China Geo economic Code and its Global Economic Engagement (OBOR)
By Joanna Tung
Vakhtang Maisaia
Introduction:
Chinese BRI initiative as one of the biggest global investment project received a lot of attention and is
extensively discussed among the scholars and policymakers. Motives and methods behind the One Belt, One
Road are subjected to scrutiny and criticism, and across the literature the
initiative is being branded anything from Chinese Marshall Plan to “debt
trap” and “new colonialism.” This paper will try to answer the question
whenever depicting BRI Initiative as a predatory form
of economic statecraft, seeking to ensnare poor countries for geopolitical
ends is justified. In order to do so it will explore the genesis and the
motivations of BRI and then will discuss the priorities, financing and
performance of China’s investments in the BRI from the angles of geographical
distribution, routes and projects. Final
part is committed to perception of One Belt, One Road and its advantages and
disadvantages.
Genesis of the One Belt, One Road initiative
The intention to revive the old Silk Road
tradition was first shown by President Xi in 2013. The Chinese proposal consisted
of two projects comprising overland
and maritime, routes. The
first one, called the Silk Road Economic Belt, was announced in September
during a speech at the Kazakhstan University in Astana. The second so-called
Maritime Silk Road opened with a Chinese leader speech in Indonesia. Initially,
both projects were referred to under a common name: One Belt, One Road (OBOR),
which was later transformed into the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
In Kazakhstan, Xi Jinping proposed deepening economic ties and cooperation as well as expanding the space for development between Eurasian countries from the Pacific to the Baltic Sea. The means to achieve these goals was to strengthen policy communication and people-to-people exchanges, improve road connectivity, promote trade facilitation and enhance monetary circulation. President assured regional partners that: “China respects the development path as well as the domestic and foreign policies Central Asian people have independently chosen for themselves. China will never intervene in internal affairs of Central Asian countries, seek leadership in regional affairs, or operate sphere of influence. To strengthen mutual support and to be good friends with sincerity and mutual trust. “[1]
During the Jakarta speech president promised strengthening maritime cooperation with ASEAN countries and building The Maritime Silk Road for the benefit of common development, peace and prosperity by using huge space and grow potential of the region.
In president’s own words: “China cannot achieve development in isolation from the world, and the world also needs China for development. China is fully committed to the path of peaceful development, the independent foreign policy of peace and the opening-up strategy for win-win results. A stronger China will add to the force for world peace and the positive energy for friendship, and will present development opportunities to Asia and the world, rather than posing a threat. China will continue to share opportunities for economic and social development with AESAN, Asia and the world.” [2]
He showed readiness to upgrade the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area and proposed the establishment of an Asian infrastructure investment bank.
The assumptions of the OBOR framework were not innovative but were borrowed from the popular in the mid-1990s, concept of Peaceful Development, according to which China's own development and stability is contingent on shared prosperity with its international economic partners, especially those in the developing world. The Silk Road initiative fits well with the presented by Xi fenfayouwei (striving for achievement, SFA) foreign policy strategy, that aims at making more friends by letting others benefit from China’s growth.
With new Silk Road initiative Xi “sold” to the world vision of peaceful and inclusive cooperation towards common good, development and prosperity under China’s leadership. The vision that portrays China as friendly, open and committed to grow and support everyone that needs it became a key tool of Beijing’s diplomacy in the incoming years.
Motivations
From a domestic perspective, OBOR aims to rebalance regional development between the advanced coastal regions and the under-developed western regions within China and address China’s overcapacity.
On the international level the development and
investment initiatives was originally devised to link East Asia and Europe
through physical infrastructure including
creating a vast network of railways, highways, energy pipelines and streamlined border crossings, both
westward, southward, and the rest of Southeast Asia. While the Maritime Silk
Road project involved investments in the development of ports along the Indian
Ocean as far as East Africa and parts of Europe and aimed at recreating and
widening traditional navigation routes. On top of the physical ties Chinese initiative aims to connect
countries on business and cultural levels. In the decade since, the project has expanded to Africa,
Oceania, and Latin America and, according to Council of Foreign Relations, currently up to 147 countries
either already have signed on to projects or indicated interest in doing so.[3]
With two-thirds of the world’s
population and 40 percent of global GDP affected, China
has significantly broadened its economic and political influence. Belt and Road Initiative
(BRI) is considered the Chinese response to American pivot to Asia and is
interpreted as an institutional framework and largest platform for economic
cooperation that primarily favours trade, enhance investment and is actively
involved in the construction of complex global infrastructure network. Through
project promoting the objective of closer economic integration, China attempts
to change the international relations landscape and boost its image by actively
helping many developing countries to grow their infrastructure and enhance
trade and investment. However Beijing’s primary objectives are to increase their own share of
global commerce, bilateral trade with numerous potential partners and its
overseas direct investments. “In addition, OBOR should benefit China's access
to natural resources that are needed to sustain its medium- and long-term
economic growth, such as food, oil and natural gas, as well as other strategic
minerals.”[4]
By
assumption, BRI’s investments in infrastructure and government-level
international cooperation, support and policy coordination, should boost outward
direct investment flows from China by improving the availability and quality of
logistics facilities in the participating countries and considerably lower
their political risks for Chinese firms investing there.
The investment are
concentrated around 6 corridors:
1.
New
Eurasia Land Bridge: rail link to the Baltic Sea in Poland via Russia,
Kazakhstan and Belarus
2.
China,
Mongolia, Russia Economic Corridor (rail and road)
3.
China,
Central Asia, West Asia Economic Corridor
4.
China Indochina Peninsula
Economic Corridor
5.
China,
Pakistan Economic Corridor: (Kashgar city to Gwadar port)
6.
China, Bangladesh, India, Myanmar Economic
Corridor.
Priorities
Cooperation within OBOR is based on five
priorities. Number one priority stresses the improvement of infrastructure
along the OBOR routes in order to get an efficient infrastructure network
connecting all sub regions (such us: highways, railways, aviation, shipping and
pipelines and electricity, postal services, customs, border defence, quality inspection
and planning). Second, is policy co-ordination that involves an
intergovernmental mechanism for the exchange of macroeconomic policies and
communication and the promotion of intergovernmental cooperation at several levels.
Third is open trade that encourages cooperation in new industries, the
development of mutual investment areas and the removal of obstacles to
investment. Fourth priority is taxation integration, the establishment of a
stable exchange rate system, further strengthening financial cooperation, the
establishment of a regional financial early warning system and the issuance of
renminbi bonds. Number five is focusing on the connections between people by
promoting tourism (by streamlining visa application procedures in OBOR member countries),
facilitating cultural exchanges between students and scientific and
technological cooperation and research collaboration.
Forms of investments and financing
“Outward
direct investment (ODI) and construction contracts are the two major forms of
China’s investments in the BRI countries. The value of China’s total
investments and construction contracts in BRI countries during 2014–2018
amounts to $573.31 billion. Both ODI and construction contracts experienced a
rapid increase in the first five years of the BRI.”[5]
Source: He Alex; “The Belt and Road Initiative: Motivations, financing,
expansion and challenges of Xi’s ever-expanding strategy”; Journal of
Infrastructure, Policy and Development (2020) Volume 4 Issue 1. DOI:
10.24294/jipd.v4i1.1180; https://systems.enpress-publisher.com/index.php/jipd/article/view/1180/895
Source: He Alex; “The Belt and Road Initiative: Motivations, financing,
expansion and challenges of Xi’s ever-expanding strategy”; Journal of
Infrastructure, Policy and Development (2020) Volume 4 Issue 1. DOI:
10.24294/jipd.v4i1.1180; p.145
https://systems.enpress-publisher.com/index.php/jipd/article/view/1180/895
87% of BRI funding come
from Chinese
state-owned banks mainly from CDB, Exim Bank of China, ICBC, Bank of China, the
China Construction Bank (CCB) and the Agricultural Bank of China. The figure includes government-sponsored
bilateral funds (two percent) and the BRI bonds. The other 13 percent of BRI
funding is supported by multilateral financial institutions, enterprises’
equity financing in Chinese capital markets and the Silk Road Fund.[6] “The
Silk Road Fund” - the state-owned fund with total assets of $40 milliard exclusively
focusing on investments for the BRI was established by the Chinese government
in 2014. Additionally, there are some multilateral and bilateral funds jointly
sponsored by other governments and China (such as i.e. China-ASEAN Investment
Cooperation Fund (CAF)), however China’s state-owned banks are usually the
major sponsors behind them. Besides Chinese state own banks two multilateral
development banks AIIB and New Development Bank provide loans for projects in
countries and regions along the Belt and Road. Only a few large private enterprises such
Huawei, Alibaba and Tencent participated in the investment in BRI
infrastructure projects, however the private sector is increasingly getting
involved in the BRI by investing in trade and economic cooperation with
countries along the Belt and Road.
OBOR initiative is based on debt
financing. [7] “A 2021
study analyzed over one hundred debt financing
contracts China signed with foreign governments and found that the contracts
often contain clauses that restrict restructuring with the group of twenty-two
major creditor nations known as the “Paris Club.” China also frequently retains
the right to demand repayment at any time, giving Beijing the ability to use
funding as a tool to enforce Chinese hot button issues such as Taiwan or
the treatment of Uyghurs. In January 2022, Nicaragua officially joined BRI,
one month after severing diplomatic ties with Taiwan.”[8]
Projects and geography
One of the
major part of One Belt One Road is China, Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) the
transit hub that thanks to connection to Arabian Sea routes could with time
diminish China’s sensitivity to Malacca Strait issue and bring it closer to oil
exporting countries The investment involves numerous large
projects such as power plants, wind farms, roads, industrial parks, high speed
rail lane and the extension of the deep-water port in Gwadar. Other flagship
projects and investments in the region include new train line through Laos and
high-speed rail and freight rail through Southeast Asia. Additionally
Bangladesh, Cambodia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, Philippines and Sri Lanka
received milliards of dollars’ worth of loans to build power plants, highways,
bridges, power and deep water ports. In
Central Asia, Beijing is focusing on the energy sector by building pipelines in
Russia and buying oil fields in Kazakhstan and cooperating with Turkmenistan
and Uzbekistan it also plans to build almost 7,000-kilometre long high-speed
railway from Beijing to Moscow.
China’s investments are spreading also in
Europe and Africa. China has
invested in railway connection between Chengdu and Łódź and has agreed to
finance a 400-kilometre railway line from Budapest to Belgrade. In regards to
the Maritime Silk Road, it will lead to already expanded Greek port in Piraeus
and China has plans to upgrade ports in Lisbon and Duisburg. Since 2015 Beijing
has also been encouraging Western developed economies to join the BRI and as an
effect in March 2019, Italy became the first G7 member to join the initiative.
Africa is the largest regional component
of BRI as 46 African nations that have
signed onto the initiative. This represent over 1 milliard
people and cover about 20 per cent of
the Earth’s landmass. “Africa,
as an important raw materials supplier, is also included in this project. In
January 2015, China agreed with the African Union to help build railroads,
roads, and airports to link all 54 African countries at the cost of over US$ 26
billion. The plans include a 1,400-kilometre-long coastal railway in Nigeria,a
800-kilometre-long railway in Kenya, a 740-kilometre railway linking Djibouti
and Addis Ababa, and a 1,400-kilometre network of rail lines in Chad Other
Beijing’s maritime plans include modernisation of the ports in Tanzania and
Mozambique. “[9]
In 2017 idea of BRI extended into Latin America. By the first half of 2019 China
had signed Memorandums of Understanding (MoU) with 19 countries in this region including
Venezuela, Chile, Panama and Costa Rica.
BRI
themes
BRI themes
are ever-expanding and are now including the Digital Silk Road, the Green Silk
Road initiative and the Polar Silk Road.[10]By
May 2019 China had already signed MoUs with 16 countries on building the
Digital Silk Road which focuses on intensifying cooperation in frontier areas
such as nanotechnology and quantum computing, artificial intelligence, digital
economy, and advancing the development of big data, cloud computing and smart
cities and promote
Chinese standards and services.
However in this fields Beijing has advantages in wireless internet (5G),
internet and telecommunications technologies, and is providing key digital infrastructures
in these sectors. Behind the idea of Green BRI lay the promotion of green,
low-carbon and sustainable developments. The BRI International Green
Development Coalition was officially established in 2019 and will act as a
platform for green technology transfer, policy communication and environmental
knowledge sharing.
Since 2013
the idea of Polar Silk Road through the development of the Arctic shipping
routes has been raised. Additionally the sector-based Silk Roads, such as an
energy Silk Road, an air Silk Road and an electricity Silk Road, were
suggested.
Global
perception of OBOR initiative
The
implications of OBOR are still heatedly debated in China and abroad as
Beijing’s initiative provokes controversy and debt-trap diplomacy has become a
common accusation against BRI since 2017. China’s investments are often carried
in underdeveloped, low income countries that that take on large amounts of debt
to fund infrastructure upgrades. OBOR
could potentially worsen the existing problem of government debts as many local
governments rush to implement the OBOR strategy without careful consideration of
efficacy and productivity. Even though China uses ostensibly peaceful tactics,
Beijing views BRI projects as a commercial endeavour, loans with close to a
market interest rate are expected to be fully repaid and not all countries can
afford it. In some of them overall debt
to China has soared since 2013 above 20% GDP. [11] Particularly
since market became unstable due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian
invasion of Ukraine many countries struggle to repay loans associated with the
initiative that contribute to budget deficit and debt crises. Due to costs of
CPEC Pakistan, for example, required bailout from the International Monetary
Fund and in Ghana and Zambia, high debt loads that partly consisted of BRI
loans led to sovereign default. Former prime minister of Malaysia Mahathir bin
Mohamad campaigned against overpriced BRI initiatives and cancelled $22 billion
worth of BRI projects.
Some BRI
investments have involved opaque bidding processes and required the use of
Chinese firms and Chinese workers, thus limiting the benefits to the host
country and inflating the costs. Criticism is pointing at lack of transparency,
government control, obscure business practices, human rights abuse, and a
neo-colonial character of trade relationship with developing countries. Beijing
has been accused of paying low wages, unfair practices concerning the usage or
its own companies disregard to international
standards binding the Western competitors. Additionally China has a negative
history related to worker safety, corporate governance and environmental standards
and its financial help is criticised for its approval of authoritarian regimes.
China is
also facing criticism in relation to contribution to climate change. Nearly
half of all BRI spending goes to non-renewable energy investments. Beijing
committed to stop building coal-fired power plants abroad in 2021 however the
conditions regarding the application of this promise remain ambiguous.
“Meanwhile,
the United States shares the concern of some in Asia that the BRI could be a
Trojan horse for China-led regional development and military expansion.
President Joe Biden has maintained his predecessors’ skeptical stance towards
Beijing’s actions, but Washington has struggled to offer participating
governments a more appealing economic vision”.[12]
Among the Asian countries, India shows
far-reaching distrust of China's intentions. For a long time it have been
trying to convince international opinion that Beijing creates unsustainable debt burdens for its
Indian Ocean neighbours in order to seize control of regional choke points and
their true ambition is to obtain regional hegemony. Similar approach is
presented by Japan.
BRI
initiative is causing mixed reaction in Europe. Participating countries such as
Greece and Hungary have obstructed bloc-wide efforts to criticize China, however
in December 2021, the EU announced Global Gateway, a $300 billion
infrastructure investment program explicitly meant to rival BRI and French
President Emmanuel Macron suggested the BRI could make partner countries
“vassal states.”
Particularly
worrying for the big geopolitical players are locations of new ports built by
China for economic reasons. Placed on the Indian Ocean rim and the Arabian Sea,
such us Pakistani port of Gwadar (situated strategically on the Strait of
Hormuz), or the Sri Lankan Colombo Harbour, they may as well be used for
military purposes. Also, Beijing’s
already has considerable economic influence in Africa and it managed to
integrate a military and security component into its economic partnerships with
African states. In 2017, China established its first
overseas military base in Djibouti, situated at the strategic
entrance to the Red Sea corridor. Very recently heavily indebted to China Equatorial
Guinea presented Beijing with an opportunity to establish a naval base on the
Atlantic. Since Guinea is not only African nation with a high indebtedness to
China where Beijing plays a central economic development role, it is
possible that other Chinese naval bases may yet appear on
Africa’s Atlantic coast. “The pursuit of large-scale commercial infrastructure signals strategic
intent, and the expansion of China’s military presence across Africa in the
wake of the BRI is not unexpected. Beijing’s adroit interweaving of economic
soft power and hard power has produced a symbiosis between the growing number
of Chinese commercial enterprises across Africa and the proliferation of
China’s new security arrangements across the continent. While economics played
the lead role in this military-economic development complex, the dynamics
appear to be entering a new phase.“[13]
The consolidation of Chinese military power on the continent
combined with the already considerable economic influence makes Africa a
forward-base for Beijing to project power directly
towards North America and Europe and constitutes a threat to US hegemony and Europe’s
position in international affairs.
China has already eclipsed the World Bank
and IMF as world’s largest source of development credit to the rest of the
world. In 2020 and 2021 the sharp deterioration of the BRI’s loan portfolio was observed. It
was driven mainly by pandemic but also flaws in the programme’s design and
caused China’s first overseas debt crisis. Implementation of infrastructure projects
financed by China’s two big policy banks and its state-owned commercial banks
was often speed up by absence of
environmental and social impact studies that would help decrease the risk. Another
design shortcoming is the selection of risky key debtors such as Russia,
Angola, Ecuador, Sri Lanka, Zambia, Iran Pakistan, Venezuela and
Argentina. Deteriorating financial conditions in
debtor countries plus project-specific problems necessitated, in 2020 and 2021,
renegotiations of loans of the total value of $52 milliards.[14]
The renegotiations mostly involved loan write-offs, deferred payment schedules
and reductions in interest rates.
“However, the allegation that the Chinese government deliberately put
countries in the BRI into a debt trap is not based on solid evidence. Academic
studies on China’s overseas lending by three institutions have provided data
that suggests this claim may be inaccurate. The Center for Global Development
finds that the “BRI is unlikely to cause a systemic debt problem in the regions
of the initiative’s focus”. The data from the China-Africa Research Initiative
at Johns Hopkins University shows that non-Chinese lenders still held the
majority of the debt in 17 countries that the International Monetary Fund (IMF)
identified as in or at risk of “debt distress”. Based on their studies of
China’s investments in Latin America and the Caribbean, researchers at the
Global Development Policy Center concluded that Chinese loans alone did not
cause these countries to go above the IMF’s debt-sustainability thresholds.
Venezuela is the only exceptional case.”[15]
Despite the criticism China has
managed to increase its global attractiveness and drastically changed its picture of a dangerous country to
a constructive player in many parts of the world “Kurlantzick (2007) describes
China's increasing presence in the world and the influence of soft power
throughout the world as a ‘charm offensive'. He was shocked to learn that in
South East Asia, Africa, Central Asia and Latin America, China's influence in
local communities is spreading. Even in Australia, which is considered the
closest country to the U.S., nearly 70% of Australians have a positive opinion
of China.”[16]
Big infrastructural project s can change the fate of the undeveloped countries
that often are overlooked by big global creditors. They create the jobs, secure
the undisturbed transportation of people, natural resources (especially oil)
and other cargo and can increase commercial attractiveness of the country. The establishment
of economic cooperation zones, increased technology exchanges, and employment
opportunities grow the national economies, increase the prosperity and foster
economic and social changes. As part of BRI initiative, China offers those
countries exactly what they are craving immediate financial help, speedy
development, understanding of their internal problems and political backup with
no questions asked.
Conclusion:
Alex He argues that the debt-trap accusation fails to
understand the essential part of why China’s investments in BRI projects caused
debt distress. He states that BRI projects originated in China’s
long-established state-driven overseas investment mode which typically can lead
to many problems and risks, including non-transparency, corruption, lack of
local participation and lower economic efficiency. The SOEs and state-owned
banks treating the BRI as a political task, the economic returns and debt
sustainability of the investments are not the top priorities for them and low
economic efficiency and debt risks are inherently caused by soft budget
constraints and guaranteed government bail-out.
On top of this most of the BRI countries offer an unfavourable
investment environment with a higher political and economic costs, and high
risk of default. Extra risks to Chinese investments is added by fact that
Beijing is ready to drop some necessary requirements in order to beat the
competition and over a short span of time invest huge amount of loans and investments in one country that
is not capable of absorbing it.
China cannot be exclusively blamed for problems resulting from the
implementation of BRI, this approach only allows domestic elites to evade
accountability. The so-called debt trap is the result of the actions of both
parties of investment agreements, but this fact is often neglected when
assessing Beijing’s initiative. China’s development financing system is recipient-driven
and it is typically initiated by foreign governments and rely
on host-country governance, China could not simply force other nations to
accept projects on their territory. Terms and conditions have to be agreed
on the both sides and recipients have to allow Chinese SOE to undertake the
projects, therefore they are not hapless victims, but active participants in
shaping outcomes. From this perspective it is clear that Beijing is not driven
purely by some grand “evil” strategy but its actions are an effect of
adaptation of Chinese business interests into the ‘development strategies’
of recipient countries.
Many
developing countries have limited capacity to assess projects’ viability
or ensure their appropriate governance and rational development planning
is often overwhelmed by greed and protecting the interests of powerful
minorities. However it is also responsibility of their governments to ensure
that projects are viable and financially sustainable and have developmental
benefits for local people. Since relationship with Beijing it is a business
contract and China is driven by profit making, recipients should bargain harder
to make sure that deal benefits both sides. They should also be accountable for
their domestic regulations and enforcement capacities.
BRI
responds to the genuine need of countries often overlooked by multilateral
development agencies due their poor credit score or unstable regime and its
high risk appetite is creating unique and hard to resist opportunities. However
Chinese development financing has several pathologies such as weak governance,
poor planning and inadequate due diligence driven by desperate need for
contracts that often yields poor results at high cost to both parties. Without
the initiative, willingness and cooperation of the recipient countries BRI’s
project financing would never be implemented. Dependence on the decision of the third party
negates existence of the Chinese coherent geopolitical aims it also indicates
that debt problem of the recipient countries is largely self-inflicted.
So called
“debt-trap diplomacy” is the result by the intersection between powerful
political and business interests seeking to exploit the BRI for gain and
associated governance shortcomings on the Chinese and recipient
sides. China may not be luring
developing countries into debt dependency but it is skilfully manipulating the
outcome of the recipient financial troubles for its political gains.
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[8] McBride James, Berman Noah, Chatzky Andrew; “China’s Massive Belt and Road Initiative”; https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/chinas-massive-belt-and-road-initiative
[9] Krukowska Monika; „China’s ‘one belt, one road’
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[10] He Alex; “The Belt and Road Initiative: Motivations,
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of Infrastructure, Policy and Development (2020) Volume 4 Issue 1. DOI:
10.24294/jipd.v4i1.1180; https://systems.enpress-publisher.com/index.php/jipd/article/view/1180/895
[11] Steil Benn; “Belt and Road Tracker”; Council on
Foreign Relations; https://www.cfr.org/article/belt-and-road-tracker
[12] McBride James, Berman Noah, Chatzky Andrew; “China’s Massive Belt and Road Initiative”; https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/chinas-massive-belt-and-road-initiative
[13] Tanchum Michael “China’s new military base in Africa: What it means
for Europe and America” 14 Dec 2021; https://ecfr.eu/article/chinas-new-military-base-in-africa-what-it-means-for-europe-and-america/
[14] “China’s emerging Belt and Road debt crisis” 27
July 2022; https://www.ft.com/content/eb2d89f6-afd1-491e-b753-863e9727f6de
[15] He Alex; “The Belt and Road Initiative: Motivations,
financing, expansion and challenges of Xi’s ever-expanding strategy”; Journal
of Infrastructure, Policy and Development (2020) Volume 4 Issue 1. DOI:
10.24294/jipd.v4i1.1180; https://systems.enpress-publisher.com/index.php/jipd/article/view/1180/895
[16] Premarathna
P.K.B. Isuru; „China’s Economic soft power and Challenges in OBOR Project: a
Study Based on China”; International Journal of Research and Innovation in
Social Science (IJRISS) |Volume V, Issue III, March 2021|ISSN 2454-6186; https://www.rsisinternational.org/journals/ijriss/Digital-Library/volume-5-issue-3/472-482.pdf
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