Written by: Nikoloz Chkhaidze
Nikoloz Chkhaidze is a Research Assistant to Dr. Taras Kuzio at the Henry Jackson Society think tank in London, UK. He is studying International Relations at the International Black Sea University and a research assistant to Dr. Nikolai Wenzel in International Political Economy. He was an Alumni of “The Fund for American Studies 2021 Croatia Program”.
After Putin declared war on Ukraine, in his famous speech on February 24th, where he labeled his war as a “special military operation to demilitarize and “denazify” Ukraine, to “prevent them from committing genocide in the Donbas”,[i] the whole world was wondering who would win the war and what effects the war would have on the post-war international political environment. In this policy brief, the author will try to analyze the role of Russia in international politics after Putin’s war in Ukraine. The author is going to use qualitative methods to analyze the effects that the war will have on Russia’s economy and international relations in general, and the author believes that the former aspect will play a crucial role in shaping Russia in the post-war era. The question that the author will try to answer is: How will a post-war Russia be different from a pre-war Russia in terms of its role in international politics?
The war itself has left
many experts and decision-makers in great ambiguity, since some of them could
not quite predict the right course of the war. Particularly, General Mark
Milley, who’s the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the United States,
stated on February 5th, that “Kyiv could fall within 72 hours if
Russia invaded Ukraine”.[ii]
Of course, that turned out to be outright false, since Kyiv did not fall and
what’s more is that the Ukrainians have conducted counteroffensive operations
in Russian-occupied Ukrainian territories on the East, returning their
territories in the process.
One could understand
why General Milley made such a statement, since, on paper, Russia spends ten
times more on defense and the military on general than Ukraine does, and Russia
has three times more artillery and ten times more aircrafts.[iii]
That is why, in theory, these numbers could be used to justify what General
Milley said about “the fall of Kyiv”.
In fact, Russia’s role
in international politics is becoming more and more isolated. Vladimir Putin
has isolated not only himself,[iv]
but the whole country from a Western civilization, which is slowly, but
steadily being backed up by China as well, since they do not wish to cooperate
with Russia and violate sanctions, imposed by the West.[v]
Russia’s role in the post-war international environment will largely be decided
hugely by the outcome of this war.
Nowadays, it’s more
than self-evident that Russia has failed at its quick offensive to “take Kyiv
as soon as possible and install a puppet, pro-Russian regime”. Ukrainians are,
in fact, winning this war, since they managed to stall a Russian so-called
“Blitzkrieg”, according to the reports, published by Western intelligence
agencies.[vi]
A military scholar, Frederick Kagan wrote in a brief, published by the
Institute for the Study of War (ISW), that Russian invasion was indeed unsuccessful
and they are actually losing this war.[vii]
Russians are losing this war because of many reasons, including but not limited
to – lack of morale in the Russian military, unpreparedness, first days
bravado, Western superiority in logistics, Ukrainian resilience, outdated
Russian military equipment, lack of military supplies in the ranks of Russian
soldiers, etc.[viii] After
Putin failed to take Kyiv, he shifted his focus away from the capital of
Ukraine to the eastern front, where the “Battle of Donbas” has started in
mid-April, and yet still, Ukraine has been able to hold off the attacks from
its eastern front.[ix]
Furthermore, Ukrainians advanced in the Northern part of Ukraine and they have
successfully liberated Kharkiv from the grips of the occupants.[x]
In the fact of Russia being
isolated from the world community, demonstrated by the fact that the General
Assembly of the UN passed a resolution, condemning Putin’s war in Ukraine by a
141-5 margin, Russia is also being sanctioned by the democratic world in the
West and in Eastern Hemisphere as well. EU and NATO members have supported
Ukraine in its struggle against Russia. However, this does not apply to
everyone when it comes to supporting Ukraine in practice. Hungary and Turkey
have refused to implement sanctions on Russia, as Turkey wants to benefit from
trade and security issues with Russia,[xi]
and Hungary “cannot afford” from their point of view, to impose sanctions,
since it will violate their energy security.[xii]
The Russian invasion of Ukraine also encouraged Germany to reverse its stance
on low defense spending. They have, in fact, switched from their pacifist
narrative and supported Ukraine, whilst at the same time, ramping up the
rhetoric about significantly increasing the defense budget of Germany, and they
have vowed to remove their energy dependence on Russia and natural gas to
renewable energy, right after they blocked the approval of Nord Stream II gas
pipeline.[xiii] Other
European countries are following the same path, as they’ve promised to get rid
of gas imports from Russia by the end of the year. The United Kingdom has been
very loyal to that particular position.[xiv]
It’s self-evident that Russia
has completely undermined its interest abroad by invading Ukraine, both in
terms of “business partnership” with the West, as well as its economic and
security interests domestically and externally. Specifically, Putin invaded
Ukraine since he was scared of NATO expansion near its border, and in fact, we
saw how his invasion of Ukraine, which was meant to “deter” the expansion of
NATO, did the exact opposite. Sweden and Finland are taking a huge interest in
joining NATO, since they felt threatened by the Russian Federation’s imperialist
aspirations. Sweden is currently in the process of following the very same path
Finland chose, which is announcing its intentions to join NATO. It’s quite
ironic, given that Putin reversed the policy of neutrality in the form of Finlandization
by invading Ukraine and encouraging both of these Nordic countries to join the
Transatlantic alliance.[xv]
If we look at the current state of the world, the whole Europe is in a
so-called “Anti-Putin” coalition, which is being led by the Prime Minister of
the United Kingdom, Boris Johnson, and Poland. These two countries played a
huge role in terms of helping Ukraine militarily and in humanitarian terms. At
the same time, we have to understand that notwithstanding the fact that Turkey
has refused to impose sanctions on Russia, they have been steadfast in their
support to Ukraine, as they’ve backed Kyiv over Moscow since they abide by all
internationally recognized laws and norms.[xvi]
Azerbaijan, who’s a very close partner of Turkey, has vowed to increase its gas
export to Europe by 30 percent in 2022, even though they already export 2.6
billion cubic meters to Europe in the first quarter of 2022.[xvii]
The post-war environment is looking very grim for Russia in terms of all
aspects, as we’re already seeing the contemporary environment, which is not
beneficial for Russia at all, and once sanctions take effect on Russia’s
economy, that’s when the whole world will feel the devastating consequences of
Russia being completely turned off from the world economy. It is important to
mention that Europe may struggle with diversifying its gas imports, but
according to my research paper, published together with Dr. Taras Kuzio at the
Henry Jackson Society, we concluded that Europe can diversify its energy income
from Central Asia, through the Caspian Sea, then to Georgia or the South
Caucasus, and then to Europe, but that’s a process which has to be coordinated
with Turkey, Azerbaijan, Georgia and most importantly, gas exporting countries
in Central Asia, such as Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, etc.[xviii]
A post-war environment will look as follows – Russia will maintain a strategic
partnership with its fellow dictatorial and autocratic states, such as North
Korea, Belarus, Syria, etc. It may maintain economic relations with India, but
that does not necessarily mean that India will support Russia in its brutal
invasion of Ukraine, since India has an interest in preserving good relations
with the US, the leader of the democratic world, against its struggle versus
China,[xix]
the main geopolitical test of the United States in the 21st century,
as stated by the Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken.[xx]
It is indeed true that
Russia has been looking for ways to somehow evade sanctions, imposed by the
West, by engaging in smuggling and, in general, contraband. Countries that have
served as the points for sanctions evasion are North Korea,[xxi]
Belarus,[xxii]
Iran,[xxiii]
and allegedly, Georgia,[xxiv]
according to the statement made by Ukraine’s Intelligence Agency. What’s more
is that even the illegitimate government of Afghanistan, which is the Taliban,
expressed readiness to purchase Russian oil and gas.[xxv]
The EU is proposing sanctions, and this sanctions package includes: phasing out
European Union’s Russian crude oil in six months-time, disconnecting Russia
from the global financial system – SWIFT, cutting off Russia from EU satellites
and the internet, sanctioning Russian officials, responsible for genocide in
Ukraine.[xxvi]
It is highly likely
that the war will continue till the end of 2022, according to the estimates of the
US government,[xxvii] and
if the war is indeed over by the start of 2023, there are several scenarios
that we’ll have to consider in such an ambiguous pre-war environment.
1)
Inconsistent
control
2)
Insurgency
3)
Russia
becoming weaker or fundamentally collapsing
4)
Isolated
Russia from world politics
5)
Russia
losing its position as an exporting energy superpower
6)
Russia is
comfortable in its dictatorial circle with Belarus, Iran, North Korea, etc.
7)
Russia
returns to its Soviet-era isolation and export of spies.
The nature of the Russo-Ukrainian
war is changing quite rapidly and that is why it’s very difficult to properly
assess the post-war environment. However, it’s still worth mentioning that
according to various reports, published by ISW and Western intelligence
agencies, Ukraine is winning this war and is advancing on the Eastern front, as
it got back the Kharkiv region back to its control. This situation may change
if Putin declares martial law and calls for the full mobilization of its
reserve forces, as there is a scenario in which a Russian offensive may be
successful from the eastern front, so that they may establish a certain level
of control, an inconsistent level of control, up to the Dnipro River. At the
same time, if the general warfare is over, it might end with the above-mentioned
scenario, a scenario in which Russia has tremendous military casualties and
economic decline, but they have established a patchy control over parts of
Ukrainian territory.[xxviii]
Recent statements, made by Western officials and decision-makers, make it
obvious that as long as Putin sits in the Kremlin, there will be no discussion
about returning back to normal with Russia.[xxix]
Russia will be left in
a deadlock, a situation in which they’ll face insurgency in Russian-occupied
Ukrainian territories, and protest domestically, as according to Western
intelligence agencies, Putin has to slowly promote the narrative that they are
indeed losing the war in Ukraine. Russia’s role in the post-war environment
will be quite complex, in terms that they will be completely isolated from the
world stage both in diplomatic and economic terms, and at the same time,
considering these particular circumstances, they may resort to aggressive
policies, such as funding of terrorism, utilizing spy network all around the
globe, engaging in illegal commerce, etc. One could say that it’s a return to a
Soviet Union era, where they were demonized all the time. Of course, it’s still
a bit early to talk about the effectiveness of sanctions, but once they are in
full effect, we will be able to see that in a post-war environment, Russia will
be completely devastated from an economic point of view, considering that they
won’t be able to keep up with international economic trends, where they are
fundamentally isolated. Russia, once regarded as an exporting power when it
came to wheat and natural resources, will no longer be able to utilize its
export capabilities and in the post-war environment, Russia will have to look
for different countries to export its wheat, gas and oil resources to, and
particularly, these countries will be located in the Far East and South-East
Asia. However, revenues gathered from the Eastern hemisphere will be far less
than the revenues that Russia got from exporting its resources to Europe, and
that is why they will become weaker and weaker. It’s important to consider
that. There is also a very high chance of the West trying to infiltrate a
Russia which is completely isolated from the international stage to influence
its domestic politics or maybe even destabilize it using its spy network. There
is, however, a chance that Ukraine may repel all Russian offensives and return
its rightful territories, but still, the overall scenario does not change in
terms of the general decline of Russia as a state. Russian regression is
inevitable in the post-era period.
In conclusion, a
post-war international political environment will be very difficult to assess
in the short-run, but it’s more than obvious that Russia will be isolated and
sanctioned to the point of no return, so that it may not be able to conduct the
same kind of warfare in other countries and finance its war machine. Russia
could resort to more and more violent and aggressive policies abroad and
particularly, in Central Asia, since as I have concluded in my paper, Europe
needs to diversify its energy income from other countries, and that is where
countries like Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and others enter the “commercial”
arena, so to say. To uphold its interests, Russia may conduct these hostile
policies against these countries. That is why the Western world needs to
overcome these threats by being more involved in Eurasian and particularly,
Central Asian/Caucasian affairs. All in all, Russia will not benefit, in any
way whatsoever, from their barbarous war in Ukraine. In the meantime, NATO will
expand in a deliberate manner, and geopolitical projects to ensure Europe’s
security, such as the Three Seas Initiative, will be finalized, from my point
of view, and Russia will be completely excluded from all of that. As John
McCain once said, “Russia is a huge gas station, masquerading as a country”.[xxx]
Russia, in the post-war political environment, will have a role of exporting
terrorism, executing its aggressive policies toward its neighbors and non-neighboring
states, exporting spy networks, and being the cheapest gas station in the
world, that will supply its energy resources to Asia and, possibly, Latin
America, but the latter is under a question, since it already has enough
resources to fund its needs.
Eight Policy Recommendations:
1)
The West
should work hard on being more involved in Central Asia and the South Caucasus
to diversify European energy resources and income.
2)
The West
should keep Russia in its isolated condition and keep them like that until they
implode.
3)
The West,
under the leadership of the United States, should ensure that certain
geopolitical projects, such as the Three Seas Initiative, are finalized.
4)
The United
States and Great Britain should play a huge role in terms of countering the
sanctions evasion by Russia in certain countries, that are currently “under the
radar”.
5)
The US
should help Europe with its energy resources, since the Europeans have decided
to comply with the sanctions imposed on Russia, which includes saying no to
Russian gas and oil. In that case, the US should send these natural resources
to Europe in reservoirs.
6)
The West
should offer China something that Russia cannot offer the latter. One could say
it’s the realpolitik bargain of the 1970s, when the relations between the Soviet
Union and Mao’s China were severed and Richard Nixon saw it as an opportunity to
engage in rapprochement with China. The same can be done today and Russia will
be absolutely isolated, even from Asia, where China is the most dominant
player.
7)
In the
post-war era, the West should increase its support for the Russian opposition
and Russian independent media outlets inside and outside of Russia, to ensure
that democratic processes take place in a quite unstable post-war Russia.
8)
The West
should return to treating a post-war Russia, just like they have treated the
Soviet Union, as an “evil empire”. Intelligence services and capabilities
should be enhanced to their maximum.
[i]
Zack Beauchamp, “Putin’s “Nazi” rhetoric reveals his terrifying war aims in
Ukraine”, Vox, February 24, 2022, https://www.vox.com/2022/2/24/22948944/putin-ukraine-nazi-russia-speech-declare-war
[ii] Jacqui Heinrich, Adam Sabes, “Gen. Milley
says Kyiv could fall within 72 hours if Russia decides to invade Ukraine:
sources”, Fox News, February 5, 2022, https://www.foxnews.com/us/gen-milley-says-kyiv-could-fall-within-72-hours-if-russia-decides-to-invade-ukraine-sources
[iii]
Chris Martin, “A graphical comparison of Russian and Ukrainian military forces”,
Defense News, February 24, 2022, https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2022/02/24/a-graphical-comparison-of-russian-and-ukrainian-military-forces/
[iv]
Paul Sonne, “Hubris and Isolation led Vladimir Putin to misjudge Ukraine”, Washington
Post, April 12, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/04/11/putin-misjudged-ukraine-hubris-isolation/
[v]
Steve Holland, “U.S. relieved as China appears to heed warnings on Russia”, Reuters,
May 3, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/world/us-relieved-china-appears-heed-warnings-russia-2022-05-03/
[vi]
Jack Detsch, Twitter, March 17, 2022, https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1504440051484274691
[vii]
Frederick W. Kagan, “What Stalemate Means in Ukraine and Why It Matters”,
Institute for the Study of War, March 22, 2022, https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/what-stalemate-means-ukraine-and-why-it-matters
[viii]
Financial Times, “A serious failure: scale of Russia’s military blunders
becomes clear”, Financial Times, 2022, https://www.ft.com/content/90421972-2f1e-4871-a4c6-0a9e9257e9b0
[ix]
Paul Kirby, “Donbas: Why Russia is trying to encircle Ukraine's east”, BBC, May
4, 2022, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60938544
[x]
Dan Sabbagh, “Ukraine has won the battle of Kharkiv, analysts say, as Kyiv
warns of ‘long phase of war’”, The Guardian, May 14, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/14/ukraine-has-won-the-battle-of-kharkiv-analysts-say-as-kyiv-warns-of-long-phase-of-war
[xi]
Steven A. Cook, “Where Turkey Stands on the Russia-Ukraine War”, Council on
Foreign Relations, March 3, 2022, https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/where-turkey-stands-russia-ukraine-war
[xii] Péter Krekó, “Viktor Orban is the West’s
Pro-Putin Outlier”, Foreign Policy, March 20, 2022, https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/03/20/viktor-orban-is-the-wests-pro-putin-outlier/
[xiii]
Jen Kirby, “Germany’s dramatic reversal on defense, explained”, Vox, March 5,
2022, https://www.vox.com/22960493/germany-chancellor-reversal-defense-war-russia-ukraine
[xiv]
Alex Morales, “Britain Can End Russian Gas Imports Sooner Than Thought”, Bloomberg,
April 27, 2022, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-27/britain-can-end-russian-gas-imports-sooner-than-thought
[xv]
Joshua Berlinger, “What you need to know about Finland, Sweden and NATO”, CNN, May
14, 2022, https://edition.cnn.com/2022/05/14/europe/sweden-finland-nato-next-steps-intl/index.html
[xvi] Dorian
Jones, Turkey Steps Up Support for Ukraine, Risking Russian Retaliation, Voice
of America, March 3, 2022, https://www.voanews.com/a/turkey-steps-up-support-for-ukraine-risking-russian-retaliation-/6468635.html
[xvii]
IANS, “Azerbaijan to increase natural gas supplies to Europe by 30% in 2022”, IANS,
April 30, 2022, https://www.business-standard.com/article/international/azerbaijan-to-increase-natural-gas-supplies-to-europe-by-30-in-2022-122043000488_1.html#:~:text=Azerbaijan%20exported%202.6%20bcm%20of,the%20first%20quarter%20of%202022&text=Azerbaijan%20plans%20to%20boost%20its,state%20oil%20company%20SOCAR%20said.
[xviii]
Nicholas Chkhaidze, Taras Kuzio, “A Weaker Russia and the West’s Opportunity in
the South Caucasus”, The Henry Jackson Society, April 7, 2022, https://henryjacksonsociety.org/publications/a-weaker-russia-and-the-wests-opportunity-in-the-south-caucasus/
[xix]
Rhea Mogul, “Why India can buy Russian oil, and still be friends with the US”, CNN,
April 23, 2022, https://edition.cnn.com/2022/04/22/india/india-us-china-russia-relations-intl-hnk/index.html
[xx]
Simon Lewis, “Biden administration singles out China as 'biggest geopolitical
test' for U.S”, Reuters, March 3, 2021, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-china-blinken-idUSKBN2AV28C
[xxi]
Christian Davies, “North Korea’s sanctions evasion points way for Russians to
bypass the West”, Financial Times, April 21, 2022, https://www.ft.com/content/10a5fcb0-8777-4d48-aa0b-630f671ed3c1
[xxii]
Reuters, Russia, “Belarus ready to boost union state cooperation amid sanctions”,
Reuters, March 14, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-pm-says-moscow-minsk-keen-boost-union-state-cooperation-amid-sanctions-2022-03-14/
[xxiii]
Reuters, Russia, Iran to take practical steps to circumvent Western sanctions
-RIA cites Lavrov, Reuters, March 30, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-iran-take-practical-steps-circumvent-western-sanctions-ria-cites-lavrov-2022-03-30/
[xxiv]
OC Media, “Ukrainian intelligence accuses Georgia of allowing Russia to dodge
sanctions”, OC Media, April 5, 2022, https://oc-media.org/ukrainian-intelligence-accuses-georgia-of-allowing-russia-to-dodge-sanctions/
[xxv] IANS,
“Afghanistan wants oil, gas from Russia, hopes to send dry fruits to Moscow”,
Business Insider, May 14, 2022, https://www.business-standard.com/article/international/afghanistan-wants-oil-gas-from-russia-hopes-to-send-dry-fruits-to-moscow-122051400452_1.html
[xxvi]
BBC, “What Sanctions are being imposed on Russia over Ukraine invasion?”, BBC, May
4, 2022, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60125659
[xxvii]
Mia Jankowicz, “Blinken told EU leaders he believes Russia's war on Ukraine
could last until the end of 2022, CNN reports”, Business Insider, April 15,
2022, https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-war-ukraine-could-last-all-2022-blinken-says-2022-4
[xxviii]
Holly Ellyatt, “How will Russia’s war with Ukraine end? Here are 5 possible
outcomes”, CNBC, March 8, 2022, https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/08/how-will-russias-war-with-ukraine-end-here-are-5-possible-outcomes.html
[xxix]
Reuters, “UK PM Johnson says no return to normal relations for Russia's Putin”,
Reuters, May 12, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-pm-johnson-says-no-return-normal-relations-russias-putin-2022-05-12/
[xxx]
Jon Terbush, “John McCain: Russia is a 'gas station masquerading as a country'”,
The Week, January 9, 2015, https://theweek.com/speedreads/456437/john-mccain-russia-gas-station-masquerading-country
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