Results of the first tour of the Presidential Election in Georgia can be the important step toward Democratic development of the country

By: Nika Chitadze

Professor of the International Black Sea University

Director of the International Studies Center

President of the George C. Marshall Alumni Union, Georgia. International and Security Research Center

Introduction

As it is known, Presidential elections were held in Georgia on 28 October 2018 - the seventh presidential elections since the country's restoration of national independence from USSR in 1991. The previous elections in 2013 resulted in a victory for George Margvelashvili (who gained more than 60% of votes), a candidate of the ruling - “Georgian Dream” coalition.

Based on the amendments to the constitution of Georgia in 2017, the 2018 elections will be the last direct presidential vote;  Since 2024, presidents will be elected by the 300-member College of electors, which includes members of parliament, particularly 150 people who will be elected by proportional way and the same amount of the representatives from local self-governance bodies and representatives of Autonomous republics.

Taking into account other changes, the President will be elected for a term of six years in 2018.

With regard to the result of the first tour, at the second tour of elections will participate Salome Zurabishvili – supported by ruling party “Georgian Dream” and  Grigol Vashadze – representative of the “United Opposition”. 

46 people applied to participate in the elections as a President`s candidate, 21 of which were rejected by the Election Administration of Georgia. 25 presidential candidates were registered by the Election Administration of Georgia. This is the largest number since Georgia's first presidential election in 1991. All 25 candidates were included on the ballot paper.

Strengths and weaknesses of the presidential elections on October 28, 2018

It is necessary to point out, that the first round of elections had its weaknesses and strengths.  

Among the weaknesses should be mentioned the following:

-          Despite the fact, that according to the observers, the elections were "competitive and professionally administered," they saw a "substantial imbalance in donations", "excessively high spending limits", and a "lack of analytical reporting" as contributing factors to an unlevel playing field. For example, Ms. Salome Zurabishvili – candidate, who was supported by incumbent political party “Georgian Dream” got for more than 4 times higher “contribution” from physical and legal persons than her main rival at the election Mr. Grigol Vashadze;

-          The attendance at the election was law. Particularly, less than 50%, more concretely 46 % of voters took part at the election.

In this regard should be pointed out that law attendance of voters was determined by the following factors:

-          Important part of population has the indifferent attitude to the political processes in the country with the point of view, that no one from political leaders (first of all president) thinks about the interest of the people and no one is able to resolve his/her own problem – thus, unfortunately part of the population (let` s hope minority) do not understand that the gaining high income and the high demand on the labour market of concrete personality is depended on the level of professionalism in concrete field (physical or intellectual work);

-          Other part is interested in to the political process and most probably respect such leading democratic and political institute as elections but does not support any political party, because this part of society has law trust whether toward incumbent (ruling party) or to opposition;     

-          Many people could not go to the places of their registration, for example, people, who work in Tbilisi but are registered in the different regions of Georgia had problems (time, costs for travel etc.) with travel;

-          According to the reports of the local and international observers, there were cases of influence on the voting rights of citizens by the different means first of all from the side of the incumbent party and governmental institutions. For example, part of the public servants on the central and municipal level had the order to attract the maximal number of supporters, including members of the family etc;

-          That fact, that the officially independent but de-facto candidate of ruling party Salome Zurabishvili could not gain the victory at the first tour (in comparison with the year 2013, when the candidate from “Georgian Dream” – current president George Margvelashvili gained the victory at the first tour with the 62% of votes) clearly shows the decreasing the legitimacy of ruling party – which is responsible for the socio-economic and democratic development of the country. Particularly, according to the public surveys, having been implemented several month before the elections by National-Democratic Institute (NDI) and International Republican Institute (IRI), more than 70% of the population of Georgia considers that country “goes to the wrong direction”. Furthermore, declaration by Salome Zurabishvili about starting by Georgia first the military operations against Russia in 2008 has caused the anger among the many citizens of Georgia.

Positive factors:

-          For the first time within the history of the Presidential elections in Georgia the second tour will be held, which has clearly shown the it exists the balance of power in population between ruling party and opposition, and due to the fact, that no one party can monopolize the power in the contemporary period can be positively reflected on the further development of pluralism and democracy in Georgia;

-          Taking into account, that more than 60% of participants at the elections voted for pro-western candidates (including part of the voters of Salome Zurabishvili), it has been clearly shown, that majority of population of Georgia supports the European and Euro-Atlantic integration of their native country; 

-          Elections has shown that the high concentration of power in the hand of one political party promotes the monopolization of power, which contradicts with the main principles of democracy. So, ruling party has seen, that Georgian society will never admit the violation of the principles of democracy and people can resist any attempt to abuse the power by anybody – even if this concrete personality is billionaire. Thus, more steps for the improvement of the living conditions of population should be done.  

Possible scenario of the situation development in the future

Taking into account, that 62% of voters voted against the candidate – who is supported by “Georgian Dream” – Ms. Salome Zurabishvili, and at the same time the former Presidential candidate – Mr. David Bakradze, who took 3-rd place with almost 11% of votes openly declared about support of Mr. Grigol Vashadze at the second tour - candidate of united opposition Mr. Vashadze, furthermore, based on new survey – having been implemented by “Edison Researc”, according to which the rate of Zurabishvili before the second tour is 44% and Vashadze 56%, the opposition candidate has more chance to be a final winner of the Presidential elections.

In this regard, particularly in case of the loosing the second tour of the presidential elections by the candidate of incumbent party, “Georgian Dream” will any way keep the power in the legislative and executive branches of power (Ruling party has constitutional majority at the parliament). But, the ruling party will have more responsibility before the society and will try to make some steps toward the resolving the socio-economic problems for the increasing the rate of the party before the parliamentary elections, which will be held in 2020. Otherwise, the ruling party will finally lose the power after the parliamentary elections and Georgia most probably will have multiparty parliament with coalition government (which is good for democracy).

“Georgian Dream” will be able to declare that they followed the previous authorities, related to the recognition the victory of the opposition candidate and delivered the power of President to the elected by people politician by peaceful means. Thus, it can be the third precedent (as a result of two parliamentary elections: in 1990 opposition block “Round Table Free Georgia” gained the victory over the communist party and in 2012 “Georgian dream” came to the power by gaining 54% of voters support) of the changing the power by peaceful means. This factor can only increase the authority of Georgia as a democratic state, where the delivery of power to opposition by peaceful means is possible. In this case, ruling party will have an opportunity to declare, that it respects the will of the people and will be concentrated to the parliamentary elections, which will be (or should be held) held in 2020.

From the other side, there are possibilities of the victory the second tour by Salome Zurabishvili. In favor of this version necessary to underline, that majority of employees from the different public and governmental agencies on the central and municipal level support the candidature of Zurabishvili. One of the pro-russian oriented political party, which is represented at the parliament of Georgia (during the last parliamentary elections it gained 5% of voters) – “Patriots Alliance” openly declared about supporting the Zurabishvili`s candidature at the second tour. So, In case of victory of Ms. Salome Zurabishvili and recognition by local and international observers – that election and voting procedure satisfied the democratic standards, opposition will be also obliged to recognize the results of election and concentrate its effort for the parliamentary elections – most probably by the taking additional efforts for the establishment coalition of more pro-western political parties, first of all between “United National Movement” and “European Georgia”.

In case of the fact, that Zurabishvili wins the second tour, but local and international observers declare, that voting procedure did not satisfy the democratic standards – for example ruling party used administrative resources, or implemented the pressure on citizens and carried out other illegal action, this factor can radically complicate the political situation in the country and cause the mass protests demonstrations in the different regions of Georgia. Starting the mass protests will be also possible, if Georgian authorities will refuse to recognize the victory of opposition candidate Mr. Grigol Vashadze. Furthermore, this factor can seriously effect from negative point of view on the relations with the western democratic community and further integration of Georgia to the European and Euro-Atlantic structures.       

At the same time, in case of victory Ms. Zurabishvili, ruling party will face with such problems, as deterioration the negotiations process with Russia. For example, In case of victory of Salome Zurabishvili, Russia could take advantage from her declaration about starting the war by Georgia in 2008, which would complicate the positions of Georgia during the Geneva process of negotiations with Russia and at the international arena too, because official Kremlin will use more actively its resources to assure the different countries in the world about existence of the legal base (like Kosovo) for the recognition the “independence” of Abkhazia and Tskhinvali district (so-called South Ossetia) based on the one of the main principles of International law- right of nation for self determination. Moscow will also declare, that victory of Salome Zurabishvili reflects not only her position, but position of the majority of population of Georgia – who by the electing Zurabishvili on the post of the President of Georgia shares her view who started the Georgia-Russia war in 2008.       

In general, taking into account the above-mentioned facts, it can be pointed out, that opposition candidate Mr. Vashadze has more chance to gain victory at the second tour. If ruling recognizes the results of the elections, before the parliamentary election Georgian society again will live under the conditions of cohabitation. Let`s consider the two versions of cohabitation. 

Conclusion. Two versions of cohabitation

In case of the victory of the opposition candidate Grigol Vashadze,  despite the decreasing the power of the president (as a result of the amendments in the constitution of Georgia), country will enter for the second time to the cohabitation process. First stage was, when in 2012 “Georgian Dream” gained the victory during the parliamentary elections by 54% of voters, when till 2013 President (M. Saakashvili) was representative of “National Movement” and Prime – Minister was representative of “Georgian Dream”, since 2018 before the next parliamentary elections President will be representative of the “United Opposition” and “Georgian Dream” will have the majority at the parliament, but in case within the period 2012-2013, majority of population supported “Georgian Dream”, within the period 2018-2020 majority of supporters in population will have United opposition, which will maximally try to force the ruling party in the organization of  the preliminary parliamentary elections.