ULTIMATE CHANGE IN RELATIONS BETWEEN RUSSIA AND CHINA

Marek Kądzielski

Geopolitics and Geostrategy, Postgraduate Studies

 

Vakhtang Maisaia

IBSU, Center for International Studies, Deputy Director

 

ULTIMATE CHANGE IN RELATIONS BETWEEN RUSSIA AND CHINA

 

INTRODUCTION

 

Within the period encompassing the last decade of the 20^th century and the first fifteen years of the 21^st century we could observe a profound change in Sino-Russian relations. During this time for the first time in history China gained dominant position in bilateral relations with Russian Federation. This dominant position was achieved in so many different fields that we may expect Chinese advantage over Russia only to strengthen. Beijing managed to force their own rules in mutual relations where the profits for China do not necessarily mean a loss for Russia or where also where the defeated partner does not even sometimes know that he has been defeated in actuality. Relations between Russia and China are absolutely crucial for entire Far East Asia. This is because of the magnitude of these states, their importance and  political influence but also due to their geographic location, economic strength and military potentials. Russian Federation is still the largest country in the world in terms of its area, and it is also the seventh economic power in the world in terms of purchasing power parity. Russia has the largest natural resources on the globe, including crude oil and natural gas being again the sources of energy consumed worldwide. In terms of currency reserves Russia occupies the sixth position in the world, and they have one of the strongest military potential and army. The Federation is the permanent member of the UN Security Council, and the member of G20 and BRICS. The People’s Republic of China in turn has the largest population in the world, or the second one as compared to India but it is at the same time the third country in the world in terms of its area. It is also the second most powerful economy in the world, or the first one in terms of purchasing power parity since 2015. China has probably one of the richest currency reserves, and it is undoubtedly the largest exporter on our globe. Like Russia, China is the permanent member of the UN Security Council, member of G20 and BRICS but also the member of APEC[1]. First of all the state is they key player in the region of Asia and Pacific and one of the most important actors of the world political order. China are in the period of extraordinary economic development that started some thirty years ago and was triggered by reforms initiated by Deng Xiaoping which imitate the Singaporean economic system. Understanding the relations between Russia and China are therefore essential for comprehension of contemporary international relations and processes in the world.

 

The discussed twenty five years brought a breakthrough in mutual relations between Russia and China. In the process of their development China managed to gain comprehensive advantage over Russia for the first time in their contemporary history. Historically they somehow regained their historical position they had in the 17^th century. These relations are governed by the rule of opportunism; as some experts underline, both parties to this relations know that they cannot count on each other, so they both consider the partner as unreliable. On the other hand, the links are based on realistic understanding of international relations, and both states aim at strengthening their influence in international policy thus achieving their geopolitical goals. The interests of the state prevail on both sides that are able to scarify the interests of their citizens. For instance for some time China used to limit migrations of its people to Siberia in order to avoid deterioration of multilateral relations between the countries. However we can observe increasing asymmetry in their relations giving advantage to Beijing. It was only in the 17^th century when China had similar advantage over Russia but then the Russian Empire started dominating over China, and in the 19^th century they acted hand in hand with western powers abusing their position in China. Also the Soviet Union dominated over China, in terms of ideology and politics but also in the military strength. Fall of the USSR lower international position of Russia. This fall coincided with market reforms and economic development of China thus beginning to change relations between two countries. Chinese domination in these relations will have immense impact on Far East but also on Europe and its global position. Russia has less and less tools to influence China and it is slowly becoming a reservoir of raw materials for Chinese economy. Asymmetry in their relations gradually grow. In terms of political theory both countries may be defined as autocratic post-totalitarian regimes. In the case of states of this kind their foreign policy is usually a combination of national interests and interests of their internal groups. Character of international system causes that the states rely on the force that constitutes a guarantee for their safety and survival. Economic and technological potential of the states is the main source of any changes in international relations. Given that the advantage of China over Russia in their relations is growing. Asymmetry in this context is understood as relation between unequal parties where one of them needs more than the other the benefits gained from their relation[2]. Presently the relations between Russia and China may be defined as a pattern of positive asymmetric exchange in which we have economic dependence but not hostility[3]. Besides economic factors also historical tradition, ideas and values play an important role in Sino-Russian relations because they influence decisions and choices of the parties[4]. Political cultures of both states constitute examples of the cultures of subordination that can be found in centralized structures of authoritarian power states. In this type of culture we observe awareness of influence of political system upon the life of the citizens with simultaneous passive subordination to decisions of authorities and no motivation for active participation in political life[5]. Political cultures of Russia and China produce their understanding of international policy and relations that are rooted in different axiology than the ones accepted in the western world. Those countries form a collective type of civilizations in which group always prevails over individual. Both countries admire power and they believe that only force may provide for normal functioning of their system. They also both fear democracy that in their opinion is dangerous for it leads to chaos. Eventually, both countries perceive themselves as unique civilizations and this fact plays an outstanding role in understanding their mutual relations. Contacts between those two formations are not strictly political bit rather a form of contact between different civilizations[6]. Russia believes that it is so unique that it cannot be understood by reason. It has its own independent tradition, different than the western one, tradition that enables its further development[7]. It believes to be special type of civilization with its own culture, history and morals, specific type of community opposed to western individualism, and endowed with an Orthodox spirituality contrary to western materialism. Those believes are combined with Russian messianic mission and imperialism. They all have formed a belief of Russian cultural and moral superiority, and capacity to be a power which belief is deeply rooted in Russian historical tradition. China in turn believes to be the Middle Kingdom, the Center of the World. In their mind every country contacting China automatically becomes a vassal of Chinese state and Emperor. In Chinese tradition an emperor is the chosen one who has the power and capacity to rule the entire world. And Chinese upper class was always convinced of their superiority to barbarians, namely all other nations[8]. The Middle Kingdom considered itself to be the most important political entity in the world: the biggest in terms of area and population, age and experience, superior in terms of culture achievements, prevailing intellectually, morally and spiritually to any other culture. Outside countries, however existing, were by no means fully independent or equal. The Kingdom was the universal political entity playing a role of sovereign in relation to other states. This traditional thinking is continued in contemporary China that underlines its specific and difference in relation to the West, the difference that is deeply rooted in Confucian tradition. International policy of contemporary China is driven by three motives: reconstruction of their status as superpower, overcoming one-hundred year humiliation from western colonialism (bai nian guo chi), and defensive attitude towards international environment that is manifested by their fear for being surrendered by hostiles[9]. Russia in turn attempts to provide for its safety by controlling so-called “close neighborhood”, a number of countries surrounding Russian borders. This process even intensified after 2009 when Vladimir Putin speeded up the process of reintegration of area of former Soviet Union. In order to achieve this goal Russia is using various instruments, bilateral and multilateral, diplomatic and military ones. These buffer states are to cover the Russian core area, and in this context the concept of close neighborhood is sometimes perceived as the Russian version of the Monroe doctrine[10]. Since 1991 China played a dualistic role for Russia. First, it was an alternative for the West in view of deteriorating political and economic relations between Russian Federation from one side and European Union and United States from the other. Second, the Sino-Russian cooperation really strengthened and slowly normalized with success. The parties ended up their border disputes, increased trade exchange, established collaboration in Far East Asia and soothed anxiety connected with anti Chinese tension in Siberia. From Chinese part it was in pursuance with realistic policy of the state that compromised any ideological goals for actual interests: preservation of peace, development and cooperation. Ruled by Xi Jinping, Chinese foreign policy is focused on promotion of economic development, building of independent international relations and protection of integrity of the state. In the framework of this policy, China tries to minimize dangers in their neighborhood. It is in line with their conviction that in order to survive China must develop, and in order to develop they need contacting the external world[11].

 

LAST DECADE OF THE 20^th CENTURY

 

            Since 1991 Sino-Russian relations are based on pragmatic understanding of interests of both parties that did a lot to minimize negative impact of historical past upon their present ties. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the new era in relation between China and Russian Federation commenced. As compared to the Soviet Union, the Federation encompassed some 80% of former Soviet territory and a little bit more than fifty percent of its population but less than half of its GDP as of 1990. Russian federation remained the status of the local, Euro-Asian power but no longer the superpower almost equal to the potential of the United States. At the same time, China entered into the 20^th century as the rising global power. Initially both parties kept some distance in mutual relations because they aimed at different directions in their international policies[12]. In the beginning of the 90s’ the dominant line in Russian’s policy was determined by its common interests with the USA and EU. Russia hoped for strategic partnership with the Western countries that would include  foreign investments and assist in democratic reforms inside the country. In Asia, Russian priorities encompassed first of all Japan, India and South Korea. China in turn was under pressure from the West after the events on Tiananmen in June 1989. At the same time they kept some distance towards Yeltsin and his group that tried reforming Russia, blaming them for the collapse of the USSR. But soon they realized the benefits from maintaining good relations with Russia offering peace on the newly established borders in Central Asia. For China they were also a factor providing for balance in the region and counteracting American and Japanese influence. Should Russia be incorporated politically and economically to the West, thus in turn would strengthen the pressure on China as the very last socialist power on the globe. Also, the fall of the Soviet Union eliminated a danger to Chinese northern borders from the part of this powerful  neighbor[13]. The People’s Republic of China formally recognized Russian Federation on 27^th December 1991, accepting that it is a continuation of the Soviet Union. In the same document, Russia in turn declared that Taiwan constitutes a part of China. President Boris Yeltsin met with Chinese prime minister Li Peng on 31^st January 1992 during the special session of the UN Security Council. Yeltsin declared that Russia will honor all the treaties concluded with China by the USSR, highlighting at the same time that any differences in political and economic systems of both states should not interfere in their mutual collaboration[14]. In February 1992 the parliaments of both countries ratified the treaty regulating eastern part of their border. It was the first time in their history when they legally defined their eastern boundaries. The parties entered into their trade-commercial cooperation offering each other the most favored nation clause and accepting the rules for barter exchange. They also enhanced their military cooperation, and intensified political relations and visits of their official representatives. On 24^th – 26^th November 1992 Qiang Qichen, Chinese minister of foreign affairs paid a visit to Moscow. During the talks held with Yeltsin, the Russian president declared that China occupies the priority position in foreign policy of the Federation. Earlier this year, on 18^th September 1992 Yeltsin signed a decree on relations between Russian Federation and Taiwan. He underlined that Russia accepts the unity of China, thus considering Taiwan to be a part of the People’s Republic. Moreover, he also declared that Russia will maintain no official relations with authorities of Taiwan. It was in line with the expectations from the part of Beijing, thus soothing some tension in mutual relations between Russia and China. In the end of 1992 there were two options in Russian foreign policy that were competing against each other. The so-called “Atlantic policy” opted for westernization of the country. This option was supported first of all by Sergey Stankiewicz and Vladimir Lukin, Russian ambassador in the United States. But a collapse of western model of economy soon brought disappointment among the rest of Russian political elites. In this situation Yeltsin took advantage of his visit to China he paid on 17^th to 19^th December 1992 during which he met with Li Peng and Jiang Zemin. The parties signed Declaration on mutual relations be declared as friendly and based upon five rules of peaceful coexistence. The Declaration specified that both states shall respect their own ways of development, they will not use force in any disputable issues between them, they will not enter into alliances aimed against each other, they will not attempt for any form of hegemony in the Asia-Pacific region. Russia and China also underlined the importance of UN and consultations in international relations, they declared to negotiate any border issues, favor development of trade and investments, cooperation in the field of research and development, counteract crime and protect natural environment. The Russians again admitted that Taiwan is the part of Mainland China. Given that this Declaration may be seen as a form of treaty between the parties[15].

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[14] История отношений России и КНР, РИА Новости, 16.04.2014.

[15] Li Jingjie, From Good Neighbors to Strategic Partners. Washington D.C. 2000.