Hubert Szustak
Post-Graduate
Program Student in Geopolitics
and Geostrategy
At the University of
Business and Entrepreneurship (Wyzszej Szkoly Biznesu)in Ostrowiec
Swietokrzyski in Republic of Poland
Specialization: Eurasia in geopolitics and geostrategy
Professor Vakhtang Maisaia
Deputy Director, International Studies Center of IBSU
Honorable
Professor in Security Studies, the University of Business
and Entrepreneurship (Wyzszej Szkoly Biznesu)
in Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski in Republic of Poland
Eurasia is an area where major of
the most important historical events took place. Starting with the birth of
ancient civilizations such as Egyptian, Greek, Roman, Mesopotamian and Chinese
through the great empires built often on the base of those civilizations and
the great wars between them. That was a place of birth for the greatest
religions like Judaism, Christianity and Islam. Eurasia is also a place where
crusades started and where the great colonial empires were born. This is also
the place where the greatest wars in human history took place as a result of
tensions between the countries trying to fulfill their ambitions. Especially
First and Second World Wars were a manifestation of those aspirations. Despite
the fact that most of these events took place in Europe there were also some
things that happened in central and East Asia. These include, inter alia, the
conquests of Dagis Khan, colonization of India but also the first, second and
third opium wars and as a result of that - collapse of the Chinese power. The
last mentioned example was very important because it started the century of
humiliation perceived by Chinese as the worst period in their history when they
had to submit to the European powers.
After the Second World War, the era
of the Soviet Union’s domination in Asia followed. At that time China struggled
with the civil war between Nationalists and Communists. The latter won the war
and the mainland China official became People’s Republic of China. In the
beginning of 50’s China was strongly supported by Soviet Union, but over time
the relationships became worse as these countries perceived the role of
communism differently and they began competing for influence in Asia . Collapse
of the Soviet Union started the division of the country into many smaller ones,
but still strongly dependent on Russia. As a result new countries emerged in
Central Asia - Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.
Economies of the post-soviet countries were ineffective and not competitive so
they had to go through the transformation. Countries laying in Europe had a
better perspectives because of closeness
to the Western Countries and above all possibility to join European Union.
Unfortunately for the states in the Central Asia there weren’t many
opportunities to boost the economic growth. As a result some of the Asian
countries in this area decided to sign several different pacts that were aimed
at, inter alia, reducing the costs of transport and trade. One of these was
Shanghai Five group established on 26 April 1996 by China, Kazakhstan,
Kyrgyzstan, Russia and Tajikistan. This pact was created to reduce tensions at
the borders between the member countries as there were many unsolved
territorial conflicts between them.
By 2001 China
resolved most of the border disputes with Shanghai Five members under Russia’s
surveillance[1]. As the time
passed, it became noticeable that China needed something more. In 2001, during one of the summits
Uzbekistan was joined to the organization and the heads of the member countries
signed the Declaration of Shanghai Cooperation Organization in order to expand
the cooperation range. Over time, the role of observer state also arose. This
role was created for other countries willing to join the SCO. One of the first
observer states were India, Iran and Pakistan that are already a full members
of the union. Currently SCO includes eight member states and these are China,
India, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Pakistan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.
There are also four observer states such as Afghanistan, Belarus, Iran and
Mongolia. There are also countries called „Dialogue Partners” and these include
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Cambodia, Nepal, Sri Lanka and
Turkey. In 2021 SCO decided to start accession process of Iran and also to join
another dialogue partners such as Saudia Arabia, Egypt and Qatar.[2]
The philosophy standing behind SCO is so-called „Shanghai
spirit”. According to which the most important things are harmony, respect for
other cultures, working via consensus, noninterference in others internal
affairs and nonalignment. SCO’s main areas of focus were fighting against
terrorism, separatism and extremism. These three phenomenas are called „three
evils” and it emphasises the usage of violance or intimidation against people
or governments in order to change behaviour, borders or regimes[3]. Over
time, also economic integration became an important part of the union.
Military
Cooperation
Over first ten years of SCO existence security activities
lead the main role. The main reason for that was media coverage (particularly
by China‟s official news outlets, and clips posted on YouTube). Besides that,
powerful participants were involved in the military exercises. Russia and China
are perceived as a countries possessing one of the most powerful arsenals in
the world, and they stand in opposition to NATO. Security exercises started in
2002. Some of these exercises have been named „Anti-terror” and some of them
„Peace Mission”. Usually the latter were larger and involved more countries.
Main target of the exercises was to fight against simulated „three evils” behaviour.
In general, they were focused on killing or capturing hostage takers and
rescuing hostages, storming buildings and surrounding villages, or forcing down
hijacked airliners.[4]
The main benefit of such exercises is the experience that
the member countries gained in working together in different, extreme
situations. This includes also joint planning, command and control, logistics
and maneuvers. Since 2002 these military operations take place regularly in
different countries with different attendants. The last one was organized in
2021 in Russia.
It is worth to mention that the first large-scale
China-Russia war games, called Peace Mission-2005, reportedly included up to
10,000 personnel. Those were performed in both countries for example on the
Yellow Sea coast. These exercises took a specific form because it was also some
kind of force projection and indirect threat against Taiwan as both of these
countries trained such maneuvers as
amphibious landings, long-range bombers flights, and submarine involvement.[5] This
exmaple shows that the SCO is something more than the anti-terrorism pact.
Economic
Cooperation
The second important part of the Shanghai Cooperation
Organization is the economic aspect. In
2001 Central Asia coutnries were in a bad economic situation and all of them
needed some additional boost to develop faster. The SCO gave them such
chance. encompassed over 120 projects,
including energy and transportation cooperation. The union created its own Business
Council in 2006 based in Moscow. Key function of this institution is to
facilitate cooperation in :
l trade,
l credit,
l financial,
l scientific,
l engineering,
l transport,
l telecommunications,
l agricultural
l and other
spheres.
Its role
is also to implement projects in different sectors of the economy in members‟
territory, and to assist in finding funding for and making recommendations
towards improving economic cooperation between SCO countries.[6]
One sign of the SCO‟s effectiveness in the economic field
is that the member countries can easily deepen economic ties between them.
Another sign is its the SCO’s behaviour during crisis. When the global crisis
arose in 2008, the first meeting of SCO finance ministers and heads of central
banks held in Kazakhstan in December. China is a country that supports others
by lending money to member states, but it also earns a lot of money that way.
At that time Chinese officials indicated that the loan would focus on large
transportation and energy projects as well as smaller business projects that would
go through the Business Council and the Interbank Association.[7]
Along with a creation of the Shanghai Five, the first
signs of the Chinese desire to build the belt and road initiative that was
based on the historical trade routes. The main idea standing behind this
inititative is to strengthen economic ties between the selected countries and
to find new markets and ways of transport for chinese business. In the
beginning it was only a plan to start building it someday, but as the time
passed China desired it more and more. One of the results of this desire was
transformation of Shanghai Five into the SCO. Moreover, China officially
announced its plan for introducing Belt and Road initiative in 2013 in
Kazakhstan during the official visit in this country. In order to rebuild these
trade routes and to make them effective it is necessary for the countries
included in the vision to expand the economic cooperation among them. Creation of Eurasian Economic Union was
supposed to be a step in this direction. Standardized tarrifs and lowered
customs allowed a better integration within the EAEU, but this institution had
more political than economic influence[8]. Hence,
China decided to use SCO as a mean to implement its plan. In general, Belt and
Road Initiative strengthens China’s position
vis-à-vis Russia in their competition for supremacy in Asia, but as it
does not have enough power to stop China it tries to compromise. The result of
such behaviour was that in 2015 Russia agreed the SCO to become the main
platform of negotiation on connecting the Belt and Road with the EAEU. It is
worth to mention that China’s trade increased on average by 93 times from 2001
to 2011. Finally, China became a main trade partner for the most of the Central
Asia countries by 2018. The figure below shows the value of trade between China
and other SCO partners from this region.
Figure 1. China’s Trade with the SCO Partners.
Source: Own study based on - Tsz Yan N. Y., „RUSSIA AND CHINA’S QUIET RIVALRY IN
CENTRAL ASIA”, 2020, Foreign Policy Research Institute
In 2014, the SCO finalized the Agreement on Facilitation of
International Road Transport.
It was a great upgrade to the existing Soviet railway
system. It has drastically increased the efficiency of long-haul trucks with an
integrated transport management system. Before that agreement, truck driver
could wait even up to three day at each border that they wanted to cross. When
the agreement came into force in 2017, specially trained working groups started
training people in Central Asia countries to improve the logistics. They
provided training courses on export and import procedures and formed stable
transport communications ties, both of which maximize transit potential and
integrate Central Asian logistics into the global economy. [9] The
result of these improvements is best illustrated by an example: During a test
run in October 2017, a group of long-haul trucks from Kashgar, China, reached
Tashkent, Uzbekistan, via Irkeshtam, Kyrgyzstan, in just two days, down from
the usual 10 days.
From the above description of the
activities of SCO, its role in the context of global domination emerges. Asian
countries created an opportunity for them to develop. Even though they didn’t
have easy access to western markets they managed to create their own, effective
economic system. It is also worth to mention that these states could probably
be in a better situation, but the authoritarian political system and corruption
do not allow them to show their real potential. Besides that joint military
exercises (even if they are officially called anti-terrorist exercises) also
create an increasingly stronger position of members of the agreement.
The SCO as a kind of counterpart of the European Union in
Asia has become a crucial agreement in the context of finishing the Belt and
Road initiative - probably the most important part of the agreement. China as a
pretender to break US hegemony needs different ways to trade with the countries
in Eurasia without being dependent on sea routes that could be easily blocked
by USA and its allies. Improved trading routes will allow China to expand its
sphere of influence. For most of the countries included in the project
(especially those in Central Asia) it is also a great opportunity to develop
even though they will probably become partially dependent on China.
This analysis therefore allows the conclusion that with
further development of the SCO and without any outside intervention China and
associated countries would be on the best way to global domination. However, in
the current situation where two of most important countries in the pact are
getting more and more unstable it is hard to predict what the future will bring
and the whole situation will be resolved in the next few years.
[1] Tsz Yan N. Y., „RUSSIA AND CHINA’S QUIET RIVALRY IN CENTRAL ASIA”,
2020, Foreign Policy Research Institute
[2] United Nations, https://dppa.un.org/en/shanghai-cooperation-organization
[access: 19.05.2022]
[3] Boland J., „Ten Years of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization: A Lost
Decade? A partner for the U.S.?”, 2011, Brookings
[4] Boland J., „Ten Years of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization: A Lost
Decade? A partner for the U.S.?”, 2011, Brookings
[5] Boland J., „Ten Years of the
Shanghai Cooperation Organization: A Lost Decade? A partner for the U.S.?”, 2011,
Brookings
[6] Boland J., „Ten Years of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization: A Lost
Decade? A partner for the U.S.?”, 2011, Brookings
[7] Boland J., „Ten Years of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization: A Lost
Decade? A partner for the U.S.?”, 2011, Brookings
[8] Tsz Yan N. Y., „RUSSIA AND CHINA’S QUIET RIVALRY IN CENTRAL ASIA”,
2020, Foreign Policy Research Institute
[9] Tsz Yan N. Y., „RUSSIA AND CHINA’S QUIET RIVALRY IN CENTRAL ASIA”,
2020, Foreign Policy Research Institute
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