Energy environment in the Black Sea/Caspian area and role and interests of the Main Geopolitical Players and their attitude toward the Energy and Transport projects in the Region

 

Nika Chitadze. Professor of the International Black Sea University. Program: International Relations

ABSTRACT

The research examines the impact of energy resources on the security of the Black Sea environment based on the existed and future energy projects and the geopolitical priorities of the leading geopolitical actors: the United States, Russia, the EU, Turkey, China and Iran in relation to the Black Sea region.

The Black Sea–Caspian area is considered to have valuable reserves of energy resources. This area draws the attention of the international community because of the conflicts that are interrelated with the occupied territories, as well as because of the critical geopolitical, geostrategic and geo-economic role of the region of the Black Sea.

As this weapon for the superpowers can be more important than the military defense in the future, the growing power of the energy resources is addressed.

Keywords: Energy, Caspian Region, Black Sea Region, USA, EU, Russia, China, Turkey

ნიკა ჩიტაძე. შავი ზღვის საერთაშორისო უნივერსიტეტი. პროგრამა: საერთაშორისო ურთიერთობები

აბსტრაქტი

კვლევაში განხილულია ენერგორესურსების გავლენა შავი ზღვის  რეგიონის  უსაფრთხოებაზე და წამყვანი გეოპოლიტიკური აქტორების, მათ შორის ამერიკის  შეერთებული შტატების, რუსეთის, ევროკავშირის, თურქეთის, ჩინეთისა და ირანის სტრატეგიული ინტერესები რეგიონში და მათი დამოკიდებულება არსებული და მომავალი ენერგოპროექტების მიმართ.

აუცილებელია აღინიშნოს, რომ რეგიონში არსებული ენერგორესურსების კონტროლი  წარმოადგენს სამხედრო რესურსებზე უფრო მნიშვნელოვან ბერკეტს დიდი სახელმწიფოებითვის.

მთავარი სიტყვები: ენერრგეტიკა, კასპიის რეგიონი, შავი ზღვის რეგიონი, აშშ, ევროკავშირი, რუსეთი, ჩინეთი, თურქეთი

 

Introduction

 

With the advent of an industrial age, the energy element has come to world politics. The twentieth century, by all available technological, diplomatic and military means, has contributed to the competition for energy supplies. The desire to regulate energy resources has been the dominant element in world history. New strategic realities have been generated in global relations and, in particular, in the post-Soviet space since the fall of the USSR. At the same time, in the early 1990s of the 20th Century, several political and inter-ethnic conflicts emerged in post-Soviet space, particularly in the Black Sea/Caspian region.

The Black Sea/Caspian Zone rivalry is therefore focused on prospective estimates of the reach of the Caspian oil and gas market. It should be noted that in preserving the energy stability, the Black Sea/Caspian States regard the visible expansion of the Caspian gas export range as a serious and promising factor. The briefing note addresses defense and energy security issues around the Black Sea from a political point of view and assesses the potential of Black Sea cooperation to strengthen security in the region.

It recognizes many triggers for change in the security climate of the Black Sea, including the dramatic change in Russia-Ukraine relations, the current Turkish foreign policy, a more aggressive process in all the previously called 'frozen' disputes, a renewed emphasis on naval equilibrium and maritime security, and the race to monitor the gas supply route to Europe from the South-East. Threats are divided into three types: those related to rivalry between the region's great powers, the possible flashpoints that could spark a global conflict at any moment, and the transnational risks that affect all Black Sea countries.

It became apparent during the last time that energy security is as important to the nation as military security. Moreover, under the circumstances of globalization and interconnections between states, for instance, the use of armed forces is not as successful. The role of energy capital within international relations theories has been strengthened. Because of this, taking these facts into account, neo-realism is the key frame of research which is interrelated with the relation between foreign policy and energy supplies.

 Significance of the Problem - Energy resources determine the priorities of foreign policy and national security of specific countries and influence the policies of the world’s leading geopolitical players (the USA, Russia, the EU, Turkey, China, Iran). The clashing interests of the large number of actors represent a threat to the security.

Research Question - What is the role of the leading geopolitical powers in the Black Sea region?

The Main Foreign Policy Choice and National Priorities of the Leading Geopolitical Players

Geopolitical Aspirations of the Russian Federation in the Caspian/Black Sea Region

Russia's national politics are worried that the development of oil and gas ventures in the Caspian Basin would result in the reduction of Russia's political power in the region and will reduce Russia's exports of energy resources. The increased amount of oil and gas would boost foreign oil and gas costs, which will eventually decrease revenue from the Russian national budget. It can also be undermined that Russia is itself an involved member in Caspian oil ventures.  The oil pipeline linking Baku (Azerbaijan) with the Russian port of Novorossiysk has been operating since 1997. In addition, the pipeline from Kazakhstan to Novorossiysk was also rehabilitated at the beginning of the 21st century. The Russian company 'Lukoil' is a participant of the Multinational Energy Consortium, which is active in Azerbaijan's oil ventures. But, Russia's oil pipelines from Baku to the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, as well as supply and communication routes from Russia to the Caucasus, were challenged within the first Chechnya war, which crashed social and economic systems and led to the instability in the North Caucasus. Russia is fighting for a leading role in the Caspian-Black Sea region with both large and smaller adversaries. Russia's energy monopoly policy often turns into a military invasion phase. One case is Chechnya, the second presented is Georgia. On this stage it can be undermined that the occupied regions become interrelated with the energy resources and energy politics. As it is known the war between Russia and Georgia in August 2008 caused major damage to Georgia's economic and financial institutions, triggered a complete deterioration in military capability, disrupted the influx of capital inflows into the region, and severely tried to erode Georgia's position as a secure and prosperous transit country. However, the energy industry wasn’t damaged and therefore the Kremlin’s main plan wasn’t completed. During military activities, Georgia's energy grid continued to operate uninterruptedly. With a few cases, the energy infrastructure was not disrupted during the Russian bombing campaign and the population was supplied with gas without disruption. Russia has its own national interests in the Caspian Sea region, so it is considering competing with Georgia over being an energy transit country. The Caspian Sea region is of special importance, from a Russian point of view, because of a number of concerns that need to be covered.  The following geo-strategic priorities are among the most significant. It is clear that Russia needs to stay powerful in the region and exert strength within the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and control over it, thus guaranteeing the stability of its southern flank. As a result Russia is seriously worried that the policy has been more diversified with respect to individual CIS member countries. Russia's concern that the US will fulfil the power vacuum left by Russia to affect its ties with the US in the region. The worsening of Russian-US relations on the European scene since the beginning of XXI Century has also had a significant effect on the degree of tension in the Caspian area. Russia seeks to assure that cash flows from Central Asian and Siberian oil fields will remain in the form of Western capital and therefore that cash flows will not be diverted from Russia to the Caspian zone. In this policy, though, Russia is losing because Russia's trust is ruined after Russia's use of hard power by occupying, annexing regions and disrupting Europe by leaving it without energy. Taking into consideration the Ukrainian crisis as an example, it is clear that today Europe looks for the importing the alternative routes for oil and gas import on European market bypassing the territory of Russia. The emerging facts of the Caspian context must be taken into account by Russian diplomacy especially because gas and oil account for 40-45 percent of Russian export earnings (Zhiltsov, 2016).

U.S. Policy toward the Caspian and Black Sea Region

The Caspian Black Sea Zone has been an exceptionally crucial field on the United States' geopolitical map. This part of the world has valuable energy reserves and acts as a strategic route for its transport (Chitadze, 2011). The US is one of the key major players with the competing interests in the area. The United States has a concrete rationale, from a geopolitical point of view, to keep supporting the Caspian countries' sovereignty. The United States also has a strong interest in limiting the extent and power of the sphere of Russian control, despite certain suspicions about the governmental legitimacy and human rights records of the several states in the Black Sea/Caspian region.

As reported by U.S. officials, U.S. priorities in the area include enhancing the independence and stability of the new states; promoting economic and political reform; reducing regional tensions by establishing economic ties amongst regional powers; promoting the U.S. and its allies and regional states' energy security by maintaining the world market's free flow of oil and gas; and the improvement of commercial markets for U.S. and other enterprises. A quantum change in the international balance of power was indicated by the creation of US military bases in the region.

 Nowadays, Washington's agenda tends to be motivated by three general objectives: the need to protect the nation's oil supplies, the strengthening of stability and dispute settlement, and attempts to deter international extremist groups from establishing a foothold in the region, both in the Black and Caspian Sea basins and in the broader neighborhoods. The U.S. policy of diversifying sources of oil, not just for itself, but also for other importers of oil. The goal is to minimize reliance on some single region and to decrease the ability of political upheaval in one country/region to have a major effect on the production of oil and thereby contribute to a global economic crisis.

It should be noted that the US embargo on trade with Iran and investments in it excluded the possibility of a foreseeable future in the energy perspective. Thus, this is the stage when Georgia has become strategically more important for the United States, since it is an alternative energy transit state. American interests in the Caspian region today arise largely from its defense contribution to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization's European members (NATO).

In the State Department, the Caspian is split into three separate bureaus: The Bureau of European and Eurasian Affairs includes countries on the Caspian's western coast, focusing on Russia and Azerbaijan; the Bureau of South and Central Asian Affairs includes the eastern coast, within the Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan; and the Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs covers Iran.

Turkey’s role in the security of the region

Further to the fall of the Soviet Union, Turkey, along with the United States and other western powers, guided the phase of expanding the economic and political independence of the newly independent states of the South Caucasus and Central Asia.

Due to the alternative energy routes and new agreements Turkey held a leading role in the security affairs of Black-Sea Caspian basin.

Existing Caspian energy resources are exported through the Turkish territory, which is the opening gate of the Black Sea region with the outside world. Numerous global projects have been implemented to circumvent the overcrowded Bosphorus.

The geopolitical location of Turkey gives it a distinct advantage. Knowing its role as an alternate route between suppliers and consumers, Turkey strives to be a place where energy transport between suppliers and consumers is the safest. This scenario is an incentive which not only responds to the energy demands of Turkey, but also takes it closer to the attention of energy issues. In the last two decades, one of the most debated issues has been whether Turkey should be an energy bridge, whether it should be used as a hub, or whether there can be another perspective.

However, the security and sovereignty of the Black Sea-Caspian states can only be ensured by a strong Turkish-Western alliance opposed to Russian influence and by genuinely functioning and growing trade and transit between the East and West. So, there are obligatory should be involved as many actors as possible. Ukraine, Georgia and Azerbaijan are increasingly viewed by Turkey as components of an arc that could help to balance Russia's military presence in the Black Sea and the South Caucasus. With this objective, not only with Baku, but also with Tbilisi and Kyiv, Ankara is intensifying the security ties. Moreover, Turkey is largely converging in favour of Georgia's NATO goals due to western strategic concerns.

Turkey's greater desire to position itself as a transport energy center for TANAP and the TAP gas pipeline projects  (Agenda, 2020) is also assisted by the West from the energy security perspective.

The Caspian Sea: China’s Silk Road Strategy

The Caspian region is being enmeshed in a network of competing diplomatic, security, trade and energy interests of countries that range from Asia, to Russia, to Europe, to the Middle East. The Caspian basin has emerged prominently as an alternate resource for the world's rising energy users, considering the increasing uncertainty of the Middle East's energy supply. In recent years, China has also expanded its footprint and been an important player in the region. China has the fastest-growing footprint in the region among the numerous players, propelled by its voracious energy demand but also activated by the context of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).

As China stumbles on the Silk Road Strategy of "look west" growth, Syria's "look east" policy appears to be wreaking havoc on the Caspian Sea with Chinese interests. The interplay of China's increasing footprint in the Caspian region via the new Silk Road, strengthened by the emerging "Four Seas Strategy", would have major repercussions for the United States, the European Union and other allies.

 In recent years, with two key infrastructure projects: the Kazakhstan-China oil pipeline and the Turkmenistan-China gas pipeline, China has invested in Central Asia and the Caspian region, especially Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan (also known as Central Asia-China gas pipeline). In Turkmenistan, the biggest gas producer in Central Asia, Beijing's main economic interest is obtaining access to natural gas. Funds worth $3 billion have been issued to explore the South Yolotan gas deposits, which are projected to be the fourth largest reserves of gas in the world (Weitz, 2020).

In the Caspian region, which is related to the interests in Central Asia, China tends to have three large objectives: ensuring stability for the region and anchoring the dormant Xinjiang province; gaining natural resources; and consolidating political power to become a regional hegemon through the political system of the SCO. This is part of the overall Silk Road policy of China to diversify energy dependency from the turbulent area of the Gulf and to construct overland routes to hedge against Gulf fluctuations in maritime supply.

China's ambitions in the Caspian Sea anchor its broader Silk Road Policy against the Middle East, Europe, and Africa that set up the Union of the Mediterranean. China spends not just in developing economies, but also creates markets through dollar diplomacy and opens up the possibility of growing Chinese leverage in fiscal-fragile developed countries that could theoretically be connected not only to Chinese loans, but also to infrastructure, technologies or financial asset sales agreements. Similarly to Russia China is taking action to use the SCO to create a new regional security framework that enhances regional stability while reducing other influences.

With Russia gradually growing its Mediterranean foothold in the Black Sea Navy, China is rising its presence in the Caspian region via the SCO and Silk Road of pipelines, railways and highways. Again, across the Caspian region and the Greater Middle East, there seems to be a new "great game." It can be concluded that states of the Black Sea-Caspian region express an interest in partnerships with China as well, due to Chinese trade, investment, loans, and technology, China being world power with substantial influence in many regions of the world, its permanent membership on the UN Security Council grants Beijing influence over many issues of interest to Black Sea states. China is a feasible Russian balancer and a tool of leverage.

EU Attitude toward Black Sea/Caspian Region

In the Black Sea/Caspian Zone, the EU is recognized as one of the major geopolitical players. It is clear that the EU has three major interests in the field. The EU imports oil from the Persian Gulf, Russia and Latin America, which are areas that are economically unpredictable (Chitadze, 2017). The EU is also looking for potential sources for its imports of oil and gas. In the area of oil exploration and shipping, the EU authorities represent own economic interests.

It is expected that the growth of European companies in the region will lead to economic progress in the Caucasus and Central Asian countries and that the region will be more incorporated into the world economic system. The extension of the economic operations of European companies in the Caucasus, large acquisitions, and the development of new European technology would increase the political power of the EU in the Black and Caspian Territories.

These ventures will reduce external challenges, foster the Black Sea and the Caspian States' freedom and territorial integrity. It would also encourage the growth of the market economy's political institutions and values in the Caucasus and Central Asia. The distribution of Caspian energy resources would, in the view of Western scientists, be among the key contributors to economic growth and political stability in oil-rich Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and, as a transit state, Georgia.

Conclusion and Recommendations

Because of the advantageous geographical position and the immense capacity of the reserves of oil (approximately 32 trillion barrels) and gas (approximately 40-50 trillion cubic meters) (Bahgat, 2007), the Black Sea/Caspian Zone is one of the world's most strategic regions and plays an extremely important role in current global security issues. The fundamental shifts in the geopolitical map of the region occurred, as is widely acknowledged, at the end of the 80s and the start of the 90s of the 20th century, interconnected with political changes in Eastern Europe and the post-Soviet area, such as democratic transformations in most of the countries of central and eastern Europe, the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the pursuing of complete sovereignty by former Soviet republics.

In the course of this paper, it was found that energy resources in the 21st century have begun to play a more important role in international relations and, therefore, are attracting the policies of leading geopolitical powers. In modern history, the role of gas and oil transit affects the security of both the Black Caspian Sea Zone and Europe and other international actors involved in the region's politics. In the fight for the Caspian energy resources, finally in 2018, the Caspian Convention played a positive role, due to which the resources are now fairly distributed among the five countries. According to this, the Russian monopoly of resources automatically decreases, as a new energy market appears on the international arena with stable supplies from the NIS, doubly cheap prices and a guarantor of quality and strategic partnership.

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