Is New Cold War Started? Possible Military Confrontation between USA and Russia on the examples of comparing the military potentials of two powers and withdrawal from Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty by both countries

Nika Chitadze. Professor of the International Black Sea University.

                          Director of the Center for International Studies

                          President of the George C. Marshall Alumni Union, Georgia – International and Security Research Center

Abstract

The paper explores the analysis of the main reasons of the restarting the confrontation between USA and Russia, review the military potential of two powers on the example of the structure of land forces, air forces, military fleet, nuclear potential etc.

Second part of the research is dedicated to the observation the possible consequences of the abolishing Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, which was signed in 1987 between USA and USSR, particularly, what type of threats can be emerged for the International Community on the examples of the considering the missile potential of two countries and security environment in the Baltic and Black Sea Regions as a potential frontier lines between USA and Russia Federation.   

Keywords:

USA, Russia, Armed Forces, Missile Systems, Cold War.    

INTRODUCTION

At the first stage of the finalization of the Cold War, a relatively warm relationship formed between Russia and the US. The two countries signed a number of agreements in the fields of politics, economics, military, security, culture and others, hence creating a legislative base for developing bilateral relations. However, already at the beginning of the 21st century, especially given the fact that the US was involved in wars in Afghanistan and Iraq while Russia started to re-assert its positions on the international arena through the growth of revenue from oil dollars, there appeared to be more differences between the two countries than there were common interests.

In today's conditions, when the new realities of the Cold War are booming at great speed, political confrontations are already being demonstrated in military force. Where are the military's potential to be stronger, who has a more capable army, whether the US or Russia? There are different opinions on this issue. It is very interesting to think about the part of the Georgian society that according to the research conducted by the National Democratic Institute, Russia has a stronger army than the United States (Kviris Palitra, 2017).

Purpose and tasks of the research. The purpose of the research  is interrelated to the analysis of the military potential of USA and Russia Federation and determination the possible consequences of the stopping the functioning of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, which was signed 1987 between USA and USSR and played one of the decisive role in the ending of the “Cold War” (US Department of State, 2019). 

Hypothesis. Despite the new stage of arms race between USA and Russia, in the contemporary period it is noted the significant advantage of US military potential before the Russian. Thus, modern realities differ from the realities of the “Cold War”, when during the armed race between USA and Soviet Empire, it was comparatively less differences in the military balance of two super powers.

Methodological base of the research. Important role in the construction of the research methodology played the theory of International Relations itself: approaches, having been worked out in the framework of the school of realism and neo-realism, where the role of force in the international relations is clearly presented. In this theoretical frame, the private methods of the research have been already used: on the first stage the method of the analysis of the scientific publication on this thematic, collection of the statistical data related to the military potential of two countries etc. Later, the problematic-logical method of the data analysis was used with the purpose of the presenting the analysis of the possible consequences of the stopping the action of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty.  

The findings of the research are connected with the complex review of the military structure of the different types of armed forces of USA and Russian Federation and detailed analysis of the importance the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, which was signed in 1987 and possible reflection on the world politics the stopping the action of this bilateral agreement. Particularly:

1.      There are deeply analyzed the military structures – land forces, air forces, nuclear forces, space forces and military fleet of USA and Russia; 

2.      There are reviewed the various scenarios of the situation development in the Baltic and Black Sea Regions, Central Europe based on the existed tensions between USA and Russia. 

3.      It is presented the comparative analysis of the different military capabilities of USA and Russia.

Military Potentials of USA and Russia

While discussing the US-Russian Armed Forces, it is of course necessary to provide relevant information, namely:

The US military structure

The US armed forces are composed with the following troops: Land Forces, Military Air Force, Navy Forces, Maritime Corps and Coast Guard and National Guard. In the the armed forces serve 1 million 382 thousand serviceman, in reserve - 840 thousand, and mobilization reserve is calculated for 14 million people (Kviris Palitra, 2018). The military budget of 2018 amounted to 716 billion dollars, which is more than 3% of the country's gross domestic product. It is noteworthy that in 2017 the Pentagon financing was $ 610 billion (1tv, 2018).

Military structure of the Russian Federation

In the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are united three types of troops - Land Forces, Air-Space Force, Maritime Forces and two additional directions – strategic rocket forces and the Paratroopers. Altogether 1 million 903 thousand servicemen serve in the Russian Federation's military forces, among of them the number of military servicemen is 1 million, and the number of potential reserves is 2.5 million Russian citizens. In 2018, the amount of defense expenditures is about 70 Billion USD, which is less than 3% of the country`s GDP (Kviris Palitra, 2018).  

At the same time, it is noteworthy that due to economic sanctions imposed by the West, in 2017 Russia was forced to reduce defensive costs. It should be pointed out, that within the last 19 years, the volume of spending on defense has grown annually, within 2017-2018 years, Kremlin had the problems with the increasing the military budget of the country.

About those problems for Russia is mentioned in the research of the Stockholm International Peace Studies Institute (SIPRI), where is mentioned, that in 2017, Russia has allocated $ 66.3 billion in defense spending, which is less for 20% in comparison of 2016 (Kviris Palitra, 2018).

Land forces

The US Army (the same land forces) calculates 990 thousand people, out of which 460 thousand serves in the regular units, 335,000 in the National Guard and 195 thousand in the Army Reserve.

In the armament of the land forces are 2 384 tanks "Abrams", 4 559 Infantry Combat Vehicle "Bradley", 2 852 Armored Transmitter "Strainer", 17,000 different types of armored vehicles, 1 242 injections and 969 self-propelled howitzers, 1 205 missile fire reactors, 2 507 mortars, more than 27 thousand anti-tank guided missile complexes, 1 207 self-propelled anti-aircraft missile equipment, 2 700 locomotives and trucks branches of the helicopter.

The number of personnel of the Russian Land Forces comprises 270,000 persons, who are serving in the eight divisions, 147 brigades, four military bases and two training centers.

More than 3,000 T-72, T-80 and T-90 tanks, 4 thousand infantry fighting vehicles, 9,000 armored vehicles, up to 160 missile equipment for operational tactical missiles (including 108 units of "Iskander" ), More than 900 shaft fire reacting systems, up to 2500 injections and self-propelled artillery equipment, more than 2,000 mortars, up to 21 thousand tanks Deo-guided missile complex, more than 1 400 self-propelled anti-aircraft missile equipment (Kviris Palitra, 2018).

Marine space

The US Navy Force consists six fleets. There are employed 320 thousand people, up to 100 thousand in the reserve.

In the armament are 11 nuclear aircraft, 11 landing ships, 22 landing docks, 22 rocket cruisers, 66 missile ships, 12 coastal ships of the coastal zone, 69 atomic submarines, 500 helicopters, more than 2,000 aircraft, including 929 ammunition. A total of 229 combat sailing means.

The Russian naval fleet in general consists five fleet. In total, in the fleet serves 150 thousand sailors.

One aircrafts, four rocket cruiser, nine crews, ten frigates, ten corvettes, 17 landmines, 33 rocket boats, 24 nuclear and 17 diesel engines submarine. Total 205 fighting sailing (Kviris Palitra, 2018).

Airspace

The US military air forces unites strategic missile, military-space, anti-aircraft and missile defense forces. The number of personal staff is more than 318 thousand, and nearly 200 thousand are registered in the reserve.

There are 450 strategic ballistic missiles, 32 spacecraft intelligence compartments, more than 5 thousand combat and transport aircraft, helicopter and unmanned aircraft.

The Russian airspace and air forces are composed with air forces and air-space defense forces. There are 430,000 people serving at this direction of the armed forces.

There are 3,600 combat and transport airplanes and helicopters (including 364 destroyer, 245 fighter and bombers, 469 helicopters are modernized or new)  (Kviris Palitra, 2018).

Nuclear parity

At the 681 strategic carriers of US (ballistic missiles – located at the atomic submarines and underground mines and cruise missiles of the strategic bombers) 1 367 nuclear warheads are installed. Another 848 nuclear triads are in reserve.

On the 527 strategic carriers of Russia are installed 1 444 nuclear warheads, while 779 carriers are in reserve (Kviris Palitra, 2018).

US-Russia Military Confrontation on the example of the abolishing the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty 

The Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF Treaty, formally Treaty Between the United States of America and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics on the Elimination of Their Intermediate-Range and Shorter-Range Missiles is an arms control treaty between the United States and the  Soviet Union (and its successor state, the Russian Federation). U.S. President Ronald Reagan and Soviet General Secretary Mikhail Gorbachev signed the treaty on 8 December 1987. The United States Senate approved the treaty on 27 May 1988, and Reagan and Gorbachev changed the ratified documents on 1 June 1988.

The INF Treaty eliminated all of the two nations' land-based ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and missile launchers with ranges of 500–1,000 kilometers (310–620 mi) (short medium-range) and 1,000–5,500 km (620–3,420 mi) (intermediate-range). The treaty did not apply to air- or sea-launched missiles (Garthoff, 1994). 

During the “Cold War” in the 1970s and 1980s, it was going on a dangerous race in Europe between the USSR and the US for the nuclear weapon production. The Soviet Union began to deploy SS-20s and SS-18s medium and small range intercontinental ballistic missiles in Hungary, Czechoslovakia and the German Democratic Republic, which threatened the Western European countries of NATO. The Alliance responded by deploying ballistic missiles and ground-based cruise missiles of medium-range "Pershing 2" in Britain, Italy and Germany (Kramer, 2019).

Around 250 small and mid-range missile complexes were installed in Europe by both sides and in case of the staring the nuclear war, the whole European continent could be destroyed. By the way, small range ballistic missiles were located by both sides accordingly on the territories of Turkey and Georgia (Resonance, 2018).

"According to the agreement, the Soviet side removed from the operative duty and destroyed the following type of missiles, including mobile: P-10 (SS-20), P-12 (SS-4 for NATO classification), P-14 (SS-5) , cruise missiles PK-55, short-range missiles - OTP-22 (SS-12), OTP-23 (SS-23). On the other hand, the American side has destroyed the average interstellar rockets "Persing 2", ground-based winged missiles "VGM" (Tomahawk) and a small range land bases "Pershing-1a" (they were deployed in Western Europe, mainly in Italy, Great Britain and Germany) and "Pursing-2b" missiles (Resonance, 2019).

Within the 36 months period after signing the treaty, both sides have destroyed 898 already deployed and 700 non deployed medium interstellar missiles, and a small range entities of ​​1096 missiles. 56% of these missiles were coming on the share of the Soviet Union. Thus, withdrawal from the treaty by both sides can transfer the Europe in more dangerous region.

By May 1991, the nations had eliminated 2,692 missiles, followed by 10 years of on-site verification inspections (SIPRI, 2007).

President Donald Trump announced on 20 October 2018 that US was withdrawing from the treaty, accusing Russia of non-compliance the conditions of the agreement. The U.S. formally suspended the treaty on 1 February 2019, and Russia did so the on following day in response to the U.S. withdrawal.

Is the new cold war started ?

It should be pointed out, that withdrawal from the treaty by both sides can transfer the Europe in more dangerous region.  The US and Russia can start to modernize the medium and small intercontinental ballistic missiles. Russians have already begun to modernize land-based ballistic missiles.

Most likely, Russians will use medium and small-scale missile complexes in the Kaliningrad region, from where they can cover almost all of Europe and the South Caucasus.

The confrontation related to the nuclear policy between Washington and Moscow exists for many years. Official Washington for several times has declared, that it had been no reason of the continuation the action of this treaty, because Russian Federation – as The successor of the Soviet Union was systematically violating the treaty and USA possessed an appropriate materials on this issue.

White House was requiring, that Moscow had to fulfill the conditions of the various articles of the treaty, and also to permit the presence on the Russian military bases the representatives of the International commission, which would determine the existence (or absence) of those missiles, possessing of which is prohibited by the principles of the treaty. Particularly, those accusations were presented before the Kremlin in 2014, when according to the information of the American side, Russia, within 2008-2011 years, by the violation the conditions of the treaty, examined new cruise missile, the range of which is more than 500 kilometers. In December of 2017, USA threatened about withdrawal from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty in case, if Russia would not respect the main principles of the treaty within the 60 days (The Guardian, 2018).

One of the main requirements from Washington's side to Moscow was to respect by Kremlin the rules of the treaty related to nuclear missiles and to destroy the nuclear missile 9M729 "innovator", the whole division of which Russia deployed across the entire territory to its western border (The Guardian, 2018).

Besides, of the violation the treaty, USA adopted the sanctions against Russia. According to the information of the US President`s Administration, sanction would concern those enterprises and companies, which work over the production the new missiles technologies. At the same time, Pentagon took the obligation to work over the new type of cruise missile.

Later, NATO also appealed to Moscow for the fulfillment of the duties in the framework of the treaty, but Kremlin replied with the counteraccusations.

The Press-speaker of Kremlin Dmitry Peskov declared, that the consequences of the withdrawal of USA from the  “Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty” “could transfer the world to more danger situation and would force the Russia to take the adequate steps for the restoration the balance of power (Resonance, 2019).

It should be pointed out, that as a result of the abolishment the treaty, the new stage of arm race can be started and the most “hottest” regions in this case could be Eastern and Central Europe and Black Sea Region.   

In the confrontation from one side can be considered NATO member states – first of all USA and from the other side – Russia and Iran and possibly China.

With regard to Iran, it is armed with the ballistic missiles with 2000 km range.  Due to it, NATO and USA will be forced to take the adequative measures for the balancing the situation, which will cause the deployment of the analogical ballistic missiles in Europe (Resonance, 2019).

As it was mentioned, one of the main place of confrontation can become Black Sea Region. If USA decides to deploy in Romania the antimissile systems IJIS and Patriots, there are possibilities of the deployment by Russian side the antimissile elements in the occupied territories of Georgia (first of all in Abkhazia) and Ukraine (Crimea).  Furthermore, Russia has the special program for the working over the producing the rocket "Land Rifle" and also the ground-based hyperbaric missiles series.

In general, US intelligence service fixed, that Russians started the examination of the new cruise missile and its admission to the armed forces, the range of action of those systems is more than 500 kilometers and can reach even 2000 kilometers. Russian presents the counter arguments, according to which USA deployed in Romania and Poland antimissile systems and those systems can be used as an anti-missile-rocket missile, as well as a "Tomahawk" type cruise rocket from the land (Resonance, 2019).

Furthermore, if Russia deploys  the missile systems “Iskander” in Kaliningrad region (Russian enclave which is bordering with Lithuania and Poland) they can cover the whole Europe. If USA from itself deploy the same systems in Poland and Baltic Sea Region, it can reach Moscow and other many strategic objects on the territory of Russia.

An American fleet in a black and Baltic can destroy the whole Russian navy

For the preventing the possible geopolitical expansion from the Russian side in the Baltic and Black Sea  Region, USA has taken some preventive steps for the resistance of the Imperialistic policy of Kremlin. Particularly, In the Baltic Sea, entered two US ships “Gravel” and “Porter”, and “Donald Cook” in the Black Sea Region.

On all those three ships can be located about 200 cruise missile “Tomahawk”, which causes the agitation from the Russia side. With regard to the ship “Donald Cook”, it is equipped with the tactical rockets and artillery systems and implemented several military exercises with the coast guard service of Georgia and other Black Sea countries (Resonance, 2019).

According to the Russian media, “Gravel” is able to transport about 64 cruise missile “Tomahawk” and “Porter” and Thomas Cook” 61 similar type of rockets. Thus, near the Russian territory, there are military ships with almost 200 “tomahawks” on the board. Russian media considers, what Russian military fleet can oppose to the American bombers escort? 

According to some reliable sources, Russia at this stage posses 11 comparatively small ships, which are equipped by the rocket systems “Calibre” and this system is analogy of American “Tomahawk”. Also, submarines working on diesel - from 3 to 5 nuclear submarines. Their common potential is 96 missiles, so, less for the three times, than that of those American ships, which are located near the territory of Russia.

According to the Russian experts, Russian ships “Boyko” and “Smart” are able to sink the American mine ships. They are armed with anti-aircraft missile system "Uranium" and anti-aircraft missile system, "Redu", with torpedoes and a powerful arsenal of radar and radioelectric equipment, large-scale guns and grenade launchers. However, on the other hand, Russian expert says that Russia has only a number of military ships and corps, and US marine forces have a 67-octane ship and another one is being built (Resonance, 2019).

Russian media worries that Russian navy can only own small rocket ships and boats, and in such a situation can only dream on the dominance in the sea.

US-Russia confrontation in Space  

The US has developed a new plan to resist Russia. In January 2019, in Pentagon, President Donald Trump, presented the report on missile defense. Particularly, the US will be focused on developing its own missile systems and defense capabilities not just on the land, but in space as well for the preventing any possible attack from Russia and from any other countries (Stars and Stripes, 2019).

The report focuses on future threats - hyperbaric and cruise missiles, as well as space weapons, which are being produced by Russian Federation and China.

To prevent from them, the American anti-missile defense complex will be equipped with the special radars. In this case should be mentioned about radiolocation station of ballistic targets, whose function is limited by the determination of the ballistic targets and their identification.

During the presentation of the report, Trump has made another interesting announcement,  according to him, the members of North Atlantic Treaty Organization should act more independently during the defend themselves against foreign threats and purchase the weapons by their own expenses from such states, as USA and others.

In the face of external threats, Trump has emphasized the danger posed by China and Russia. In addition to Russia and China in the document, there is a danger that the US threatens from Iran and North Korea.

Trump proposed the Pentagon to use the SM-3 Block IIA type anti-aircraft missiles for the capturing the ballistic missiles with small and continental interaction range (Raytheon Company, 2011).

In addition, Trump initiated the addition proposal, according to which in Alaska, an additional 20 missile complexes on Fort - Grill base will be allocated, and their function will be to catch ballistic missiles. Currently, US has 44 such active missile complexes and they are deployed not only in Alaska, but also in California, on the Vandenberg base (The Verge, 2011).

However, US plans are not limited to above-mentioned programs, additionally it is planned to allocate the US anti-aircraft defense complexes in space.

It is being discussed about low-sized satellites, which will be equipped with sensors and their function will be to launch a ballistic missile or a hyper-airborne weapon from the pre-selected region of the planet. Also, the intension is to produce an unmanned aircraft, which will be equipped with laser and its function will be to destroy the observed missiles.

Conclusion

One of the main guarantees of the US victory in its geopolitical struggle with Russia is the strengthening of trans-Atlantic ties between the democratic powers of the world, especially the US and Europe. Hence, taking various factors into account, it is necessary to formulate the following recommendations:

Geopolitical Factors: In order to oppose anti-democratic trends, the US and its allies need to formulate a joint strategy, more specifically: - Encouraging integration processes between the countries of the global north such as forming a common economic area of North America and Europe. Reaching an agreement in terms of the TTIP – Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership would give both sides about USD 100 billion worth of additional revenues (European Commission, 2017).

- Reaching a general consensus among Western countries about relations with anti-Western unions (Shanghai Cooperation Organization, BRICS and so on). More Involvement of NATO and the EU in Global Processes;

 - The need for NATO to increase defense spending: as is known, NATO member states have an obligation that given the threats and challenges of the modern world, the defense budget of each member country must not be lower than 2% of its GDP. Only several members of the alliance meet this standard as of today. According to the plan, about 15 out of the 29 NATO members will meet the standard by 2024. Hence, it is important for negotiations between the US and the European allies about increased defense spending in the alliance to continue (The Economist, 2018);

 - As for NATO-EU relations, the role of the EU in the issues of defense and security has significantly strengthened since the 2003 Berlin Plus and EU Lisbon Treaty. The Berlin Plus agreement enables the EU to use NATO’s military potential, including military aviation in crisis situations (NATO, 2006);

In general, strengthening the transatlantic links and continuation the economic pressure on Russia can play the decisive role in the decreasing the imperialistic intensions of Kremlin and providing the international peace and further enlargement of democracy on the global level. 

References:

European Commission (2018). Transatlantic Trade and Investment partnership. Reprieved from: http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/in-focus/ttip/

Garthoff, Raymond L. (1994). The Great Transition: American-Soviet Relations and the End of the Cold War. p. 326. ISBN 978-0-8157-3060-6

Grush, L. (2019). The Military is looking at ways to intercept nukes from space – but experts say it`s not feasible. Star wars all over again. The Verge. Retrieved from: https://www.theverge.com/2019/1/20/18188332/space-based-interceptors-icbms-missile-defense-review

Kramer, Andrew E.; Specia, Megan (1 February 2019). "What Is the I.N.F. Treaty and Why Does It Matter?" – a NY Times.

NATO Handbook (2006), Berlin Plus agreement. NATO Public Diplomacy Division. Brussels, Belgium. P. 243-250

Raytheon (2011). Raytheon Completes SM-3 Test Flight Against Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile, Raytheon Company, Retrieved 6 September 2011 Retrieved from: http://raytheon.mediaroom.com/index.php?s=43&item=1800

Stars and Stripes (2019). Trump delivers speech at Pentagon touting new weapons to protect US from missile attacks. Retrieved from: https://www.stripes.com/news/trump-delivers-speech-at-pentagon-touting-new-weapons-to-protect-us-from-missile-attacks-1.564886

Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (2007). SIPRI Yearbook 2007: Armaments, Disarmament, and International Security. New York: Oxford University Press. p. 683.

The Economist (2019). NATO members’ promise of spending 2% of their GDP on defence is proving hard to keep. Retrieved from:  https://www.economist.com/special-report/2019/03/14/nato-members-promise-of-spending-2-of-their-gdp-on-defence-is-proving-hard-to-keep

 

 

The Guardian (2018).  US says it will pull out of INF treaty if Russia does not comply within 60 days. Retrieved from: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/04/us-inf-russia-nuclear-treaty-deadline

U.S. Department of State (2018). Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF Treaty)". Retrieved from: https://www.state.gov/t/avc/trty/102360.htm

ალადაშვილი, ი. ვინ უფრო ძლიერია - აშშ თუ რუსეთი?!  ჟურნალი კვირის პალიტრა (Aladashvili, I. Who is stronger – USA or Russia?  Journal Kviris Palitra).  Retrieved from: https://www.kvirispalitra.ge/samkhedro-thema/42004-vin-ufro-dzlieria.html?lang=ka-GE&add_new=1&all=0

ბასილაია, ე. 2019. შავი და ბალტიის ზღვებზე ამერიკულ ესკადრას ერთი ზალპით შეუძლია მთელი რუსული ფლოტის განეიტრალება (Basilaia, E. 2019. American Squadron can destroy Russian Fleet in the Baltic and Black Sea Region by one shot. Resonance.). Retrieved from: http://www.resonancedaily.com/index.php?id_rub=8&id_artc=64134

ბასილაია, ე. 2019. 10 დღე "ცივი ომის" და "გამალებული შეიარაღების" ოფიციალურად დაწყებამდე. აშშ 2 თებერვალს აშშ-სსრკ-ის 1987 წლის შეთანხმებას დატოვებს. რეზონანსი (10 days before the official launch of "Cold War" and "Armed Race". On February 2 USA will leave the US-Soviet agreement of 1987). Retrieved from: http://www.resonancedaily.com/mobile/index.php?id_rub=8&id_artc=63953

პირველი არხი (2017). რომელმა ქვეყანამ დახარჯა შეიარაღებაზე 2017 წელს ყველაზე მეტი (First Channel, 2017. Which country spent on armament most of all in 2017). Retrieved from:  https://1tv.ge/news/romelma-qveyanam-dakharja-sheaiaraghebaze-2017-wels-yvelaze-meti/