Main methods of the pressure on the Georgian statehood by Russia.

Nika Chitadze

Ketevan Jebisashvili

Researchers of The Centre for International Studies at the International Black Sea University

Introduction

Despite all the efforts of Georgia aimed at peaceful resolution of the problems with Russia, The official Kremlin is trying to weaken the Georgian statehood by the using various new methods. Threats, which are coming from Russia, represents the combination of “hard” and “soft” power. It will be important to analyze several aspects of those threats, which are coming from the “northern neighbor” of Georgia.

Russian army on Georgia's borders and new roads

As an example Russia's attempt to strengthen the 58th Army.  As it is known, the 58th Army is part of Russia's  Southern Military District. The zone of responsibility for the mentioned district, along with the two occupied territories of Georgia, covers the North Caucasus and annexed Crimea. The military units of this district were involved in the most active military exercises, 58th Army is considered as the most combatant military unit in the structure of Russia’s unrestricted forces. In recent months, information has been reported that the 58th Army is reinforcing additional motorized divisions and armored vehicles BMP-3 and upgrades with T-72BZ  modernized tanks. These divisions will be placed in the Krasnodar and Stavropol region, in Vladikavkaz and Dagestan - in the village of Baltik. Moscow's actions are a big threat for Georgia because of the following reasons :

The village of Baltik of the Dagestan Republic is located near  from the Georgian border. It is known as the Kakheti highway, which is a great threat for Georgia due to its geographical location, and the placement of a motorized part of Army in the village of Baltik.  It is important to note that in case of opening this road ,Georgia can export  grapes, wine, agricultural products, etc. but Russian tanks and army will easily reach the strategic territory of the country.

More serious issue is the location of the motorized partsin Vladikavkaz. According to the information released by pravda.ru, "military city" will be built on the territory of North Ossetia, accordingly, additional parts of the above-mentioned motorized divisions will be placed on the northern border of Georgia.

In parallel with this, the Georgian government is going to build a new tunnel in the direction of Kvemo Kobi, which is located in a few tens of kilometers from these bases (in Vladikavkaz). As we know, Georgia does not have such a large military contingent in the Kazbegi region that would be able to disrupt the Russian  military units, so there is a threat  that the Russian occupation line could be expanded to the Southern direction.

The threat is enhanced by the fact that Representatives of the puppet regime of „South Ossetia“ often say that the Truso valley was part of the  "historic Ossetia". It turns out, that Georgia might create a new "Roki tunnel" with its own financial resources that Russia can use for the same purposes as the Roki tunnel in August 2008. If Russian army enters in Kazbegi region, the occupant will have an opportunity to use the road from Juta  to Roshka.Invasion in Georgia territory with military columns is also possible by Arkhoti.The Rachka-Arkhoti road,  is constructed by Georgian side and it is relatively broader than standards demand. Georgia with its own hands destroys the natural defensive wall, which is a mountain of the Caucasus.

If we will add to, the occupied territories of Georgia Abkhazia and the Tskhinvali region, the direction of Stepantsminda-Kobi-Kvesheti (Mleta) and Roshkiy, it turns out that Georgia will completely lose its control over the Caucasus Range and a large part of the whole territory of the country turns into "polygon" of Russian missile systems and artillery.

In addition to the road infrastructure, it should be noted about hundreds of military facilities that were built on the occupied territories during recent years. In particular, the number of Russian military units in Abkhazia and South Ossetia,  after the Russian-Georgian war in 2008, increased significantly. Particularly,  the 7th Russian military base is located near the former military airport of Bombora (near Gudauta, Abkhazia). About 7 000 Russian servicemen serve in Abkhazia, Russia's 4th military base in "South Ossetia" is deployed near Tskhinvali and also in Java, Russian militaries are also stationed in Akhalgori district. Over 4,000 Russian military servicemen are located in “South Ossetia”.

Provoking constant tensions in the occupied territories

The most important leverage of Russia against Georgia is provoking constant tensions with the “administrative border” of "South Ossetia". The problem of "borderization" can not be solved. During recent years Russia has crossed the border by 200-300 m. Georgian peasants living in that territory are without land and pastures.There are also facts of frequent arrests and cases requiring ransom in exchange for release.

At this stage, the Georgian side is limited with cautious statements and calls this process "creeping occupation" and Russia's deliberate provocation. However, if these process continues and becomes more regular, there is possibility of straining the situation in the conflict zones.

Also, we should mention Russia’s lobbying in the international arena about recognition of so-called  “South Ossetia” and Abkhazia. Russia has an influence on many states of "Third World". A clear example of this is the recognition of Abkhazia's "independence" by Syria a few weeks ago. If Georgia will act against Russia's interests, it will be followed by recognition of occupied regions by other states. Russia continues to work in this direction.

Manipulation by Pankisi case

The Russian government has been active in Pankisi  since September 11, 2001.Chechnyan rebels were demonstrated by Kremlin as international terrorists.Vladimir Putin made a threatening statements against Georgia. He named Georgia “terroristic hunt”and accused Georgia in supporting international terrorism. The official Kremlin has  stated that Georgia was endangering Russia's national security and openly stated that Russia had a full right to carry out military operations in Georgia. Despite the fact, that Georgia had been able to fully control the Pankisi  in 2002-2004, Russia has consistently blamed Georgia for the fact that Chechen fighters had terrorist camps in  Pankisi. As a result of the bloody military operations carried out by Russia in Chechnya, several thousand Chechen refugees entered in Georgia, so Russia asserted  that, there were many terrorists hiding among peaceful civilians.

Several months ago, Georgian special services carried out an operation and physically liquidated young Kist (relative to Chechens - nation) 19-year-old Temirlan Machalikashvili, and Russian special forces decided to speculate with this event. Namely, in Pankisi on June 15, during the celebration of the Ramadan, people appeared with posters of Ramzan Kadyrov's father, Akhmad Kadyrov  and Russian flags. It is noteworthy that Omalo’s (mountainous region of Georgia) self-government representative was also participating in this action. Therefore, we can assume that the representatives of the Russian special services are looking for support in local self-government for psychological pressure on the population. By introducing such individuals, Russia is trying to use the local population's dissatisfaction for its own purposes and create new destabilization inside Georgia. That is why, this incident must  not remain beyond the attention of Georgian special services. Also there are 44 unofficial paths on the Georgian-Russian border.

"Soft power" and ideological leverage

Not only for Georgia, but also for the international democratic community, one of the main challenges  of the XXI century is fighting against Russia’s "soft power". During the last few years, pro-Russian organizations - political parties and "non-governmental organizations" are active in Georgia. Russia  conducts Anti-Western propaganda through its partner electronic or printed media. Anti-Western rhetoric was activated in social networks, online media, and some radio and TV programs.There are dozens of similar organizations in Georgia. They do not talk openly about financial sources, but some Russian foundations are included in the “partners”' list.  For example, Alexander Dugin's organization "Eurasian Movement" notes that its partner in Georgia is "Eurasian Choice" - one of the most active anti-Western organizations. Also, the "Gorchakov Foundation" (its foundation was initiated by Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev), is operating in Tbilisi, which expressly stated that its aim is to spread Russian soft power. These organizations often organize rallies against NATO and the EU, demanding Georgia's neutrality, Stalin's monuments reconstruction, recognizing Russia as a "great friend", “protecting” Orthodox values ​​and so on. The main project of Russian propaganda in Georgia is the "Sputnik" - mass media that is led by the Kremlin's famous propagandist, journalist Dimitri Kiselov.

One of the most important levers of Russian "soft power" is the Church and the issue of unity with Russians. Narrative, as  if  Europe fights against Georgian church and traditions, but  Russia and Georgia have common faith, is actively working.

Manipulating by Georgians living in Russia

Hundreds of thousands of ethnic Georgians live in Russia (there is not exact data, the numbers are from 150 thousand to one million). Part of them are Russian citizen. Creating problems for them is another tool in the hands of Russia, which country once used. After detaining several Russian officers on espionage charges in Georgia on 27 September of 2006, the Russian authorities launched a campaign of mass deportation of Georgian citizens from Russian territory. Later, Georgia filed a claim against Russia in The European Court of Human Rights and won the case.

Thousands of people will face financial problems in case of deportation of ethnic Georgians from Russia. In Georgia, where unemployment is very high, for deportees will be difficult to find a job.

Suspension of money transfers from Russia

The only source of income for thousands of families in Georgia is the money sent by family members who work abroad. Foreign finance transfers consist the 9% of GDP. Russia is the first in the rating of those countries, from which Georgians send money to Georgia. In 2016 Georgia received $ 709.23 million from Russia, which accounts for 49.2% of total money transfers. Delaying of transfers from Russia will cause serious problems not only for thousands of families, but also for unstable national currency.

Suspension of Russian investments and Embargo on Georgian products

According to the data of 2017, Russia is the second trade-economic partner for Georgia. Within a year, the trade turnover exceeds one billion dollars. According to the National Statistics Office of Georgia, in 2016, direct Russian investment in Georgia amounted to $ 82 million.

Despite the fact that Russia holds the eighth place in the main investor's subset, this investment is a significant tool in the hands of Moscow. Because biggest hare of Russian money comes from such sectors, as energy and communications.

In 2014, Georgia received 275 million dollars (mainly by export of wine and mineral water) from Russia. With this indicator Russia has again regained the place of the main exporting country for Georgia. In March 2006, the official reason for embargo was the low quality of Georgian products, but Moscow also recognized that the decision was political. At that time, 80 percent of Georgian market was totally dependent on the Russian market. This fact has caused substantial damage for particular entrepreneurs and for the country's economy.

If the Kremlin still uses the same methods, Georgian economy will lose hundreds of millions of dollars. The economy is an important tool in the hands of Russia.

Conclusion

Using the above-mentioned levers, Russia is trying to maintain its control over Georgia, which has the strategic location. The Georgian government and Georgian society must manage more rational policy and hinder Russian soft power within the country. While Russian power is gradually rising and Western global security has its own challenges , it is important for Georgia to maintain the status of an interesting and strategically important country. Country must implement internal consolidation, thoughtful economic and security policy, maintain national identity and become a full member of the European family.