EU crisis approach toward Ukraine in 2014-2022
This
article has been produced within the scope of Global Governance internship
under supervision of Assoc Prof. Dr. Nino Kereselidze
Abstract
European Union’s cooperation with Ukraine has deep roots. The recent war in Ukraine has once again put the EU in the position to be actively involved in crisis management processes in order to assist Ukraine, ensure peace and security on European continent and halt the recent and future possible aggression coming from Russia. Throughout the time, specifically from 2014 till 2022 the EU has undergone through some changes, which were mostly caused by Russian open conflict in Ukraine in 2014 and 2022 to violate its sovereignty and territorial integrity.
The research aims to understand how the EU crisis approach has transformed during the Russian military aggression in Ukraine in 2022 compared to the 2014 military conflict. The study will try to investigate how the EU has changed its security and energy policy in accordance with the latest crises, how it differs from 2014 policy during the Crimea annexation, how the EU member states felt the war on their national level, whether they tried to bring their national sensitivities to be addressed on EU level, and last but not the least, what opportunities the war brought to the EU states and Ukraine. The possible outcome is to show the increased role of the EU as a regional organization with future more comprehensive and firmer policies in the terms of security and defense. Analyzing the recent EU crisis management process should reveal the new “face” of the EU.
Within the research methodology, several data collection techniques were used. The research has analyzed the latest articles, papers, and works on the topic, including examining EU official reports and documents, however, it should be mentioned that there are no accumulated academic works around the issue. Furthermore, interviews with experts from the International Relations field gave some deeper insight and an understanding of the topic from different perspectives. Furthermore, interviews with experts from the International Relations field, particularly Rehor Pavlina, political adviser at the political section of the EU Delegation to Ukraine, European External Action Service, and Nika Chitadze, an expert in International relations and Director of the Center for International Studies gave some deeper insight as well as an understanding of the topic from the different points of view.
The paper is divided into several sections. The first section of the work overviews the ongoing military confrontation in Ukraine, the second section examines the EU crises management during the recent war, the third section highlights the EU crisis response in 2014 and makes a comparison with the recent policy, the following part studies the EU states reaction as separate entities , the fifth section analyzes the opportunities the war has brought to the EU states and Ukraine, and the last section concludes the paper. The paper covers the period from 2014 to 2022, however, resources published about the recent events are limited due to its recentness, and there are no academically valid papers that could discuss the issue in-depth since the theme was not studied before. This gives more academic importance to the paper for the future usage among researchers, scholars, students, and any interested person.
Keywords
European Union, Ukraine, Russia, Crimea, EU members, War
The war in Ukraine has led to many changes in the world. If it was believed before that the world order was already set, it was once again shaken. Ukraine emerged as a state that has already reached some high level of statehood with obvious identity and unity with the aim to maintain territorial integrity and sovereignty.
The paper studies the EU crises approach during the recent war in Ukraine and how it has transformed since 2014 Russian aggression in Ukraine. We observed the EU has become more consolidated and principal toward ensuring the peace and security of the European region, and particularly, being resilient against the threat coming from Russia. The EU states are examined within the different three groups: the first category composes of the major powers such as Germany, and France, which are mostly formulating the EU policies, the second grouping involves relatively smaller and weaker states, however, with high activity and interests to address the Russian challenge, namely Baltic states, Poland, Czech Republic and the third group includes states with less activity during the formation of EU crises management policy regarding the current war, specifically Hungary. How EU states respond to the crisis on their national and EU level is important to analyze for a better understanding of the transformation process the EU has experienced. Moreover, the war has created some opportunities for the European states, such as economic diversification, and military modernization, and for Ukraine bigger European support to proceed with the EU accession process.
On February 24, 2022, Russian Federation started the full-scale war on the soil of Ukraine. Attacks were carried out across Ukraine in many cities such as Berdyansk, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, Odesa, Sumy, Mariupol, the capital Kyiv, and so on. Putin with imperial ambitions does to want to come out of the war with a “loser” status and tries to bring as much damage to Ukraine as possible. That’s not the first time Russia lunches military aggression in post-soviet space, namely the war in Georgia in 2008 and in Crimea in 2014, however, they did not have as big scale as the current one. Russia continues to have expansionist and imperialist intentions in a very brutal and uncivilized manner ignoring the post war consequences. The conflicts in Ukraine in 2014 and in 2022 differ on some apparent level with the acuteness and the degree of involvement of the international community.
To understand the acuteness of this aggression, we should remark some important events. Russians have used thermobaric weapons known as vacuum bombs in Ukraine. The United Kingdom Ministry of Defence has tweeted: “The Russian MoD has confirmed the use of the TOS-1A weapon system in Ukraine. The TOS-1A uses thermobaric rockets, creating incendiary and blast effects.” (The UK Ministry of Defence, 2022) The use of vacuum bombs is not illegal in particular situations but is restricted against civilians under the Geneva Convention. Another obvious breach of international law is the tragedy in Bucha in late March. The world has seen another horrible massacre. Approximately 300 people were found killed, some with tied hands behind their backs and shot in their heads, girls and women raped and beaten, lot of them tortured and executed and that’s not only Bucha. President Zelensky has stated that’s the way Russian mothers are raising their children as future looters and butchers. He also addressed the west for the appeasement politics toward Russia for 14 years, which left the Ukrainians in a “grey zone”, which Russia perceives as his backyard. President Zelensky does not blame the west directly but at the same time he is pointing out the Bucharest Summit in 2008 when Ukraine with Georgia was not given the Membership Action Plan to advance with their NATO aspirations. (Ministry of Defence of Ukraine, 2022)
The international community considers Russia should be brought in front of the International Criminal Court ICC like Nazi Germany at the Nuremberg trials. (Aljazeera, 2022) The world has seen many other horrifying genocides all over continents, but none of them proved to be the last crimes against humanity, every time the lessons are not learned properly by international society to avoid further atrocities. High officials namely the President of the European Union Charles Michele, Joseph Borrell and many others within the EU have expressed their deep concerns, condemned the mass killings and expressed the necessity to document all war crimes. Charles Michele wrote on Twitter:
“Shocked by haunting images of atrocities committed by the Russian army in Kyiv liberated region #Bucha Massacre
EU is assisting Ukraine & NGO’s in gathering of necessary evidence for pursuit in international courts.” (Charles Michel, 2022)
Ukraine has already reported thousands of deaths and injured, including women and children. Virally spread videos and pictures of Ukrainian children in prisons, streets, and shelters have been viewed by the world, but in Russia propaganda is so strong that population mostly hears and watches nothing but ballet on their TVs. More than 7 million people from Ukraine had to leave their houses and go to other countries. Poland, Romania and the Republic of Moldova are the top states by the number of receiving the Ukrainian refuges. The ongoing migrant crisis is huge for Europe, based on UN data of June 7, 2022 it has received around 5 million Ukrainian refugees (UNCHR, 2022) European governments, NGOs and others agencies are trying to prepare for hosting the refugees. The effort put in by the UN, EU, and NATO is comparatively large. The loss brought by the war is immense, infrastructure can be built but the loss of humanity won’t be forgotten.
EU Today - Crises Management During the 2022 War
Russia has a hybrid war in Ukraine besides the war on the ground, that’s why the West response should be very comprehensive. Europe started to pursue the conventional way of fighting with Russia with “carrots” at the first stage of the war while Russia traditionally preferred fighting with “sticks”. European Union was very much focused on humanitarian aid, however, as the conflict prolonged EU states considered it their responsibility to support with military means. Meanwhile, the EU has been actively providing financial assistance to Ukraine through different projects, most notably 9 billion Euro was proposed by the European Commission for dealing with the Russian invasion and post-war reconstruction.
Furthermore, to analyze the diplomatic response of the west to the Russian aggression more than 325 Russian diplomats and Embassy staff have been expelled. (The Guardian, 2022) Namely, by March 30, 2022, Belgium has expelled 21 diplomats, Netherlands-17, Ireland-4 senior officials, Poland-45, and Czech Republic-1 Russian diplomat. (France 24, 2022) On April 4th, after the brutality in Bucha Germany decided to declare 40 Russian diplomats as persona non grata, France has kicked out 35 diplomats, Italy- 30, Spain-25, Sweden-3, Denmark-15, while Lithuania has removed the Russian Ambassador from the office. (ALJAZEERA, 2022) Declaring diplomats non-grata may have some real consequences, some Russian diplomats were noticed to be part of Russian intelligence, providing information to Kremlin and thus breaching their official duties. It is crucial that the west impedes the Russian mechanism of acquiring information which is later on used for propaganda.
Moreover, it is obvious that the diplomatic moves are not strong enough for stopping Russia. Sanctions adopted by the European Union are also important leverage for weakening the aggressor and that is well understood within the union. “It is not only Ukraine that is under attack. International law, rules-based international order, democracy and human dignity are also under attack. This is geopolitical terrorism, pure and simple.” (Council of the EU, 2022) These words belong to Charles Michel and represent the stance of the EU regarding the Russian aggression toward Ukraine. The EU has introduced a series of sanctions against Russia aimed to weaken it as much as possible. EU leaders since the beginning of the aggression condemned this unjustified and unprovoked war and demanded Russia cease the military aggression right away, withdraw its troops and respect Ukraine’s territorial integrity and international law. However, as expected, Russia does not take it into account. EU leaders held the meetings and consultations continuously to discuss the existing situation. On meeting in Versailles on 10-11 March they agreed unanimously that threat coming from Russia is a threat to the European and global peace and security. Furthermore, they:
- “pledged to boost ties with Ukraine and support it along the European path
- welcomed the decision of the prosecutor of the International Criminal Court to open an investigation
- called for the safety and security of Ukraine’s nuclear facilities to be ensured immediately
- confirmed their readiness to move quickly with further sanctions
- stated that the EU and its member states would continue to provide coordinated political, financial, material and humanitarian support
o committed to continue to show solidarity and provide support to the refugees and the countries hosting them” (European Union, 2022)
The EU has been involved in crisis management in different forms such as humanitarian aid, reception of refugees, Ukraine Solidarity Trust Fund, financial assistance, assisting Ukrainian armed forces, as well as assisting member states to host refugees. The EU sanctions composes of five packages since the beginning of the war. The first package introduced on 23 February 2022 includes:
o “individual sanctions against members of the Russian State Duma who voted in favor of the recognition, among others
o restrictions on economic relations with the non-government-controlled areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts
o restrictions on Russia's access the EU’s capital and financial markets and services” (European Union, 2022)
The second package of sanctions issued on 25 February expanded the list of individual sanctions, Vladimir Putin and Serge Lavrov were among them, covered sanctions on financial, energy, technology and transport sectors and halted the visa facilitation provisions for Russian diplomats and businesspeople.
On 28 February EU adopted a new third package of sanctions, some of the most important restraints were:
- “closure of EU airspace to all Russian-owned aircraft
o a ban on the transactions with the Russian Central Bank
o a SWIFT ban for seven Russian banks
o a prohibition on the provision of euro-denominated banknotes to Russia
o the suspension of broadcasting in the EU of state-owned outlets Russia Today and Sputnik
o impose sanctions against Belarus in response to its involvement in Russia’s military invasion” (European Union, 2022)
The fourth package expanded the individual sanctions further, most notably Roman Abramovich and German Khan. The ban was made on new investments in the energy sector and on all transactions with particular state-owned businesses. In addition, iron, luxury goods and steel were prohibited to be traded.
On April 8, 2022. The fifth package of sanctions includes six main components: coal ban, after which Russia will lose about €8 billion in revenue per year, financial measures-freezing four Russian banks, prohibition of high-value crypto-asset services; transportation; targeted export bans; extending import bans and excluding Russia from public contracts and European money; legal clarifications and enforcement (European Commission, 2022)
The number of sanctions on Russia has raised dramatically from 225 sanctions on individuals and entities according to Sept 10, 2021, to 1171 sanctions based on April 8, 2022 data. The graph below shows that the number of sanctions on entities has almost doubled while for individuals it has been raised more than 9 times from September 10, 2021, to April 8, 2022. European Union has been very tough on Russia, though, this did not impede Russia to proceed with its “peace-making” operation in Ukraine. Putin approximately after a month of war announced on television that all goals and objectives of the Russian operation in Ukraine will be indeed fulfilled. (Thebault, 2022) The EU has issued the fifth package of sanctions after five days from this statement. Putin does not understand or does not want to understand the consequences for Russia, or he realizes all sacrifices but does not care that much, which puts Russian population in a very poor condition.
At the same time, Russia is the most sanctioned country in the world after the military aggression in Ukraine in 2022 with 5,581 active sanctions by March 9, 2022. The title was taken from Iran which had 3,616 active sanctions. However, the number of sanctions on Russia should be increase since March. (Zandt, 2022)
EU has sanctioned not only Russia but also Belarus. This vast country used by Russia for its interests became the subject of the Council sanctions, which mostly targeted the financial sector. Some of the measures were SWIFT ban, restrictions on transactions with Central Bank of Belarus
Besides the sanctions that should have in long term more and more devastating effect on Russian economic, social and political life, EU’s Strategic Compass policy is also worth mentioning. In terms of transformation in EU’s security and defense policy it is ambitious step, approved on March 21, 2022. Compared to the 2016 EU Global Strategy this policy is adopted not on the EU institutional level but on a national level, which gives the EU states leading power. Whether the policy is successful will be depended on the member states’ ambitions, efforts and level of engagement. Hopes that this is not just another paper adopted for the sake of rhetoric is high within the union, but only time will reveal whether the vision was achieved or remained part of the blueprint. Four main pillars of Strategic Compass: act, invest, partner, and secure aims to strengthen the EU’s capacity to be a security provider in the region, especially when the European soil, particularly Ukraine, has become once again the battleground. The EU has adopted this policy as a “complementary to NATO”, if we compare what the union was and what it has become, it’s obvious the EU has very much widened organizaational framework. As a part of the plan in case of a crisis the EU will deploy 5000 troops, and 200 fully equipped CSDP mission experts within 30 days, they will also carry out live exercises on land and at sea, strengthen military mobility, and so on. Josep Borrell, High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, has stated: “The threats are rising and the cost of inaction is clear. The Strategic Compass is a guide for action. It sets out an ambitious way forward for our security and defense policy for the next decade. It will help us face our security responsibilities, in front of our citizens and the rest of the world. If not now, then when?” Thus, the Strategic Compass, if it operates efficiently, should strengthen the EU as the union and as the regional power in terms of maintaining peace and security. (Council of the European Union, 2022)
EU Response to Ukraine in 2014
Now to recall the measures the EU has taken during the 2014 Russian aggression in Ukraine, it is important to note that it composed only soft measures, which were not enough for halting Russian aggression in 2022. In the interview with Nika Chitadze, who is a Professor at International Black Sea University and director of the Center for International Studies, highlights that the EU actions taken in 2014 were weak, giving the green light to Russia to act impudently. EU states made a more pragmatic decision, not refusing the import of Russian oil and gas in order to avoid the socio-economic damage within their countries, which led to the current war. He believes that setting economics above the EU morality and politics was a mistake. However, the opposite tendency is noticed nowadays by the EU. (Chitadze, 2022) Rehor Pavlina, political adviser at the political section of the EU Delegation to Ukraine, European External Action Service, considers the difference between the EU crisis approach in 2014 and in 2022 is huge in terms of actions, meaning the sanctions and rhetoric of EU leaders as well as of EU member states' leaders. According to her, the recent rhetoric speaks more for Ukraine to win the war rather than seeking some compromises, bloodiness of this war has also led bitter response from the EU which was different in 2014. (Rehor Pavlina, 2022)
Now to mention what the EU has done to meet the 2014 crisis, in terms of diplomatic measures the EU suspended the G8 Summit in Sochi, a planned EU-Russia summit, bilateral talks with Russia about visa matters, and the New Agreement. (European Union, 2022)
Furthermore, it is remarkable that the EU stands the most courageous steps during the crisis, on 27 June 2014, the EU signed the Association Agreement with Ukraine, as well as with Georgia and the Republic of Moldova. The Association Agreement creating the free trade area under the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) was a big step ahead for the Ukrainian integration into the EU. (European Commission, 2015) “These are not just any other agreements - but milestones in the history of our relations and for Europe as a whole. In Kyiv and elsewhere, people gave their lives for this closer link to the European Union. We will not forget them." says the first permanent President of the European Council Herman Van Rompuy. (European Council, 2014) Similarly, in 2022 EU gets assured once again that the need for Ukraine to be in their alliance is crucial, and gives them EU Membership Questionnaire, alongside Moldova and Georgia. We can say the Association Agreement with its significance was the highest form of relations between Ukraine and the EU until 2022. War itself creates opportunities, and Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova saw this opportunity of open door to the EU.
To continue discussing EU restrictive measures, we should not forget about EU travel bans and asset freezes on individuals and entities, import bans on goods originating in Crimea or Sevastopol, and economic sanctions on specific economic sectors and individuals, the embargo on trade in arms. For instance, on June 26, 2014, four specific steps have been determined by the EU to be taken by Russia and the separatists. These four were:
• “agreement on a verification mechanism monitored by the OSCE, for respect of the cease-fire and effective border control
• return to the Ukrainian authorities of three border checkpoints
• release of hostages including all of the OSCE observers
• launch of substantial negotiations on the implementation of President Poroshenko's peace plan.” (European Council, 2014)
However, these steps from Russia have not been taken and the EU has remained once again in the position where its requirement is not strong enough for Russia. Further 6 restrictive measures have been adopted on July 16, which suspended new financing operations by EIB in Russia, halted the EU bilateral relations with Russia regarding the cooperation programs, limited access to sensitive technologies, restricted the investments in Crimea and Sevastopol and so on. (European Council, 2014)
Ukraine in total received more than 12 975 Million Euro as a form of EU financial support policy, including the Annual Action Plan, Umbrella Programme (“more for more”), Neighborhood Investment Facility, most notably Macro-Financial Assistance from IMF, as well as from EIB and EBRD. (European Court of Auditors, 2016)
Source of financing Indicative amounts | Indicative amounts (million euro) |
I. EUROPEAN COMMISSION (2014-2020) | |
I.1 Overall development assistance (grants) | 1 565 |
Bilateral allocation (mainly European Neighbourhood Instrument): |
|
- Annual Action Programme (AAP) for 2014 | 140-200
|
- AAPs (average) - for 2015-2020 | 780
|
- Umbrella programme (‘more for more’) for 2015-2020 | 240-300 |
Neighbourhood Investment Facility | 200-250 |
Instrument contributing to Stability and Peace (IcSP) | 20 |
Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) | 15 |
I.2 Macro-financial assistance (loans)*
| 3410 |
II INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS |
|
EIB | up to 3000 |
EBRD | 5000 |
GRAND TOTAL | 12 975 |
*includes MFA loan (MFA III) of 1.8 billion euros granted in 2015
Source: EU assistance to Ukraine (europa.eu)
The EU has created ad hoc structures in order to meet the crisis in 2014-2015 and strengthen the cooperation between the EU and Ukraine. The two most important structures were the Support Group for Ukraine (SGUA) from the Commission and the EU Advisory Mission for Civilian Security Sector Reform (EUAM). These two initiatives involved groups of experts who assisted different structures and institutions in Ukraine to undertake reforms, for instance, SGUA expertise helped ministries in Ukraine to draft new reforms, that would be deep and systematic, as well as monitored and assisted Ukraine to meet Association Agreement provisions. (European Court of Auditors, 2016)
Last but not the least, an interesting point Rehor Pavlina mentioned in the interview regarding the differences is a “surprise factor”, the west was caught by surprise in 2014 when Russia annexed Crimea, while this time they have been observing the Russian build-up at the borders, thus they have more time for discussing the potential threat and potential response to the crisis.
So, the EU as the most significant regional power on the European continent through diplomatic measures, sanctions, and financial and humanitarian assistance tried to address the Russian challenge in 2014 but whether it was a success is under the doubt keeping in mind that Ukraine is facing bloody war recently, ambitions of Kremlin has gone a way beyond the EU’s expectations.
The EU States Response to the Ukrainian War
This section discusses how the EU members as separate entities understood the conflict on their national level, and what were their responses. I would like to divide them into three groups according to their level of involvement on the national level during the crises. The first group would compose of major EU powers such as Germany and France. The second group would be relatively weaker and smaller states who are actively contributing to support Ukraine, these states would be Baltic states, Central and Eastern Europe except Hungary. And the last set would unite states more or less indifferent to the situation, such as Hungary. However, it should be highlighted that the recent response of the EU states as the one was more resolute in spite of their different geographical position, history, policies, and issues.
European Conventional Great Powers
The role of European conventional powers such as Germany and France, besides the United Kingdom, has been immense and this has not been changed. Their national decisions are very much affecting European geopolitics. To start by examining the transformations in Germany, it was very often referred to the wake up of Europe. Many consider that the moves Germany made during the war in Ukraine were very unexpected and influential, changing the whole foreign policy of Germany from nonintervention politics to active involvement. Moreover, as Benjamin Haddad, a senior director of the Europe Center at the Atlantic Council, stated such rapid changes should be not only political and economic but also a psychological shock for Putin, considering their former partnership and economic linkages. (Haddad, 2022) Chancellor of Germany Olaf Scholz in his speech before the Bundestag on February 24, 2022 made it very clear that Germany chose the right side of history which takes sacrifices and requires some prominent changes in the course of foreign policy as well as in domestic politics. He considers the Russian invasion of Ukraine is a turning point for the European continent (Deutsche Welle, 2022).
In Berlin, it is believed that Russia has become the main threat to the peace and it needs to be weakened in every possible way, especially, politically and economically through financial isolation and halting all kinds of links with them. Germany has believed since the 1960s that having rational business relations with an autocratic regime would decrease the chances of war, however, it turned out not to be true for Russia. According to Stephen M. Walt, Robert & Renée Belfer, Professor of International Affairs at Harvard Kennedy School, liberal perceptions that structures like the EU, NATO, free market and liberal institutions throughout the West would ensure peace in Europe is only part of illusions. The typical autocratic regimes and great powers do not hesitate to use hard power as their strongest leverage. (Walt, 2022)
Moreover, Germany neglected a long tradition of not providing weapons in conflicting areas. They have provided 1000 anti-tank weapons and 500 Stinger anti-aircraft defense systems to Ukraine. The Chancellor has also announced € 100 billion of the 2022 budget for reconstructing the German army and pleaded to have more than 2% of gross domestic product GDP spent on the military, which is also at the same time the requirement of NATO. (Deutsche Welle, 2022) This will make Germany the first state in Europe according to military spending. Another prominent goal and at the same time a challenge for Germany is to become energy-independent from Russia. Russia provides half of its gas and coal and approximately a third of oil to Germany. Chancellor Olaf Scholz said in his speech “Yes, we will end this dependence -- as quickly as possible.” Increasing the share of renewable energy from sun and wind, and searching the alternatives are on their top agenda. (Nienaber, 2022) Germany expresses its readiness to pay the cost for freedom, in spite of such sacrifices.
Germany, the strongest player in Europe, leads the EU to be more consolidated and prepared. As the biggest contributor to the EU budget with an average of €31 billion a year, it leads the union to pass to the next level of development.
France as another traditional major power on the European continent seeks to take a lead in ending the war by approaching Putin with diplomatic means, President Macron’s visit to Moscow and hours of meeting with Putin prior to the war, phone calls, and talks to achieve the peace has failed. Putin knows European leaders well, while it turns out Europe and the world knows less about him. Macron’s attempts at the beginning of the war seemed hopeless, but once Russia sees they are not winning the war, then Putin may start negotiations more actively. France will always be around the negotiating table as a traditional diplomatic actor and whether Macron manages to lead these negotiations effectively will also determine his popularity and prestige both at the national and international levels.
France currently holding the presidency of the Council actively works to support Ukraine with the military, financial and humanitarian means, to strengthen the EU’s position in resolving the problem and enhancing the “European political community”. (France in the United States, 2022) Macron suggests new political union for non-EU states, "This new European organization would allow democratic European nations that adhere to our core values to find a new space for political cooperation, security, energy cooperation, transport, investment, infrastructure, movement of people," This is an alternative to the EU for Ukraine and other non-EU Eastern countries who are seeking to join the alliance. Whether this proposal would be welcomed among the countries time will judge, since the EU does not want to lower the standards of the union by joining the states who do not satisfy their requirements, otherwise, it will take a long time and huge effort for them to perform the “homework” of the EU completely. Additionally, Chancellor Olaf Scholz has expressed the proposal to be interesting, especially in the hard situation they are in. (euronews, 2022) New forms of alliances are usually created during the post-war periods, maybe this is also a time Europe should establish a new wider union, with Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia in it, but hopes should not get high until the EU is transforming into more substantial regional power. Whether Europe needs another organization is another issue that needs to be examined carefully.
Whatever happens, Germany and France as the biggest players in the EU and on the European continent will try to use all chances to be involved in the conflict management in the highest form possible, demonstrating once again their importance in forming a new political agenda for Europe next to other bigger players like the US, the UK, NATO, so on.
Being Relatively Small and Weak Does Not Exclude Being Influential
Other direct targets of Russian are states in Central and Eastern Europe, as well as Baltic nations, which are pursuing the Euro-Atlantic way of development and are in the process of building democratic institutions. That’s why Kremlin is so concerned and afraid, for example, Poland and the Czech Republic being part of the European Union as well as of NATO really bothers Russia. These states as part of western civilization are eager to prove how much this confrontation means to them, having a similar bloody past with Russia. However, they still realize if the autocratic regime of Putin won’t be stopped and weakened enough their sovereignty and legitimacy can be challenged. I would like to discuss several states who are not great powers but are very actively involved in supporting Ukraine in this war.
To begin with Poland, we should mention that the Polish government has assisted Ukraine with the military, humanitarian and financial means. Poland was the first state which sent military aid to Ukraine. Even before Russia started the military confrontations, the Polish government has expressed its readiness to assist Ukraine with weaponry, ammunition, drones like air R-73 missiles for MiG-29 fighter planes, light anti-tank weapons, FlyEye drones, Piorun man-portable air-defense systems, so on. Poland has taken the largest part of the refugees, more than 3.5 Ukrainian people, May 27th, 2022 data (UN, 2022). In addition, 8 billion zloty ($1.75 billion) was drafted by the Polish government for the Ukrainian refugees. (Strzelecki, 2022)
Besides Poland, the Czech Republic is actively involved in supporting Ukraine through humanitarian and military means. 12 million Euros worth of humanitarian assistance, MEDEVAC Program, medical packages, refugee support, Czech Railway trains, Information services, blood and plasma services (Embassy of the Czech Republic in Baku, 2022) alongside with military aid worth nearly 1 billion crowns ($45 million) including the T-72 tanks and BVP-1 infantry fighting vehicles are the governmental aid program to Ukraine. (Reuters, 2022) Furthermore, the Czech Republic strongly supports Ukraine’s European path, and for that reason, they have established an informal group of European friends of Ukraine, which will assist Ukraine politically and technically to fulfill their European wish. Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Czech Republic reports: “In their fight for freedom and democracy the Ukrainians are demonstrating that they are true Europeans in spirit and in deed.” (Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Czech Republic, 2022)
The Baltic states have proved their full-pledged solidarity toward Ukraine politically, economically and militarily. Baltic states have felt the war in Ukraine not only on an institutional but also on a societal level. Their past accompanied by the history of the Russian invasion of these three states in the 1940s made them more concerned about the Russian open aggression in Ukraine. Lithuanian, Estonian, and Latvian people are concerned about the potential spillover of Russian aggression on their territories from Russia or Belarus. These states have advocated very strongly with the EU to strengthen Ukraine by all means and weaken Russia as much as possible. For instance, Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda at the Constitutional Court in Vilnius has stated: “We are in favor of tough sanctions, and Lithuania will always be among those countries that will propose the most consistent, toughest sanctions, and we will make every effort to convince those states that have doubts or are sceptical,” (Lithuanian National Radio and Television, 2022)
Estonia has provided Javelin anti-tank weapons systems, munitions, medical and personal equipment, D-30 howitzers, a total of €220 million in military aid, additionally, humanitarian aid composed of food, medical and other kinds of assistance. (Ukrainian Military Center, 2022) Lithuania and Latvia delivered Stinger anti-aircraft missile systems, furthermore, Latvia provided 90 unmanned aerial vehicles, 30 truckloads of individual equipment, and supplies alongside the €1.2 million aid to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. (Army Recognition, 2022) Meanwhile, Lithuania has announced a further €10 million in military aid to Ukraine and €4 million in medical assistance. (Lithuanian National Radio and Television, 2022) So, these states have been lively involved in advocacy with the EU, so the union could get the strict measures against Russia.
It's Challenging to Have Everyone on the Same Board
There are some states within the EU who have more vague position than others. The reasons can be past experience, economic and/or political dependence on Russia or not very much consolidated democratic institutions within the country. For instance, the position of Hungary is neither warm nor cold with Ukraine, it plays the double standard game, having a close relation with Putin and at the same time being a member of the EU, thus upholding the EU values. The war usually reveals the things that were pushed to be hidden. Hungary led by the populist leader Viktor Orban, who is considered to be a pro-Russian leader by the west, has joined the sanctions of the EU. He considers Russia as an aggressor, and tried to arrange the meeting for President Putin, President Zelensky, France president Macron and German Chancellor Scholz to settle the conflict and find the common solution. However, this attempt is mostly considered cynical. Orban has made a red line about rejecting the import of gas and oil from Russia, he is even ready to pay in roubles, otherwise, it would “kill Hungary”. (euronews, 2022)
Hungary made it clear that they won’t provide military assistance to Ukraine. Only non-lethal can be transported through its territories, besides letting NATO troops to operate on their territory. (euronews, 2022) Orban does not have either a quite well attitude toward President Zelensky. He said President Zelensky "has a bad habit of telling everyone what to do. It would be better if he dropped that habit. It's unusual for someone in trouble to ask for help and tell you to help him, and if you don't help him, he'll tell you off." (euronews, 2022)
Besides Hungary Slovakia with a long history of friendly relations with Russia now is seeking an exception for putting the embargo on Russian energy resources. Slovakia is a small landlocked state which would need at least three years to switch away from Russian oil according to officials. They are not against the sanctions but the economic situation within the state does not let them to support the new sixth package of sanctions. (Moens, 2020) Similarly, Bulgaria prefers to be excluded from the EU sixth package on the Russian oil embargo. Some small EU states are not economically ready for such drastic changes, which is shared adequately within the alliance.
While interviewing Nika Chitadze, he mentioned that throughout history geographical location also played an important role for the European countries to remain in a neutral position with Russia. For instance, Spain, Portugal, and the Netherlands being far geographically from Russia ensured they did not take radical opposition toward Kremlin. In spite of that, they all understand what consequences Russia may have for the whole Europe, that’s why the EU became more consolidated than in 2014 or before.
War and its accompanying Opportunities
One of the biggest challenges the EU faces nowadays besides the Russian open aggression, is the dependence on Russian fossil fuels. The EU with 40% of gas, 27% of oil and 46% of coal imports from Russia in 2021 will not be able to rely on Russian fossil fuels anymore, for that reason, the EU should increase its resilience toward Russian markets. So far, the most valuable plan adopted by the EU is the REPower EU. The plan sets some vital steps in order to meet the European demand for energy supplies and phase out the Russian energy import. Diversification of gas supplies through increasing the imports of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) and pipelines from alternative markets and higher use of biomethane and hydrogen is the crucial part of the plan. Furthermore, rolling out the green energy like the solar and wind power, implementing the reforms by the members states for removing the obstacles to renewable energy projects and reducing the use of fossil energy at the level of individual entities, EU citizens, firms, industries, and so on, would be a good response of the EU to avoid a future crisis in the energy sector. (European Commission, 2022)
There are some EU states that have halted importing the Russian gas. Lithuania was the first EU state to stop the Russian gas completely on April 1st, followed by other Baltic states. (EURACTIV, 2022) Baltic nations call other states to act similarly, Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda has tweeted: “- Some #EU countries need time to break their energy ties with #Russia. I'm sure - we will get there. - Even when the war in #Ukraine is over we can't get back to business as usual. Europe's attitude towards Russia is changing dramatically.” (Nausėda, 2022) The German government also makes statements that they will stop importing Russian gas by the end of the year, even though the EU as the institution fails to get this decision together. Germany as the biggest importer of Russian gas is seeking alternatives, LNG from Qatar and gas from other European nations seem to be between them. Italy, the second biggest importer after Germany, pursues to get increased supplies from Algeria. (Nienaber, 2022)
Russia has also halted gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria after they denied to pay in roubles, Russia had the leverage to threaten the west by stopping the gas, but whether this would threaten them anymore does not seem quite realistic. Russia’s position as a great power that directs the behavior of the West is at the edge of the end. This war in Ukraine brought not only damage to the West but has created some opportunities as well. The West would not start serious actions to diversify their markets in near future but this war made them forced to seek the solution.
Besides the economic opportunities, new military opportunities have appeared. European states who have provided the weapons to Ukraine have been able to replace them with more modern equipment, which would increase their efficiency in terms of security. For instance, the Defense Ministry of Australia decided to buy and upgrade long-range strike missiles, Finland and Sweden are seeking to join the NATO thus guaranteeing their future peace and security, Poland plans to increase the defense spending and double the Polish army, Germany increased its military spending, Estonia hosts more British troops on its soils and purchases tanks and other military equipment. (Capital Public Radio, 2022) Therefore, the war in Ukraine has been opportunity for European states to modernize and advance their military capabilities, as well as decrease the energy dependence on Russia and thus enhance the diversification.
Opportunity beyond the destruction of Ukraine
Ukraine gets strong support from the European partners to join European Union. President Volodymyr Zelensky has highlighted several times that Ukrainian soldiers and people are fighting not only for their homeland but also for the peace of the whole Europe. Zelensky called the European Union under the emergency circumstances to get the immediate accession of Ukraine via special procedures. (Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 2022) Even though he knew this kind of quick accession procedure does not exist, he still made such demanding declarations. The EU officials gave very clear messages that Ukraine is part of Europe and their official request to become a member of the union on February 28, 2022, should be seriously discussed. (Treisman, 2022) Ursula von der Leyen told Euronews that Ukraine is "one of us and we want them in the European Union". (Mahon, 2022) However, their accession cannot be done within months and EU officials have noticed this. Candidate states need to fulfill rows of criteria. For instance, the latest member of the EU, Croatia needed 10 years for reforming and adopting new laws. Some of the most prominent EU requirements are having a free market economy, accepting the EU legislation, adopting EURO, and building a stable democracy with a rule of law. (European Union)
Rehor Pavlina in the interview has stated that Ukraine has made lots of progress, of course, there were setbacks in this way, but Ukraine has proved that they belong to the European family. She thinks Ukraine is still far from joining regarding the hot conflict and many other huge problems within the country but the decision the European Commission will make about the candidate status will be very much important for the country. Furthermore, leaders from Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia highlighted their support and wrote a letter where they mentioned that Ukraine deserves to acquire an immediate EU accession perspective. Although not everyone in the union has the same view. Charles Michel has stated that "different opinions and sensitivities" exist about the further enlargement among the EU members. The EU did express its readiness and support to the Ukrainian people, they are very appalled by the facts happening in Ukraine, but “sensitivities” and “different opinions” won’t be removed within a night.
We should take into consideration that Ukraine is approximately 50 years behind compared to other members of the European Union and the war is going to make it even harder for Ukraine to meet all EU requirements. Ukraine as an emerging free-market economy under the Russian bombs already faces severe economic issues, prices of energy and commodity increased dramatically, added prewar Covid-19 pandemic inflationary strikes. Closed and destroyed airports, ports, roads, and other infrastructure will take lots of resources, time, and energy to restore everything. (International Monetary Fund, 2022) Alexander Rodnyansky, an economic adviser to President Zelensky has stated that this war has a catastrophic result for their state as well as for the whole region, all kinds of production are stopped. The war always has a spillover effect and as David Malpass, the President of the World Bank said it was very bad timing for the war as the inflation in the world was already going up. (Josephs, 2022)
The EU states are seeking the recovery plan for Ukraine. Polish Prime Minister besides supporting fast accession of Ukraine to the European Union has stated that the EU should allocate EUR 100 billion for rebuilding Ukraine. (ukrinform.net, 2022) Ukraine will need years to restore everything, it is early to make predictions since the war is continuing, but what seems clear to the Ukrainian people as well as to the world is that there is a need for serious help from the international community. European Commission announced at least €500 million EU funding for humanitarian crises, moreover, they introduced an additional budget of €90 million for emergency humanitarian services for the civilians affected by the war in Ukraine. (European Commission, 2022) The recovery that will take years may expand the time for Ukraine to satisfy all EU requirements unless Ukraine will be treated under particular conditions.
To sum up, the European Union has undergone the changes that transformed the union into a more consolidated form. The union has to rethink its own policies, especially in terms of security field due to the new Russian threat to European soil and start working to advance their capabilities. European states as separate entities have also contributed to the EU level to advocate more need for unity and security. Germany, France, the Baltic, Central, and the Eastern States with some exceptions have been the key in formulating the EU response toward the Ukrainian war. Europe is trying to avoid the same mistake of not taking full responsibility to halt the Russian aggression in 2014, the EU’s policy which is more resolute and united, with the moral principles first, seems to be more promising for the new security order for Europe.
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