abkhazia). About 7 000
Russian servicemen serve in Abkhazia, Russia's 4th military base in "South
Ossetia" is deployed near Tskhinvali and also in Java, Russian militaries
are also stationed in Akhalgori district. Over 4,000 Russian military
servicemen are located in “South Ossetia”.
Provoking
constant tensions in the occupied territories
The most important
leverage of Russia against Georgia is provoking constant tensions with the
“administrative border” of "South Ossetia". The problem of
"borderization" can not be solved. During recent years Russia has crossed the border by
200-300 m. Georgian peasants living in that territory are without land and pastures.There
are also facts of frequent arrests and cases requiring ransom in exchange for
release.
At this stage, the
Georgian side is limited with cautious statements and calls this process
"creeping occupation" and Russia's deliberate provocation. However,
if these process continues and becomes more regular, there is possibility of
straining the situation in the conflict zones.
Also, we should mention Russia’s
lobbying in the international arena about recognition of so-called “South Ossetia” and Abkhazia. Russia has an
influence on many states of "Third World". A clear example of this is
the recognition of Abkhazia's "independence" by Syria a few weeks
ago. If Georgia will act against Russia's interests, it will be followed by
recognition of occupied regions by other states. Russia continues to work in
this direction.
Manipulation
by Pankisi case
The Russian government
has been active in Pankisi since
September 11, 2001.Chechnyan
rebels were demonstrated
by Kremlin as international terrorists.Vladimir Putin made a threatening statements against Georgia. He named Georgia
“terroristic hunt”and accused Georgia in supporting international terrorism.
The official Kremlin has stated that
Georgia was endangering Russia's national security and openly stated that
Russia had a full right to carry out military operations in Georgia. Despite
the fact, that Georgia had been able to fully control the Pankisi in 2002-2004, Russia has consistently blamed
Georgia for the fact that Chechen fighters had terrorist camps in Pankisi. As a result of the bloody military
operations carried out by Russia in Chechnya, several thousand Chechen refugees
entered in Georgia, so Russia asserted
that, there were many terrorists hiding among peaceful civilians.
Several months ago,
Georgian special services carried out an operation and physically liquidated
young Kist (relative to Chechens - nation) 19-year-old Temirlan Machalikashvili,
and Russian special forces decided to speculate with this event. Namely, in
Pankisi on June 15, during the celebration of the Ramadan, people appeared with
posters of Ramzan Kadyrov's father, Akhmad Kadyrov and Russian flags. It is noteworthy that
Omalo’s (mountainous region of Georgia) self-government representative was also
participating in this action. Therefore, we can assume that the representatives
of the Russian special services are looking for support in local self-government
for psychological pressure on the population. By introducing such individuals,
Russia is trying to use the local population's dissatisfaction for its own
purposes and create new destabilization inside Georgia. That is why, this
incident must not remain beyond the
attention of Georgian special services. Also there are 44 unofficial paths on
the Georgian-Russian border.
"Soft power" and ideological leverage
Not only for Georgia, but
also for the international democratic community, one of the main challenges of the XXI century is fighting against
Russia’s "soft power". During the last few years, pro-Russian
organizations - political parties and "non-governmental
organizations" are active in Georgia. Russia conducts Anti-Western propaganda through its partner
electronic or printed media. Anti-Western rhetoric was activated in social
networks, online media, and some radio and TV programs.There are dozens of
similar organizations in Georgia. They do not talk openly about financial sources,
but some Russian foundations are included in the “partners”' list. For example, Alexander Dugin's organization
"Eurasian Movement" notes that its partner in Georgia is
"Eurasian Choice" - one of the most active anti-Western
organizations. Also, the "Gorchakov Foundation" (its foundation was
initiated by Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev), is operating in Tbilisi, which
expressly stated that its aim is to spread Russian soft power. These
organizations often organize rallies against NATO and the EU, demanding
Georgia's neutrality, Stalin's monuments reconstruction, recognizing Russia as
a "great friend", “protecting” Orthodox values and so on. The main
project of Russian propaganda in Georgia is the "Sputnik" - mass
media that is led by the Kremlin's famous propagandist, journalist Dimitri Kiselov.
One of the most important
levers of Russian "soft power" is the Church and the issue of unity
with Russians. Narrative, as if Europe fights against Georgian church and
traditions, but Russia and Georgia have common
faith, is actively working.
Manipulating by Georgians
living in Russia
Hundreds of thousands of
ethnic Georgians live in Russia (there is not exact data, the numbers are from
150 thousand to one million). Part of them are Russian citizen. Creating
problems for them is another tool in the hands of Russia, which country once
used. After detaining several Russian officers on espionage charges in Georgia
on 27 September of 2006, the Russian authorities launched a campaign of mass deportation
of Georgian citizens from Russian territory. Later, Georgia filed a claim
against Russia in The European Court of Human Rights and won the case.
Thousands of people will
face financial problems in case of deportation of ethnic Georgians from Russia.
In Georgia, where unemployment is very high, for deportees will be difficult to
find a job.
Suspension of money
transfers from Russia
The only source of income
for thousands of families in Georgia is the money sent by family members who
work abroad. Foreign finance transfers consist the 9% of GDP. Russia is the
first in the rating of those countries, from which Georgians send money to
Georgia. In 2016 Georgia received $ 709.23 million from Russia, which accounts
for 49.2% of total money transfers. Delaying of transfers from Russia will cause
serious problems not only for thousands of families, but also for unstable
national currency.
Suspension of Russian
investments and Embargo on Georgian products
According to the data of
2017, Russia is the second trade-economic partner for Georgia. Within a year,
the trade turnover exceeds one billion dollars. According to the National
Statistics Office of Georgia, in 2016, direct Russian investment in Georgia
amounted to $ 82 million.
Despite the fact that Russia
holds the eighth place in the main investor's subset, this investment is a
significant tool in the hands of Moscow. Because biggest hare of Russian money
comes from such sectors, as energy and communications.
In 2014, Georgia received
275 million dollars (mainly by export of wine and mineral water) from Russia. With
this indicator Russia has again regained the place of the main exporting
country for Georgia. In March 2006, the official reason for embargo was the low
quality of Georgian products, but Moscow also recognized that the decision was
political. At that time, 80 percent of Georgian market was totally dependent on
the Russian market. This fact has caused substantial damage for particular
entrepreneurs and for the country's economy.
If the Kremlin still uses
the same methods, Georgian economy will lose hundreds of millions of dollars.
The economy is an important tool in the hands of Russia.
Conclusion
Using the above-mentioned
levers, Russia is trying to maintain its control over Georgia, which has the strategic
location. The Georgian government and Georgian society must manage more
rational policy and hinder Russian soft power within the country. While Russian
power is gradually rising and Western global security has its own challenges ,
it is important for Georgia to maintain the status of an interesting and
strategically important country. Country must implement internal consolidation,
thoughtful economic and security policy, maintain national identity and become
a full member of the European family.
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