Will Putin be able to persuade Lukashenko to directly involve the Belarusian army in the war with Ukraine?

 Will Putin be able to persuade Lukashenko to directly involve the Belarusian army in the war with Ukraine?

 

By: Nika Chitadze

Professor of the International Black Sea University

      

Director of the Center for International Studies 

President of the George C. Marshall Alumni Union, Georgia - International and Security Research Center  

As is known, Russian President Putin flew to Minsk on December 19 with his "landing" - Minister of Defense Shoigu and Minister of Foreign Affairs Lavrov, and held very serious talks with his Belarusian counterpart Lukashenko, which could greatly influence the course of the Russian-Ukrainian war in the next two to three months. 

The details of Putin's visit to the capital of Belarus were shrouded in secrecy - motorcades of Russian and US presidents usually use two identical armored limousines, which constantly change places in the motorcade to make it difficult for potential attackers of that particular limousine. Identification in which, at that moment, target number one - the president - is present.

A similar method is used by the US Secret Service during the visits of the President's plane, "Board Number One" to the airports of other countries - two identical huge Boeing-747s land one after the other so that a potential terrorist lurking near the airport with a "needle" or "Stinger" cannot guess the location of the President.

During his visit to Minsk, Putin's security service "outsmarted" everyone and flew three identical four-engine Il-96s from Moscow and St. Petersburg at the same time, so that everyone was confused as to which plane Putin was going to fly to Minsk with Lukashenko, which should indicate that The main inhabitant of the Kremlin is seriously concerned about the issue of personal security, although he has an excuse for this because Ukrainian saboteurs have directly organized attacks even on the most secure objects of Russia.

What became known after the next Putin-Lukashenko "hug" (which was observed with great fear, both in Ukraine and in the West)?

The Russian and Belarusian militaries have been conducting joint military exercises for a long time, but will this develop into a joint military operation against Ukraine?

Here are the main results expressed by the participants of this bilateral meeting:

 

o First - the forces of the joint Russian-Belarusian regional grouping will continue their joint military exercises and training, including on the territory of Belarus.

o Second - the Belarusian army put operational-tactical "Iskander-M" missile complexes and "S-400" type long-range anti-aircraft missile systems on combat duty.

o Third - Belarusian military pilots will be retrained in Russia so that they can use "special ammunition" ie nuclear-tipped missiles and aviation bombs.

In military matters, none of the three vocal agreements reached was unexpected - Russian-Belarusian combat units have been conducting joint military maneuvers for years, Russian Iskanders and S-400s have been on Belarusian soil for the second year, and nuclear weapons have been used by Belarusian pilots. The information given on the exercise is more aimed at another "nuclear intimidation" by the West than at real action.

Does it mean that Putin flew to Minsk after a three-year hiatus only to discuss these not-very-first-rate issues with Lukashenko?

Of course not, because everyone is waiting for the answer to the main question - did Putin persuade Lukashenko that in the event of a repeated ground attack on Ukraine from the territory of Belarus, the Belarusian army will also stand by the side of the attacking Russian army?

aimed more at another "nuclear intimidation" by the West than Neither Moscow nor Minsk is going to give a direct answer to this, however, after the talks with Putin, President Lukashenko made a somewhat strange and at the same time thought-provoking proposal while talking to journalists - I think people will appreciate the decision we made here and our strategy.

But does this hint mean that the Belarusian army will also be physically involved in Russia's military aggression against Ukraine?

It is a fact that in two or three months, the Russian authorities will try to repeat the attack on Ukraine from several directions on February 24, 2022, to try again to capture the capital of Ukraine - Kyiv, and overthrow the Ukrainian government, and at the same time, to block the road and railway communications from the west to the east of Ukraine, so that the NATO member states Weapons brought into Ukraine from the borders of Poland, Slovakia or Romania cannot reach the front line.

 

To successfully implement both of these operational ideas, the Russian General Staff will need to repeat ground attacks from the territory of Belarus, from which Kyiv is not even hundreds of kilometers away, as well as transport communications from Lviv to the east are relatively easily accessible.

The missile and air strikes carried out by the Russian military from the territory of Belarus will not stop the Ukrainian cities, but if, after a year of repeating the ground attack, the Russian tanks that attacked from the border of Belarus again, this time the Belarusian flagmen will also come to their side, this will be a heavy blow for the defenders of Ukraine, as well as for the Belarusians themselves. , because it will turn out that their Lukashenko, who was "brought to his knees" by Putin, to keep the chair of the president, divided the centuries-old friendly Ukrainian and Belarusian nations against each other, which the main resident of the Kremlin managed with great "success" before that between the Russian and Ukrainian peoples.